Value
8.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 8.3 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.79
- ▸Attractively valued
DOX · Why this verdict
Why Amdocs (DOX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Amdocs combines a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with a forward earnings multiple of 6.9x — making it attractively valued — yet the stock has broken down technically with a confirmed death cross, price below all moving averages, and a put/call ratio of 2.00, suggesting the value case remains unrecognized until price momentum reverses.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the most recent quarters — consistently under-promising and over-delivering, with an average positive surprise of approximately 1.2% — demonstrating reliable execution discipline even as headline growth has slowed. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak extends to six consecutive quarters, confirming that execution discipline is structural rather than cyclical. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe average beat magnitude of approximately 1.2% is narrow — near the threshold of rounding — suggesting that estimates are being carefully managed; if estimates trend down sufficiently, even a small miss would break the streak and could pressure the stock significantly. | ||
At a forward earnings multiple of 6.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.75, the stock screens attractively valued versus the peer group even as the price has declined sharply — offering a potentially wide margin of safety for a patient buyer if the business continues to execute. Valuation breakdown | The stock re-rates toward a forward multiple above 10x as investor confidence in the beat streak and balance sheet quality is restored over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWeak growth — flagged explicitly in the bear case — means a low multiple may be structurally deserved rather than a temporary discount; if earnings estimates continue trending down, the 6.9x forward multiple may simply normalize at a lower earnings base rather than expand. | ||
A confirmed death cross, price below all major moving averages with the long-term trend slope declining at approximately 4.7% per month, and an RSI of 29 collectively signal a confirmed downtrend with capitulation-level technical readings that block new position entry. Momentum breakdown | The stock reclaims its 200-day moving average and the death cross resolves within 6 months, confirming the technical bottom is in. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn RSI of 29 approaching capitulation territory can signal a near-term bounce opportunity rather than continued deterioration; if the earnings beat streak attracts buyers at these depressed levels, the death cross could resolve faster than expected and the technical setup would flip constructive. | ||
A put/call ratio of 2.00 paired with implied volatility of 68% indicates elevated hedging demand and institutional caution, signaling that the market is pricing meaningful downside risk beyond what the current share price reflects. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio falls below 1.0 within three months as directional bearishness unwinds following a stabilization in price trend. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios at capitulation-level RSI readings have historically preceded mean-reversions; if hedges are unwound following any positive catalyst, implied volatility compression could itself provide a tailwind for the stock. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the most recent quarters — consistently under-promising and over-delivering, with an average positive surprise of approximately 1.2% — demonstrating reliable execution discipline even as headline growth has slowed.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to six consecutive quarters, confirming that execution discipline is structural rather than cyclical.
CounterThe average beat magnitude of approximately 1.2% is narrow — near the threshold of rounding — suggesting that estimates are being carefully managed; if estimates trend down sufficiently, even a small miss would break the streak and could pressure the stock significantly.
At a forward earnings multiple of 6.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.75, the stock screens attractively valued versus the peer group even as the price has declined sharply — offering a potentially wide margin of safety for a patient buyer if the business continues to execute.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock re-rates toward a forward multiple above 10x as investor confidence in the beat streak and balance sheet quality is restored over the next 12 months.
CounterWeak growth — flagged explicitly in the bear case — means a low multiple may be structurally deserved rather than a temporary discount; if earnings estimates continue trending down, the 6.9x forward multiple may simply normalize at a lower earnings base rather than expand.
A confirmed death cross, price below all major moving averages with the long-term trend slope declining at approximately 4.7% per month, and an RSI of 29 collectively signal a confirmed downtrend with capitulation-level technical readings that block new position entry.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock reclaims its 200-day moving average and the death cross resolves within 6 months, confirming the technical bottom is in.
CounterAn RSI of 29 approaching capitulation territory can signal a near-term bounce opportunity rather than continued deterioration; if the earnings beat streak attracts buyers at these depressed levels, the death cross could resolve faster than expected and the technical setup would flip constructive.
A put/call ratio of 2.00 paired with implied volatility of 68% indicates elevated hedging demand and institutional caution, signaling that the market is pricing meaningful downside risk beyond what the current share price reflects.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio falls below 1.0 within three months as directional bearishness unwinds following a stabilization in price trend.
CounterElevated put/call ratios at capitulation-level RSI readings have historically preceded mean-reversions; if hedges are unwound following any positive catalyst, implied volatility compression could itself provide a tailwind for the stock.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 5.4 |
| Gross margin | 3.7 |
| Op margin | 7.2 |
| Net margin | 4.9 |
| Current ratio | 3.7 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 154% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
1.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 42%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $29,005 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.7 |
| quality rank | 5.1 |
| growth rank | 1.2 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 2.8 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.8 |
| days to cover | 2.4 |
| volatility | 3.4 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.3 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 3.9% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:90d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.56
Upside
+20.5%
Downside
13.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 8.3; weakest: Growth at 1.6. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.3, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Growth at 1.6, Technical at 3.6, and Momentum at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.56 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Value Amid Selloff
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 12x for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Technical Downtrend Death Cross
Trip ifStock closes above its 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4Elevated Options Skew Warning
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 for 3 consecutive weeks.