Value
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| PEG | 5.7 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸PEG: 1.33
ECHO · Why this verdict
Why EchoStar (ECHO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score3.4/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The engine's gate check flagged a bankruptcy-related news event even as an earnings catalyst approaches in 26 days with a 3/4 beat streak, representing a serious tail-risk flag layered on top of a fundamental catalyst setup. Engine gate (failed) | The bankruptcy-related news flag should clear in subsequent runs without escalating into an actual bankruptcy filing or restructuring announcement. | →Stable |
| CounterA bankruptcy-related news flag can be triggered by third-party or industry-adjacent headlines rather than the company itself, so it may not reflect a direct threat to this specific issuer. | ||
LLM-derived news sentiment is negative (-0.45 across 6 articles) even as the stock approaches an earnings date with a 3-beat-in-4 track record. Sentiment breakdown | News sentiment should turn net positive ahead of the upcoming earnings report if the catalyst thesis holds. | →Stable |
| CounterSentiment is drawn from only 6 articles, a small sample that can be swayed by one or two negative pieces rather than reflecting broad market sentiment. | ||
Short interest is very high at 36% and described as justified, reflecting strong bearish conviction in the market against this name. Risk breakdown | Short interest should decline from 36% if the fundamental and catalyst case plays out favorably. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely high short interest creates real short-squeeze potential on any positive earnings surprise, which could drive an outsized price move against the bearish positioning. | ||
Momentum shows capitulation risk with RSI at 24, though the 200-day moving average is still rising (+11.0%/30d), suggesting this could be a pullback within a longer uptrend rather than confirmed weakness. Momentum breakdown | RSI should recover above 40 and price should hold above key support as the pullback resolves. | →Stable |
| CounterAn RSI of 24 combined with a failed momentum gate (3.0 vs. 4.5) suggests the near-term technical picture remains genuinely weak regardless of the longer-term MA trend. | ||
The engine's gate check flagged a bankruptcy-related news event even as an earnings catalyst approaches in 26 days with a 3/4 beat streak, representing a serious tail-risk flag layered on top of a fundamental catalyst setup.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The bankruptcy-related news flag should clear in subsequent runs without escalating into an actual bankruptcy filing or restructuring announcement.
CounterA bankruptcy-related news flag can be triggered by third-party or industry-adjacent headlines rather than the company itself, so it may not reflect a direct threat to this specific issuer.
LLM-derived news sentiment is negative (-0.45 across 6 articles) even as the stock approaches an earnings date with a 3-beat-in-4 track record.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- News sentiment should turn net positive ahead of the upcoming earnings report if the catalyst thesis holds.
CounterSentiment is drawn from only 6 articles, a small sample that can be swayed by one or two negative pieces rather than reflecting broad market sentiment.
Short interest is very high at 36% and described as justified, reflecting strong bearish conviction in the market against this name.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline from 36% if the fundamental and catalyst case plays out favorably.
CounterExtremely high short interest creates real short-squeeze potential on any positive earnings surprise, which could drive an outsized price move against the bearish positioning.
Momentum shows capitulation risk with RSI at 24, though the 200-day moving average is still rising (+11.0%/30d), suggesting this could be a pullback within a longer uptrend rather than confirmed weakness.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should recover above 40 and price should hold above key support as the pullback resolves.
CounterAn RSI of 24 combined with a failed momentum gate (3.0 vs. 4.5) suggests the near-term technical picture remains genuinely weak regardless of the longer-term MA trend.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ECHO carries a serious bankruptcy-related news flag and negative sentiment heading into an earnings catalyst with a 3/4 beat streak, against a backdrop of extreme short interest and capitulation-level oversold momentum.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 1.4 |
| Op margin | 3.6 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -3% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
1.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.2 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -5%
Momentum
1.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+10.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.2 |
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 46%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
0.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 0.2 |
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.3 |
| support resistance | 8.7 |
| 52w position | 3.5 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 3.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.8 |
| implied vol | 2.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
| news risk | 2.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 36%
- ▸High IV: 66%
- ▸Above max pain $70
- ▸Multi-category risk: financial, regulatory
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.2<4.5
- NEWS:BANKRUPTCY
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.89
Upside
+24.3%
Downside
12.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 25d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Catalyst at 6.9 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:1.2<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 6.9, Sentiment at 6.8, and Technical at 6.1; the weakest are Peer rank at 0.6, Momentum at 1.2, and Growth at 1.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.89 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Bankruptcy News Flag
Trip ifShort interest falls below 20% of float from the current 36% within the next 2 quarters.
- P2Negative Sentiment Ahead Of Catalyst
Trip ifLLM news sentiment score stays below -0.3 for 2 consecutive months.
- P3Extreme Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest rises above 45% of float from the current 36%.
- P4Capitulation Oversold Momentum
Trip ifRSI stays below 20 for 2 additional consecutive weeks.