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EMAEmera IncorporatedSell4.4·$51.51+0.33%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Emera has built strong price momentum — a golden cross with rising volume accumulation — and has beaten consensus earnings estimates in three of the four most recent quarters, but the stock has already moved above the price target with negative remaining headroom, free cash flow is deeply negative relative to net income, and the dividend carries an unsafe yield warning, making the current setup one that favors patience rather than fresh capital.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Price Momentum BreakoutStable
  • Free Cash Flow Deeply NegativeDeteriorating
  • Price Above Target No UpsideStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Emera Incorporated (EMA) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

Sell if holding. At $51.51, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 3.1%.

Emera Incorporated, an energy and services company, invests in generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity in the United States, Canada, Barbados, and the Bahamas. The company operates through Florida Electric Utility, Canadian Electric Utilities, Gas Utilities and... Read more

$51.51+3.1% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#42 of 42 Utilities - Regulated Electric
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-9.10%
IncomeYield4.09%(5y avg 4.92%)Payout92.78%at-risk
Stop $49.73Target $53.12(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$62.50+21.3%2 analysts
$53.12our TP
$51.51price
$62.50mean
$72

Sell if holding. At $51.51, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 3.1%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Nov 6, 202683d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.1%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0
Weak overall score: 4.4/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.5
P/E (Fwd)19.7
Mkt Cap$15.8B
EV/EBITDA11.4
Profit Mgn11.6%
ROE7.6%
Rev Growth1.2%
Beta0.45
Dividend4.09%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C99.67bearish
IV60%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.8
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
27 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $49.19Resistance $54.85

Price Targets

$50
$53
A.Upside+3.1%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.6 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-06 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EMA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $51.51, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 3.1%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $49.73. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

What is the EMA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $53.12 (+3.1% upside). Prior stop was $49.73. Stop-loss: $49.73.

What are the risks of investing in EMA?

Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -1.0; Weak overall score: 4.4/10.

Is EMA overvalued or undervalued?

Emera Incorporated trades at a P/E of 22.5 (forward 19.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EMA?

20 analysts cover EMA with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $63.

What does Emera Incorporated do?Emera Incorporated, an energy and services company, invests in generation, transmission, and distribution of...

Emera Incorporated, an energy and services company, invests in generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity in the United States, Canada, Barbados, and the Bahamas. The company operates through Florida Electric Utility, Canadian Electric Utilities, Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, Other Electric Utilities, and Other segments. It is involved in the purchase, transmission, distribution, and sale of natural gas; and physical energy marketing, trading, and other energy asset management activities. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Halifax, Canada.

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