Value
6.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.0 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.50
FCN · Why this verdict
Why FTI Consulting (FCN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Three of the last four quarters came in ahead of consensus with an average positive surprise of approximately 14%, reflecting a pattern of delivering results above expectations — though the most recent quarter reversed this pattern with a miss of roughly 8%. Earnings | EPS beats resume in the next two quarters, with average positive surprise returning above 5% on a trailing four-quarter basis. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter's miss signals the beat pattern may be breaking down; two back-to-back misses would dismantle the earnings support narrative and call the 14% average surprise into question. | ||
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with the average slope declining at approximately 1.1% over the past month — a configuration consistent with a confirmed downtrend — while a death cross has triggered a hard technical block against new exposure. Momentum breakdown | For momentum to improve, the 200-day moving average slope would need to flatten and turn positive while price re-establishes sustainably above that level. | →Stable |
| CounterThe MACD has been showing internal improvement and the RSI has climbed to 58, suggesting early recovery momentum that could precede a technical reversal even while the moving average remains suppressed. | ||
With the stock sitting just 2% below its resistance-derived take-profit target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.31-to-1, the current entry geometry offers nearly no reward relative to the downside — a setup well below any reasonable asymmetry threshold. Price targets | A reset to an attractive setup would require the stock to pull back such that upside to the take-profit target expands beyond 15%, restoring a reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5-to-1. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the underlying business trajectory improves and analyst price targets are revised upward, the take-profit ceiling could shift materially higher, reopening upside without requiring a price correction. | ||
The company carries a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9, indicating broad-based accounting strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency — a quality floor that limits the probability of a fundamental deterioration scenario. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or 9 over the next four quarters, with free cash flow quality score sustaining above 5. | →Stable |
| CounterA high Piotroski score does not protect against multiple compression; with price momentum in a confirmed downtrend, even strong financial quality may not attract incremental buyers in the near term. | ||
Three of the last four quarters came in ahead of consensus with an average positive surprise of approximately 14%, reflecting a pattern of delivering results above expectations — though the most recent quarter reversed this pattern with a miss of roughly 8%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats resume in the next two quarters, with average positive surprise returning above 5% on a trailing four-quarter basis.
CounterThe most recent quarter's miss signals the beat pattern may be breaking down; two back-to-back misses would dismantle the earnings support narrative and call the 14% average surprise into question.
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with the average slope declining at approximately 1.1% over the past month — a configuration consistent with a confirmed downtrend — while a death cross has triggered a hard technical block against new exposure.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- For momentum to improve, the 200-day moving average slope would need to flatten and turn positive while price re-establishes sustainably above that level.
CounterThe MACD has been showing internal improvement and the RSI has climbed to 58, suggesting early recovery momentum that could precede a technical reversal even while the moving average remains suppressed.
With the stock sitting just 2% below its resistance-derived take-profit target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.31-to-1, the current entry geometry offers nearly no reward relative to the downside — a setup well below any reasonable asymmetry threshold.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A reset to an attractive setup would require the stock to pull back such that upside to the take-profit target expands beyond 15%, restoring a reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5-to-1.
CounterIf the underlying business trajectory improves and analyst price targets are revised upward, the take-profit ceiling could shift materially higher, reopening upside without requiring a price correction.
The company carries a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9, indicating broad-based accounting strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency — a quality floor that limits the probability of a fundamental deterioration scenario.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or 9 over the next four quarters, with free cash flow quality score sustaining above 5.
CounterA high Piotroski score does not protect against multiple compression; with price momentum in a confirmed downtrend, even strong financial quality may not attract incremental buyers in the near term.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
FTI Consulting has demonstrated consistent earnings outperformance in three of the last four quarters, but a confirmed price downtrend, a death cross technical breakdown, and a near-exhausted take-profit target combine to make the current reward-to-risk geometry unattractive for new exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 4.8 |
| Gross margin | 2.4 |
| Op margin | 3.4 |
| Net margin | 3.4 |
| Current ratio | 7.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.3 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
| EPS growth | 3.8 |
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $2,076,584 (0.045% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 3.6 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.3 |
| support resistance | 3.7 |
| 52w position | 6.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.1 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| put call | 9.3 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| debt equity | 7.4 |
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.33
Upside
-3.4%
Downside
10.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 26d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 6.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.33 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.8, Insider at 6.5, and Catalyst at 6.5; the weakest are Momentum at 4.1, Peer rank at 4.2, and Growth at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.33 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Track Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Confirmed Price Downtrend
Trip ifPrice reclaims the 200-day moving average and the MA slope turns positive above 0% for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P3Exhausted Reward Risk Geometry
Trip ifUpside to the resistance-based take-profit target expands beyond 15% from current price, with reward-to-risk ratio crossing above 1.5-to-1.
- P4Financial Health Quality Floor
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 7 for 2 consecutive quarterly reporting periods.