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ELEElemental Royalty CorporationSell5.9·$15.70+0.38%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The company reports exceptional top-line growth of 109% year-over-year and a Rule of 40 score of 58, suggesting a fast-expanding business, but four consecutive earnings misses averaging a -43% negative surprise and deeply negative free cash flow at -51% of revenue reveal that growth is not translating into anticipated profitability — the thesis rests on a turnaround in execution that has not yet materialized.

Thesis pillars

  • Wide Analyst Upside AsymmetryDeteriorating
  • Exceptional Revenue Growth ProfileStable
  • Persistent Earnings Execution FailureStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Elemental Royalty Corporation (ELE) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Other Precious Metals & Mining

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $15.70. Consecutive earnings misses (4).

Elemental Royalty Corporation engages in the acquisition and generation of precious and base metal royalties. It is also involved in exploration royalties and royalty generation assets. The company holds royalties in gold, silver, copper, and precious metal projects. In... Read more

$15.70+50.7% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#7 of 14 Other Precious Metals & Mining
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield-2.82%
IncomeYield0.77%Payout0.00%sustainable
Stop $14.60Target $23.66(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 4.5:1
Analyst target$27.83+77.3%3 analysts
$23.66our TP
$15.70price
$27.83mean
$33

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $15.70. Consecutive earnings misses (4). Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 17d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 11, 202617d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 51%
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)33.6
Mkt Cap$1.0B
EV/EBITDA31.1
Profit Mgn-1.1%
ROE-0.1%
Rev Growth109.0%
Beta0.47
Dividend0.77%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV106%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.3
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5A.R:R 4.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 17d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Speculative
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $14.10Resistance $18.79

Price Targets

$15
$24
A.Upside+50.7%
A.R:R4.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-11 (17d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ELE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $15.70. Consecutive earnings misses (4). Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $14.60. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ELE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $23.66 (+50.7% upside). Prior stop was $14.60. Stop-loss: $14.60.

What are the risks of investing in ELE?

Consecutive earnings misses (4).

Is ELE overvalued or undervalued?

Elemental Royalty Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 33.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ELE?

9 analysts cover ELE with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $28.

What does Elemental Royalty Corporation do?Elemental Royalty Corporation engages in the acquisition and generation of precious and base metal royalties. It is...

Elemental Royalty Corporation engages in the acquisition and generation of precious and base metal royalties. It is also involved in exploration royalties and royalty generation assets. The company holds royalties in gold, silver, copper, and precious metal projects. In addition, it operates in North America; South America; Australia; Africa; and internationally. The company was formerly known as Elemental Altus Royalties Corp. and changed its name to Elemental Royalty Corporation in November 2025. The company is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

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