Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.9 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.43
- ▸Attractively valued
EPAC · Why this verdict
Why Enerpac Tool Group (EPAC) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A high-severity supplier concentration risk is flagged in the company's annual disclosures, indicating reliance on a single or limited set of suppliers that creates supply chain vulnerability and potential margin pressure if supplier terms deteriorate or supply is disrupted. Risk breakdown | No supply chain disruptions materialize that compress gross margin by more than 200 basis points from current levels over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSupplier concentration is a disclosed and managed risk for specialty industrial manufacturers; the business has evidently operated successfully with this structure — evidenced by a 9/9 Piotroski score — suggesting meaningful resilience to this risk in practice. | ||
The business has earned a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and a growth-adjusted valuation multiple of 0.44 — meaning each unit of expected earnings growth is priced inexpensively — providing a quality foundation that supports maintaining current exposure in the absence of structural deterioration. Valuation breakdown | The forward earnings multiple expands toward the peer average as earnings growth is delivered, reducing the discount embedded in the current 16.2x forward P/E. | →Stable |
| CounterThe valuation discount may widen if earnings disappoint in the upcoming report; a miss would reset growth expectations and potentially compress the multiple further, eroding the quality-at-value case. | ||
Despite a prior technical death cross, momentum has recovered to 6.6 — above the 5.5 threshold — with MACD improving and RSI at a constructive 55, suggesting the most acute selling pressure may have passed and a base is forming. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day moving average slope turns from the current -2.2% per month to flat or positive within 6 months, confirming that short-term momentum improvement is translating into trend repair. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 200-day moving average is still declining at -2.2% per month — a confirmed downtrend — meaning the momentum improvement is nascent and could reverse quickly if the upcoming earnings report disappoints. | ||
With an earnings report due in 9 days, the near-term price path is largely determined by a single data point; the recent record shows the most recent result was in-line, followed by a miss the quarter before, then two earlier beats — a mixed pattern that makes the outcome difficult to forecast with confidence. Earnings | The company delivers an EPS beat in the upcoming report and provides guidance that stabilizes or raises analyst estimates. | →Stable |
| CounterA second consecutive non-beat outcome following the most recent in-line and prior miss could reinforce negative sentiment and reset the recovery narrative, potentially accelerating the technical downtrend before it has fully repaired. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the average still declining at -2.2% per month, confirming a structural downtrend that has not reversed despite improving near-term indicators — an overhang that can delay or limit any re-rating even as fundamental quality holds. Bear case | Price closes above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns flat or positive, with the close sustained for more than 30 consecutive days. | →Stable |
| CounterStocks with strong underlying quality and inexpensive valuations can lag the broader market for extended periods and then recover sharply; the technical overhang does not necessarily predict fundamental deterioration. | ||
A high-severity supplier concentration risk is flagged in the company's annual disclosures, indicating reliance on a single or limited set of suppliers that creates supply chain vulnerability and potential margin pressure if supplier terms deteriorate or supply is disrupted.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- No supply chain disruptions materialize that compress gross margin by more than 200 basis points from current levels over the next 12 months.
CounterSupplier concentration is a disclosed and managed risk for specialty industrial manufacturers; the business has evidently operated successfully with this structure — evidenced by a 9/9 Piotroski score — suggesting meaningful resilience to this risk in practice.
The business has earned a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and a growth-adjusted valuation multiple of 0.44 — meaning each unit of expected earnings growth is priced inexpensively — providing a quality foundation that supports maintaining current exposure in the absence of structural deterioration.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward earnings multiple expands toward the peer average as earnings growth is delivered, reducing the discount embedded in the current 16.2x forward P/E.
CounterThe valuation discount may widen if earnings disappoint in the upcoming report; a miss would reset growth expectations and potentially compress the multiple further, eroding the quality-at-value case.
Despite a prior technical death cross, momentum has recovered to 6.6 — above the 5.5 threshold — with MACD improving and RSI at a constructive 55, suggesting the most acute selling pressure may have passed and a base is forming.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope turns from the current -2.2% per month to flat or positive within 6 months, confirming that short-term momentum improvement is translating into trend repair.
CounterThe 200-day moving average is still declining at -2.2% per month — a confirmed downtrend — meaning the momentum improvement is nascent and could reverse quickly if the upcoming earnings report disappoints.
With an earnings report due in 9 days, the near-term price path is largely determined by a single data point; the recent record shows the most recent result was in-line, followed by a miss the quarter before, then two earlier beats — a mixed pattern that makes the outcome difficult to forecast with confidence.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company delivers an EPS beat in the upcoming report and provides guidance that stabilizes or raises analyst estimates.
CounterA second consecutive non-beat outcome following the most recent in-line and prior miss could reinforce negative sentiment and reset the recovery narrative, potentially accelerating the technical downtrend before it has fully repaired.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the average still declining at -2.2% per month, confirming a structural downtrend that has not reversed despite improving near-term indicators — an overhang that can delay or limit any re-rating even as fundamental quality holds.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Price closes above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns flat or positive, with the close sustained for more than 30 consecutive days.
CounterStocks with strong underlying quality and inexpensive valuations can lag the broader market for extended periods and then recover sharply; the technical overhang does not necessarily predict fundamental deterioration.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
This specialty industrial machinery company carries strong underlying quality and an attractively growth-adjusted valuation, but the technical setup remains cautious — a confirmed long-term downtrend, an imminent earnings report, and high supplier concentration mean the current posture is maintenance, not accumulation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.0 |
| ROA | 7.1 |
| Gross margin | 5.9 |
| Op margin | 7.3 |
| Net margin | 6.8 |
| Current ratio | 8.7 |
| FCF quality | 7.7 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 9.4 |
Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 2.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 45%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.3 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 3.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.1 |
| support resistance | 5.7 |
| 52w position | 5.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.4 |
| beta | 7.9 |
| debt equity | 8.2 |
- ▸High IV: 71%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 3 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
- ▸Dividend: 11.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCKPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.71
Upside
+23.1%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.8B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Value at 7.8 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Quality at 7.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 2.6, Peer rank at 4.6, and Catalyst at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.71 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality And Growth Adjusted Value
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 12x following 2 consecutive earnings misses.
- P2Momentum Recovery In Progress
Trip ifMomentum score drops below 5.5 after having previously recovered above it.
- P3Imminent Earnings Binary Risk
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% in the upcoming earnings report.
- P4Supplier Concentration Operational Risk
Trip ifGross margin compresses more than 200 basis points below the prior-year quarter for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Confirmed Downtrend Technical Overhang
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average and stays above for more than 30 consecutive days.