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ELEElemental Royalty CorporationSell5.7·$22.00+7.26%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The company reports exceptional top-line growth of 109% year-over-year and a Rule of 40 score of 58, suggesting a fast-expanding business, but four consecutive earnings misses averaging a -43% negative surprise and deeply negative free cash flow at -51% of revenue reveal that growth is not translating into anticipated profitability — the thesis rests on a turnaround in execution that has not yet materialized.

Thesis pillars

  • Wide Analyst Upside AsymmetryDeteriorating
  • Exceptional Revenue Growth ProfileStable
  • Persistent Earnings Execution FailureImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Elemental Royalty Corporation (ELE) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Other Precious Metals & Mining

Sell if holding. At $22.00, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Euphoria warning: extreme positivity (+1.00) + overbought RSI 83.

Elemental Royalty Corporation engages in the acquisition and generation of precious and base metal royalties. It is also involved in exploration royalties and royalty generation assets. The company holds royalties in gold, silver, copper, and precious metal projects. In... Read more

$22.00+12.3% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#10 of 13 Other Precious Metals & Mining
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield-2.87%
IncomeYield0.58%Payout0.00%sustainable
Stop $19.59Target $23.66(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$27.83+26.5%3 analysts
$23.66our TP
$22.00price
$27.83mean
$33

Sell if holding. At $22.00, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Euphoria warning: extreme positivity (+1.00) + overbought RSI 83. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 12, 202690d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Euphoria warning: extreme positivity (+1.00) + overbought RSI 83
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)48.9
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA31.6
Profit Mgn4.0%
ROE0.6%
Rev Growth161.6%
Beta0.47
Dividend0.58%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.33bearish
IV150%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.3
Support Resistance
0.7
Gap
5.0
52w Position
5.7

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.3
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Ev Ebitda
0.0
Forward Pe
2.4
Analyst Target
6.0
Peg Ratio
10.0
Forward P/E: 48.9xPEG: 0.07
GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
83 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $14.37Resistance $21.55

Price Targets

$20
$24
A.Upside+12.3%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-12 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ELE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $22.00, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Euphoria warning: extreme positivity (+1.00) + overbought RSI 83. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $19.59. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ELE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $23.66 (+12.3% upside). Prior stop was $19.59. Stop-loss: $19.59.

What are the risks of investing in ELE?

Consecutive earnings misses (3); Euphoria warning: extreme positivity (+1.00) + overbought RSI 83; Expensive valuation.

Is ELE overvalued or undervalued?

Elemental Royalty Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 48.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ELE?

9 analysts cover ELE with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $28.

What does Elemental Royalty Corporation do?Elemental Royalty Corporation engages in the acquisition and generation of precious and base metal royalties. It is...

Elemental Royalty Corporation engages in the acquisition and generation of precious and base metal royalties. It is also involved in exploration royalties and royalty generation assets. The company holds royalties in gold, silver, copper, and precious metal projects. In addition, it operates in North America; South America; Australia; Africa; and internationally. The company was formerly known as Elemental Altus Royalties Corp. and changed its name to Elemental Royalty Corporation in November 2025. The company is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

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