Value
6.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.7 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.58
FCN · Why this verdict
Why FTI Consulting (FCN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
FTI Consulting has demonstrated consistent earnings outperformance in three of the last four quarters, but a confirmed price downtrend, a death cross technical breakdown, and a near-exhausted take-profit target combine to make the current reward-to-risk geometry unattractive for new exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Three of the last four quarters came in ahead of consensus with an average positive surprise of approximately 14%, reflecting a pattern of delivering results above expectations — though the most recent quarter reversed this pattern with a miss of roughly 8%. Earnings | EPS beats resume in the next two quarters, with average positive surprise returning above 5% on a trailing four-quarter basis. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter's miss signals the beat pattern may be breaking down; two back-to-back misses would dismantle the earnings support narrative and call the 14% average surprise into question. | ||
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with the average slope declining at approximately 1.1% over the past month — a configuration consistent with a confirmed downtrend — while a death cross has triggered a hard technical block against new exposure. Momentum breakdown | For momentum to improve, the 200-day moving average slope would need to flatten and turn positive while price re-establishes sustainably above that level. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe MACD has been showing internal improvement and the RSI has climbed to 58, suggesting early recovery momentum that could precede a technical reversal even while the moving average remains suppressed. | ||
With the stock sitting just 2% below its resistance-derived take-profit target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.31-to-1, the current entry geometry offers nearly no reward relative to the downside — a setup well below any reasonable asymmetry threshold. Price targets | A reset to an attractive setup would require the stock to pull back such that upside to the take-profit target expands beyond 15%, restoring a reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5-to-1. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterIf the underlying business trajectory improves and analyst price targets are revised upward, the take-profit ceiling could shift materially higher, reopening upside without requiring a price correction. | ||
The company carries a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9, indicating broad-based accounting strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency — a quality floor that limits the probability of a fundamental deterioration scenario. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or 9 over the next four quarters, with free cash flow quality score sustaining above 5. | →Stable |
| CounterA high Piotroski score does not protect against multiple compression; with price momentum in a confirmed downtrend, even strong financial quality may not attract incremental buyers in the near term. | ||
Three of the last four quarters came in ahead of consensus with an average positive surprise of approximately 14%, reflecting a pattern of delivering results above expectations — though the most recent quarter reversed this pattern with a miss of roughly 8%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats resume in the next two quarters, with average positive surprise returning above 5% on a trailing four-quarter basis.
CounterThe most recent quarter's miss signals the beat pattern may be breaking down; two back-to-back misses would dismantle the earnings support narrative and call the 14% average surprise into question.
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with the average slope declining at approximately 1.1% over the past month — a configuration consistent with a confirmed downtrend — while a death cross has triggered a hard technical block against new exposure.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- For momentum to improve, the 200-day moving average slope would need to flatten and turn positive while price re-establishes sustainably above that level.
CounterThe MACD has been showing internal improvement and the RSI has climbed to 58, suggesting early recovery momentum that could precede a technical reversal even while the moving average remains suppressed.
With the stock sitting just 2% below its resistance-derived take-profit target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.31-to-1, the current entry geometry offers nearly no reward relative to the downside — a setup well below any reasonable asymmetry threshold.
Tripped↓DeterioratingPrice targets
- Expectation
- A reset to an attractive setup would require the stock to pull back such that upside to the take-profit target expands beyond 15%, restoring a reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5-to-1.
CounterIf the underlying business trajectory improves and analyst price targets are revised upward, the take-profit ceiling could shift materially higher, reopening upside without requiring a price correction.
The company carries a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9, indicating broad-based accounting strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency — a quality floor that limits the probability of a fundamental deterioration scenario.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or 9 over the next four quarters, with free cash flow quality score sustaining above 5.
CounterA high Piotroski score does not protect against multiple compression; with price momentum in a confirmed downtrend, even strong financial quality may not attract incremental buyers in the near term.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 4.8 |
| Gross margin | 2.4 |
| Op margin | 3.4 |
| Net margin | 3.4 |
| Current ratio | 7.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.3 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
| EPS growth | 3.8 |
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 6.3 |
| MA position | 6.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $2,076,584 (0.042% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 3.6 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.7 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.0 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 5.1 |
| debt equity | 7.4 |
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 10 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (3)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.2>=5.0 recovering
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:10d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.67
Upside
-10.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 10d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5. Top dim: Insider at 7.9; weakest: Technical at 3.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.9, Value at 6.6, and Catalyst at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Growth at 4.3, and Peer rank at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.67 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Track Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Confirmed Price Downtrend
Trip ifPrice reclaims the 200-day moving average and the MA slope turns positive above 0% for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P3Exhausted Reward Risk GeometryTripped
Trip ifUpside to the resistance-based take-profit target expands beyond 15% from current price, with reward-to-risk ratio crossing above 1.5-to-1.
- P4Financial Health Quality Floor
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 7 for 2 consecutive quarterly reporting periods.