Value
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.5 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.21
- ▸Attractively valued
FIVN · Why this verdict
Why Five9 (FIVN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 5.5x and a PEG ratio of 0.18 suggest the market is ascribing little value to future earnings growth, creating a meaningful discount for investors with patience for a technical recovery. Valuation breakdown | Forward price-to-earnings multiple re-rates above 10x within 12 months as earnings growth is sustained, narrowing the gap to the analyst consensus target of $25.03. | →Stable |
| CounterA persistently low multiple alongside deteriorating price momentum and a confirmed death cross suggests the market may have already repriced this as a secularly challenged business — the discount may be rational rather than an opportunity. | ||
Free cash flow is running at 475% of net income, meaning the business is generating substantially more cash than GAAP earnings indicate — a quality signal that reported earnings understate true economic profitability. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow relative to net income remains above 200% for 2 consecutive reported periods, confirming the cash generation advantage is structural rather than one-time. | →Stable |
| CounterAn FCF-to-net-income ratio this far above 100% is unusual and may reflect timing differences, non-recurring working capital improvements, or low reinvestment requirements that are unsustainable rather than a persistent structural cash advantage. | ||
Four consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of 9% demonstrate disciplined execution and a degree of guidance conservatism that the market has not yet rewarded in the stock price. Earnings | The beat streak continues for at least 2 more quarters and the beat rate remains above 5% average surprise, affirming execution quality as earnings approach in 44 days. | →Stable |
| CounterWith earnings just 44 days away and technical signals deteriorating, even a beat accompanied by cautious guidance could accelerate selling from the already-elevated 12% short interest. | ||
A confirmed death cross, falling volume accumulation (declining OBV), and a momentum reading well below the minimum acceptable threshold collectively signal that price deterioration is not yet complete, making near-term entry unattractive despite the favorable fundamental picture. Warnings | Deterioration persists — OBV continues declining and price fails to reclaim the 200-day moving average within 90 days, confirming the technical pressure is not yet resolved. | →Stable |
| CounterDeath crosses produce false signals in fundamentally sound businesses; with deep value metrics and a strong beat streak, a single positive catalyst could trigger rapid short covering given the 12% short interest, making the technical headwind temporary. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 5.5x and a PEG ratio of 0.18 suggest the market is ascribing little value to future earnings growth, creating a meaningful discount for investors with patience for a technical recovery.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward price-to-earnings multiple re-rates above 10x within 12 months as earnings growth is sustained, narrowing the gap to the analyst consensus target of $25.03.
CounterA persistently low multiple alongside deteriorating price momentum and a confirmed death cross suggests the market may have already repriced this as a secularly challenged business — the discount may be rational rather than an opportunity.
Free cash flow is running at 475% of net income, meaning the business is generating substantially more cash than GAAP earnings indicate — a quality signal that reported earnings understate true economic profitability.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow relative to net income remains above 200% for 2 consecutive reported periods, confirming the cash generation advantage is structural rather than one-time.
CounterAn FCF-to-net-income ratio this far above 100% is unusual and may reflect timing differences, non-recurring working capital improvements, or low reinvestment requirements that are unsustainable rather than a persistent structural cash advantage.
Four consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of 9% demonstrate disciplined execution and a degree of guidance conservatism that the market has not yet rewarded in the stock price.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak continues for at least 2 more quarters and the beat rate remains above 5% average surprise, affirming execution quality as earnings approach in 44 days.
CounterWith earnings just 44 days away and technical signals deteriorating, even a beat accompanied by cautious guidance could accelerate selling from the already-elevated 12% short interest.
A confirmed death cross, falling volume accumulation (declining OBV), and a momentum reading well below the minimum acceptable threshold collectively signal that price deterioration is not yet complete, making near-term entry unattractive despite the favorable fundamental picture.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Deterioration persists — OBV continues declining and price fails to reclaim the 200-day moving average within 90 days, confirming the technical pressure is not yet resolved.
CounterDeath crosses produce false signals in fundamentally sound businesses; with deep value metrics and a strong beat streak, a single positive catalyst could trigger rapid short covering given the 12% short interest, making the technical headwind temporary.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Exceptional free cash flow conversion at 475% of net income and a PEG ratio of 0.18 signal deep fundamental value in a consistently executing business, but a confirmed death cross, falling volume accumulation, and a 12% short interest create material near-term technical risk that argues for patience despite the 21% upside to analyst targets.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.6 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 7.1 |
| Op margin | 2.4 |
| Net margin | 2.4 |
| Current ratio | 8.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 475% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
Momentum
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,014,135 (0.112% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 2.9 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.6 |
| support resistance | 3.2 |
| 52w position | 5.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.9 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.2 |
| debt equity | 5.2 |
- ▸High IV: 82%
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.1 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.45
Upside
+6.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 27d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.45>1.3, MCap $1.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.3; weakest: Peer rank at 3.3. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.3, Momentum at 7.3, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.3, Technical at 3.4, and Insider at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.45 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Low Multiple
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple rises above 15x on expanding earnings estimates, compressing the current discount below actionable levels.
- P2Exceptional Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow relative to net income falls below 100% for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P3Consistent Earnings Outperformance
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Technical Breakdown Hard Block
Trip if50-day moving average crosses above 200-day moving average and OBV rises above its 30-day average for 20 consecutive days, reversing the confirmed downtrend.