Empire State Realty operates at a cash-flow multiple of 6.3x with exceptional free cash conversion at 389% of net income, but the stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend with hard gate failures on both momentum and a death cross, and the balanced risk/reward offers no asymmetric upside—making the value case an anchor waiting for a technical catalyst rather than a current entry opportunity.
Thesis pillars
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend→Stable
- Attractive Cash Flow Valuation→Stable
- Exceptional Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Empire State Realty OP, L.P. Se (ESBA) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge
Real Estate · REIT - Office
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $5.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: New York City; Concentration risk — Property Type: three largest properties (55.6%).
Empire State Realty OP, L.P. is the operating partnership through which Empire State Realty Trust operates a New York City-focused REIT portfolio of approximately 7.9 million square feet of office space, 0.8 million square feet of retail, and 743 residential units, anchored by... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $5.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: New York City; Concentration risk — Property Type: three largest properties (55.6%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — Empire State Realty OP, L.P. Se
Latest news
- NEWS AEVEX, Abivax, Watts Water Technologies And Other Big Stocks Moving Higher On Tuesday — benzinga Jun 30, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-07T11:31:43Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicNew York City10-K Item 1A: 'Our commercial portfolio is comprised of properties in New York City.'
- HIGHPropertythree largest properties56%10-K Item 1A: 'For the year ended December 31, 2025, three of our properties together accounted for approximately 55.6% of our portfolio's rental revenues'
- MEDIUMPropertyEmpire State Building32%10-K Item 1A: 'three of our properties together accounted for approximately 55.6% of our portfolio's rental revenues, with the Empire State Building individually accounting for approximately 32.3%.'
- LOWTenantfive largest tenants17%10-K Item 1A: 'As of December 31, 2025, our five largest tenants together represented approximately 17.4% of our total commercial portfolio's annualized rent'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $5.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: New York City; Concentration risk — Property Type: three largest properties (55.6%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $6.29 (+11.5%), stop $5.25 (−7.4%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $6.29 (+11.5% upside). Target $6.29 (+11.5%), stop $5.25 (−7.4%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $5.25.
Concentration risk — Geographic: New York City; Concentration risk — Property Type: three largest properties (55.6%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.
Empire State Realty OP, L.P. Se trades at a P/E of 26.9 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Hold.
What does Empire State Realty OP, L.P. Se do?Empire State Realty OP, L.P. is the operating partnership through which Empire State Realty Trust operates a New York...
Empire State Realty OP, L.P. is the operating partnership through which Empire State Realty Trust operates a New York City-focused REIT portfolio of approximately 7.9 million square feet of office space, 0.8 million square feet of retail, and 743 residential units, anchored by the Empire State Building and its Observatory attraction. The Empire State Building alone generated approximately 32.3% of the portfolio's 2025 rental revenue, with three properties combined accounting for 55.6%, while the top five commercial tenants represented 17.4% of annualized rent.