Value
8.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.7x
- ▸Attractively valued
ECHO · Why this verdict
Why EchoStar (ECHO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
EchoStar looks cheap at a 5.8x forward P/E with 27.2% upside to the analyst target, but it is cash-burning (free cash flow at -129% of revenue), revenue is shrinking 4%, and the chart is in a confirmed downtrend with 22% short interest.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
EchoStar is burning cash, with free cash flow at -129% of revenue and no competitive moat, leaving quality at 2.6 versus a 4.0 floor. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow burn narrows from -129% of revenue and quality rises above 4.0 over ~12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA telecom restructuring can need years of heavy spending before cash flow turns, and negative net income and ROE show no near-term path to self-funding. | ||
Revenue is declining, down 4% YoY, with quarterly revenue sliding from $4.16B in late 2023 to $3.58B in the latest quarter. Growth breakdown | Revenue stabilizes near the $3.47B next-quarter estimate and stops declining within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA multi-year slide from $4.16B to $3.58B suggests structural subscriber losses, so stabilization may not arrive and cheap multiples would be a value trap. | ||
A forward P/E of 5.8x and analyst target of $113.27 (27.2% above the $89.08 price) mark the stock as attractively valued. Analyst target | Price moves toward the $113.27 analyst target as forward earnings are delivered. | ↑Improving |
| CounterCoverage is light so the signal is dampened, and a low forward multiple on a company that just missed by 94.9% may rest on estimates that never materialize. | ||
The chart shows a death cross, price below all moving averages, RSI 38 and bearish MACD, while short interest is 22% and institutions are reducing. Key risks | Price reclaims its 200-day average and short interest falls from 22% over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising on-balance volume signals accumulation, and heavy short interest can fuel a squeeze, so the downtrend may reverse sharply around earnings. | ||
EchoStar's last report on 2026-08-03 missed EPS badly (actual 0.14 vs estimate 2.62), after two beats on large losses, with the next report due 2026-11-05. Last 4 quarters | EPS lands at or above estimates at the 2026-11-05 report, restoring a beat streak. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEarnings history is erratic, with extreme surprises both ways; a beat on a negative estimate says little about the underlying business. | ||
EchoStar is burning cash, with free cash flow at -129% of revenue and no competitive moat, leaving quality at 2.6 versus a 4.0 floor.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow burn narrows from -129% of revenue and quality rises above 4.0 over ~12 months.
CounterA telecom restructuring can need years of heavy spending before cash flow turns, and negative net income and ROE show no near-term path to self-funding.
Revenue is declining, down 4% YoY, with quarterly revenue sliding from $4.16B in late 2023 to $3.58B in the latest quarter.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue stabilizes near the $3.47B next-quarter estimate and stops declining within 12 months.
CounterA multi-year slide from $4.16B to $3.58B suggests structural subscriber losses, so stabilization may not arrive and cheap multiples would be a value trap.
A forward P/E of 5.8x and analyst target of $113.27 (27.2% above the $89.08 price) mark the stock as attractively valued.
↑ImprovingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $113.27 analyst target as forward earnings are delivered.
CounterCoverage is light so the signal is dampened, and a low forward multiple on a company that just missed by 94.9% may rest on estimates that never materialize.
The chart shows a death cross, price below all moving averages, RSI 38 and bearish MACD, while short interest is 22% and institutions are reducing.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Price reclaims its 200-day average and short interest falls from 22% over the next 12 months.
CounterRising on-balance volume signals accumulation, and heavy short interest can fuel a squeeze, so the downtrend may reverse sharply around earnings.
EchoStar's last report on 2026-08-03 missed EPS badly (actual 0.14 vs estimate 2.62), after two beats on large losses, with the next report due 2026-11-05.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS lands at or above estimates at the 2026-11-05 report, restoring a beat streak.
CounterEarnings history is erratic, with extreme surprises both ways; a beat on a negative estimate says little about the underlying business.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 2.5 |
| Op margin | 5.5 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 82%
- ▸Strong margins: 81%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -23% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.2 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 4.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 48%
Insider
3.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 2.4 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $1,224,686 (0.004% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions reducing
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 9.7 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.8 |
| support resistance | 7.2 |
| 52w position | 2.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 4.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.8 |
| implied vol | 0.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 7.6 |
- ▸High short interest: 22%
- ▸High IV: 79%
- ▸Above max pain $60
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Risk floor cleared 1 of 3 consecutive checks — exit held until confirmed.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:RISK_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:116d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.46
Upside
+28.4%
Downside
11.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -40% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.0<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.8 and asymmetric R:R of 2.46.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.8, Sentiment at 7.7, and Catalyst at 6.9; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.1, Insider at 3.5, and Momentum at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.46 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cash Burn Weak Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow stays below -100% of revenue for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Declining Revenue Base
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $3.4B from the current $3.58B.
- P3Cheap Forward Valuation Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $95 from current $113.27.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Heavy Shorting
Trip ifPrice falls below the $82.84 stop level, more than 7% under the current $89.08.
- P5Volatile Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.