Value
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.7 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.7 |
| PEG | 5.6 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 26.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.35
FND · Why this verdict
Why Floor & Decor Holdings (FND) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Declining revenue, below-threshold business quality, a confirmed long-term price downtrend, and peer-group-bottom rankings on both quality and growth combine to produce an exit signal; the risk/reward is unfavorable and no structural improvement has materialized to support the current price level.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality scores at 3.5, below the 4.0 minimum threshold, with free cash flow converting at only 40% of reported net income and no identified competitive moat; these combined deficiencies indicate the business lacks both cash generation strength and structural defensibility. Bear case | Quality rises above 4.5 and free cash flow increases above 70% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating structural improvement rather than a transient swing. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 suggests financial integrity at the balance-sheet level is not impaired; if operating margins stabilize, the quality score can recover without any change in competitive position. | ||
Quality and growth both rank at 0.0 among comparable peers — the absolute bottom of the group — indicating that even within its industry cohort, this business is the weakest on the two dimensions most predictive of long-term value creation. Peer rank | Peer-relative quality rank rises above 3.0 and growth rank rises above 2.0 within 4 quarters, demonstrating the gap to the peer group is meaningfully narrowing. | →Stable |
| CounterPeer rankings are inherently relative; if the broader sector weakens, the company's relative position may improve arithmetically without any absolute performance improvement — a ranking change alone would not validate the underlying fundamental thesis. | ||
Revenue is contracting at -1% year-over-year and the earnings growth dimension scores near the bottom of the range; the top line is declining rather than growing, which undermines any fundamental recovery argument at the current multiple. Growth breakdown | Revenue stabilizes and returns to positive year-over-year growth above 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the contraction has genuinely reversed. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThree of the four most recent quarters delivered positive earnings surprises; if the revenue decline has troughed and cost discipline holds, even modest top-line recovery could rerate expectations quickly. | ||
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average, which is itself declining at -7.1% over 30 days — a confirmed long-term downtrend — with falling on-balance volume providing additional distribution evidence. Momentum breakdown | The stock reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average for 6 consecutive weeks, and the moving average slope turns positive, signaling a genuine trend reversal rather than a countertrend bounce. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMACD is improving and RSI sits at 63, indicating a short-term price recovery is already underway; a death-cross setup recovering from a declining long-term average can generate sharp countertrend rallies that precede a broader trend change. | ||
Business quality scores at 3.5, below the 4.0 minimum threshold, with free cash flow converting at only 40% of reported net income and no identified competitive moat; these combined deficiencies indicate the business lacks both cash generation strength and structural defensibility.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Quality rises above 4.5 and free cash flow increases above 70% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating structural improvement rather than a transient swing.
CounterThe Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 suggests financial integrity at the balance-sheet level is not impaired; if operating margins stabilize, the quality score can recover without any change in competitive position.
Quality and growth both rank at 0.0 among comparable peers — the absolute bottom of the group — indicating that even within its industry cohort, this business is the weakest on the two dimensions most predictive of long-term value creation.
→StablePeer rank
- Expectation
- Peer-relative quality rank rises above 3.0 and growth rank rises above 2.0 within 4 quarters, demonstrating the gap to the peer group is meaningfully narrowing.
CounterPeer rankings are inherently relative; if the broader sector weakens, the company's relative position may improve arithmetically without any absolute performance improvement — a ranking change alone would not validate the underlying fundamental thesis.
Revenue is contracting at -1% year-over-year and the earnings growth dimension scores near the bottom of the range; the top line is declining rather than growing, which undermines any fundamental recovery argument at the current multiple.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue stabilizes and returns to positive year-over-year growth above 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the contraction has genuinely reversed.
CounterThree of the four most recent quarters delivered positive earnings surprises; if the revenue decline has troughed and cost discipline holds, even modest top-line recovery could rerate expectations quickly.
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average, which is itself declining at -7.1% over 30 days — a confirmed long-term downtrend — with falling on-balance volume providing additional distribution evidence.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average for 6 consecutive weeks, and the moving average slope turns positive, signaling a genuine trend reversal rather than a countertrend bounce.
CounterMACD is improving and RSI sits at 63, indicating a short-term price recovery is already underway; a death-cross setup recovering from a declining long-term average can generate sharp countertrend rallies that precede a broader trend change.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.2 |
| ROA | 2.2 |
| Gross margin | 5.1 |
| Op margin | 4.0 |
| Net margin | 2.5 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 5.4 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 70% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 8.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
- ▸Volume surge (2.5x avg) on up move
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.7 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.33 (n=5)
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $360,881 (0.006% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.0 |
| quality rank | 4.5 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 2.5 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (5.8%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.6 |
| days to cover | 4.4 |
| volatility | 2.0 |
| put call | 9.0 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 6.2 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 62%
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:88d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.2>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-1.36
Upside
-13.3%
Downside
9.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.36 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Momentum at 7.2, and Growth at 6.6; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.2, Technical at 2.5, and Quality at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue Decline Weak Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth turns positive and exceeds 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Below Floor Business Quality
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.5 and FCF-to-net-income ratio rises above 70% for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P3Confirmed Long Term Downtrend
Trip ifStock closes above the 200-day moving average and holds there for 6 consecutive weeks while the 200-day slope turns positive.
- P4Peer Group Bottom Rankings
Trip ifPeer-relative quality rank rises above 3.0 and growth rank rises above 2.0 within 4 consecutive quarterly reports.