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ELEElemental Royalty CorporationSell5.5·$21.01-1.41%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The company reports exceptional top-line growth of 109% year-over-year and a Rule of 40 score of 58, suggesting a fast-expanding business, but four consecutive earnings misses averaging a -43% negative surprise and deeply negative free cash flow at -51% of revenue reveal that growth is not translating into anticipated profitability — the thesis rests on a turnaround in execution that has not yet materialized.

Thesis pillars

  • Wide Analyst Upside AsymmetryImproving
  • Exceptional Revenue Growth ProfileStable
  • Persistent Earnings Execution FailureDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Elemental Royalty Corporation (ELE) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.01: Risk below floor (2.4 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 6.14; Rich valuation.

Elemental Royalty Corporation engages in the acquisition and generation of precious and base metal royalties. It is also involved in exploration royalties and royalty generation assets. The company holds royalties in gold, silver, copper, and precious metal projects. In... Read more

$21.01+7.3% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#32 of 42 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield-2.72%
Stop $20.14Target $23.23(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$27.33+30.1%3 analysts
$23.23our TP
$21.01price
$27.33mean
$33

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.01: Risk below floor (2.4 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 6.14; Rich valuation. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 12, 202669d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Risk below floor (2.4 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)51.6
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA33.5
Profit Mgn4.0%
ROE0.6%
Rev Growth161.6%
Beta0.47
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C6.14bearish
IV101%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Days To Cover
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Volatility
2.0
Beta
10.0
Elevated put/call: 6.14High IV: 101%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Ev Ebitda
0.0
Forward Pe
2.2
Analyst Target
6.0
Peg Ratio
10.0
Forward P/E: 51.6xPEG: 0.08
GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $18.64Resistance $22.89

Price Targets

$20
$23
A.Upside+7.3%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (2.4 < 3.0)
! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-12 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ELE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.01: Risk below floor (2.4 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 6.14; Rich valuation. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $20.14. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ELE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $23.23 (+7.3% upside). Prior stop was $20.14. Stop-loss: $20.14.

What are the risks of investing in ELE?

Risk below floor (2.4 < 3.0).

Is ELE overvalued or undervalued?

Elemental Royalty Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 51.6). TrendMatrix value score: 3.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ELE?

9 analysts cover ELE with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $27.

What does Elemental Royalty Corporation do?Elemental Royalty Corporation engages in the acquisition and generation of precious and base metal royalties. It is...

Elemental Royalty Corporation engages in the acquisition and generation of precious and base metal royalties. It is also involved in exploration royalties and royalty generation assets. The company holds royalties in gold, silver, copper, and precious metal projects. In addition, it operates in North America; South America; Australia; Africa; and internationally. The company was formerly known as Elemental Altus Royalties Corp. and changed its name to Elemental Royalty Corporation in November 2025. The company is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Related stocks: OGC (OceanaGold Corporation) · ARIS (Aris Mining Corporation) · CMCL (Caledonia Mining Corporation Pl) · GAU (Galiano Gold Inc.) · MAKO (Mako Mining Corp)
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