Value
4.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.5 |
| P/S | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.1 |
| PEG | 2.9 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.6x
- ▸PEG: 4.28
DASH · Why this verdict
Why DoorDash (DASH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At 33.9% below the analyst consensus price target of $225.10, with a risk/reward ratio of 4.84-to-1, the current price embeds a substantial margin of safety versus the fundamental view — one reinforced by three quarters of positive earnings surprises. Price targets | Price closes within 10% of the $225.10 target within 12 months as consistent fundamental delivery is recognized by the market. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag price action and are regularly cut if a downtrend persists; the current 33.9% gap to target may narrow not by the stock rising but by targets being revised lower to meet a falling price. | ||
Revenue grew 33% year-over-year and free cash flow converts at 248% of net income — meaning cash generation substantially exceeds reported earnings — a combination that signals the accounting earnings significantly understate the true economic returns being produced. Quality | Revenue growth stays above 20% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters and FCF conversion remains above 150% of net income. | →Stable |
| CounterFCF well above net income can reflect one-time working capital releases or deferred cash items rather than structural cash generation; a single quarter can unwind the premium if working capital normalizes. | ||
Three of the last four quarters produced positive earnings surprises averaging roughly 16%, with the most recent May 2026 report delivering a 15% beat — a pattern of consistently out-delivering expectations that has held across multiple reporting periods. Earnings | EPS beat rate holds above 75% over the next 4 quarters with average positive surprise above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterOne miss in February 2026 interrupts the streak; as revenue compounding continues at 33%, the comparison base for earnings rises quickly and maintaining the beat cadence becomes progressively harder. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a 30-day slope of minus 6.2% — a confirmed downtrend — and the technical score of 0.7 out of 10 signals the price structure is among the weakest in the screening universe, despite improving MACD and rising OBV. Momentum | If this pillar is wrong, price recovers above the 200-day moving average and the 30-day moving average slope turns positive, staying positive for at least 20 consecutive trading sessions. | →Stable |
| CounterMACD is improving and OBV is rising — signs of institutional accumulation — which can precede a price recovery by weeks; the downtrend reflects the rear-view mirror while the flow data may be forward-looking. | ||
A forward P/E of 21.5 times against a PEG of 3.75 indicates the market is already pricing in substantial growth expectations — leaving limited room for a multiple re-rating if growth disappoints even modestly. Value | If this pillar is wrong, sustained earnings upside drives the PEG below 2.0 over the next four quarters as earnings growth outpaces the currently implied expectation. | →Stable |
| CounterA 33% revenue growth rate at 21.5 times forward earnings is not unusual for a platform-model business in a market-share expansion phase, and high-growth franchises can sustain rich multiples through compounding. | ||
At 33.9% below the analyst consensus price target of $225.10, with a risk/reward ratio of 4.84-to-1, the current price embeds a substantial margin of safety versus the fundamental view — one reinforced by three quarters of positive earnings surprises.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price closes within 10% of the $225.10 target within 12 months as consistent fundamental delivery is recognized by the market.
CounterAnalyst targets lag price action and are regularly cut if a downtrend persists; the current 33.9% gap to target may narrow not by the stock rising but by targets being revised lower to meet a falling price.
Revenue grew 33% year-over-year and free cash flow converts at 248% of net income — meaning cash generation substantially exceeds reported earnings — a combination that signals the accounting earnings significantly understate the true economic returns being produced.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 20% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters and FCF conversion remains above 150% of net income.
CounterFCF well above net income can reflect one-time working capital releases or deferred cash items rather than structural cash generation; a single quarter can unwind the premium if working capital normalizes.
Three of the last four quarters produced positive earnings surprises averaging roughly 16%, with the most recent May 2026 report delivering a 15% beat — a pattern of consistently out-delivering expectations that has held across multiple reporting periods.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beat rate holds above 75% over the next 4 quarters with average positive surprise above 10%.
CounterOne miss in February 2026 interrupts the streak; as revenue compounding continues at 33%, the comparison base for earnings rises quickly and maintaining the beat cadence becomes progressively harder.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a 30-day slope of minus 6.2% — a confirmed downtrend — and the technical score of 0.7 out of 10 signals the price structure is among the weakest in the screening universe, despite improving MACD and rising OBV.
→StableMomentum
- Expectation
- If this pillar is wrong, price recovers above the 200-day moving average and the 30-day moving average slope turns positive, staying positive for at least 20 consecutive trading sessions.
CounterMACD is improving and OBV is rising — signs of institutional accumulation — which can precede a price recovery by weeks; the downtrend reflects the rear-view mirror while the flow data may be forward-looking.
A forward P/E of 21.5 times against a PEG of 3.75 indicates the market is already pricing in substantial growth expectations — leaving limited room for a multiple re-rating if growth disappoints even modestly.
→StableValue
- Expectation
- If this pillar is wrong, sustained earnings upside drives the PEG below 2.0 over the next four quarters as earnings growth outpaces the currently implied expectation.
CounterA 33% revenue growth rate at 21.5 times forward earnings is not unusual for a platform-model business in a market-share expansion phase, and high-growth franchises can sustain rich multiples through compounding.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Revenue growing at 33% year-over-year with free cash flow converting at 248% of net income is a rare quality combination, and 33.9% upside to consensus with a 4.84-to-1 risk/reward offers a material entry discount — but the stock is in a confirmed price downtrend below its long-term moving average, and the technical picture must improve before the fundamental case can be acted on with conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 2.2 |
| Gross margin | 6.4 |
| Op margin | 2.1 |
| Net margin | 3.1 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 248% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.8 |
- ▸Strong growth: 33% YoY
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 81)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 30%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $23,866,194 (0.029% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.3 |
| quality rank | 3.6 |
| growth rank | 7.6 |
Technical
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 3.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 0.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.2 |
| beta | 4.1 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
- ▸High IV: 67%
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.5>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:36d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
1.34
Upside
+20.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.78>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 6.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.34 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 6.4, Catalyst at 6.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.7; the weakest are Technical at 2.2, Peer rank at 2.9, and Insider at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Growth And Cash Conversion
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Confirmed Price Downtrend
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average and 30-day MA slope stays positive for 20 consecutive trading sessions.
- P4Large Upside To Consensus Target
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target is revised down below $185, reducing the upside to less than 10% from the current price.
- P5Expensive On Growth Adjusted Basis
Trip ifPEG ratio falls below 2.0 as forward EPS estimates are revised higher by more than 20%.