Exceptional 39% year-over-year revenue growth and three consecutive recent earnings beats are credible positives, but 76.6% product concentration in optical communications, negative free cash flow conversion, and momentum below the minimum threshold combine to make the current setup unattractive for new positions.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Revenue Growth→Stable
- High Product Concentration Risk↑Improving
- Negative Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Fabrinet (FN) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Technology · Electronic Components
Wait for pullback to $544.81. At $572.95 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $544.81 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: optical communications (76.6%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Thailand.
Fabrinet provides precision optical and electro-mechanical manufacturing services to OEMs in optical communications (76.6% of fiscal 2025 revenue), automotive, and industrial lasers markets, primarily from Thailand. Revenue grew 18.6% to $3.42 billion in fiscal year 2025. In... Read more
Wait for pullback to $544.81. At $572.95 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $544.81 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: optical communications (76.6%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Thailand. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Fabrinet
Latest news
- NEWS Victory RS Small Cap Growth Fund's Fabrinet(FN) Holding History - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS Fabrinet (FN) price target increased by 14.58% to 677.22 - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS Fabrinet stock lags AI peers despite strong gro... - Pluang — Pluang negative
- NEWS Fabrinet: A Compelling AI Infrastructure Opportunity (NYSE:FN) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Wasatch Advisors LP Has $136.52 Million Stock Position in Fabrinet $FN - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-08-15T10:37:19Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductoptical communications77%10-K Item 1: 'Our percentage of revenues from optical communications products decreased from 79.4% in fiscal year 2024 to 76.6% in fiscal year 2025'
- HIGHGeographicThailand10-K Item 1: 'approximately 3.3 million square feet are located in Thailand'
- MEDIUMCustomersmall number of customers10-K Item 1A: 'Our sales depend on a small number of customers'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $544.81. At $572.95 the A.R:R is 0.8:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $544.81 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: optical communications (76.6%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Thailand. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $637.23 (+11.2%), stop $459.73 (−24.6%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $637.23 (+11.8% upside). Target $637.23 (+11.2%), stop $459.73 (−24.6%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $459.73.
Concentration risk — Product: optical communications (76.6%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Thailand.
Fabrinet trades at a P/E of 48.5 (forward 32.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
19 analysts cover FN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $732.
What does Fabrinet do?Fabrinet provides precision optical and electro-mechanical manufacturing services to OEMs in optical communications...
Fabrinet provides precision optical and electro-mechanical manufacturing services to OEMs in optical communications (76.6% of fiscal 2025 revenue), automotive, and industrial lasers markets, primarily from Thailand. Revenue grew 18.6% to $3.42 billion in fiscal year 2025. In many cases, Fabrinet is the sole outsourced manufacturing partner for the products it builds for OEM customers.