Value
9.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.20
- ▸Attractively valued
DAC · Why this verdict
Why Danaos (DAC) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward P/E of 5.4x and a PEG of 0.21 place the stock among the cheapest in its industry on earnings-adjusted terms, with the data noting a 69% margin of safety — a discount this wide typically requires either a structural earnings impairment or a significant market dislocation to be justified. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E re-rates toward 8x over 12 months as earnings delivery continues, closing at least half the gap to a normal shipping sector multiple. | →Stable |
| CounterShipping companies often trade at permanently low multiples due to capital intensity and cycle sensitivity; the low PEG may reflect the market's expectation that current earnings are near a cyclical peak rather than a genuine discount to intrinsic value. | ||
Operating margins of approximately 50% and a perfect Piotroski score of 9 out of 9 position the company as best-in-class among shipping peers, reflecting a lean, high-quality operating structure that is difficult to replicate quickly. Quality breakdown | Operating margins remain above 45% for the next four quarters, sustaining the quality premium over peers. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow converts at only 26% of net income — below the accounting earnings level — suggesting significant capital consumption that tempers the quality picture; a sustained divergence between earnings and cash could signal upcoming capital requirements that pressure the dividend. | ||
Sell-side estimates have risen 7.7% in the last 30 days, indicating that analysts are revising their forward earnings expectations upward — a near-term signal that the fundamental backdrop is improving ahead of the next report. Catalyst breakdown | The 30-day estimate revision trend remains positive above 3% for the next two months, with the next reported quarter delivering a positive earnings surprise. | →Stable |
| CounterLight analyst coverage (two covering analysts) means each individual revision creates a disproportionately large percentage move in the consensus figure, potentially overstating the breadth of conviction behind the revision trend. | ||
After two consecutive misses in mid-to-late 2025, the company returned to beating expectations in the two most recent quarters, suggesting that the operational factors behind the prior misses have been resolved. Earnings | The company delivers a positive EPS surprise for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming that the return to consistent delivery is durable. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two most recent beats were modest (1.8% and 5.5%), suggesting the guidance bar was set conservatively after the prior misses; any return to operational headwinds could re-break the still-fragile beat streak. | ||
A forward P/E of 5.4x and a PEG of 0.21 place the stock among the cheapest in its industry on earnings-adjusted terms, with the data noting a 69% margin of safety — a discount this wide typically requires either a structural earnings impairment or a significant market dislocation to be justified.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E re-rates toward 8x over 12 months as earnings delivery continues, closing at least half the gap to a normal shipping sector multiple.
CounterShipping companies often trade at permanently low multiples due to capital intensity and cycle sensitivity; the low PEG may reflect the market's expectation that current earnings are near a cyclical peak rather than a genuine discount to intrinsic value.
Operating margins of approximately 50% and a perfect Piotroski score of 9 out of 9 position the company as best-in-class among shipping peers, reflecting a lean, high-quality operating structure that is difficult to replicate quickly.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins remain above 45% for the next four quarters, sustaining the quality premium over peers.
CounterFree cash flow converts at only 26% of net income — below the accounting earnings level — suggesting significant capital consumption that tempers the quality picture; a sustained divergence between earnings and cash could signal upcoming capital requirements that pressure the dividend.
Sell-side estimates have risen 7.7% in the last 30 days, indicating that analysts are revising their forward earnings expectations upward — a near-term signal that the fundamental backdrop is improving ahead of the next report.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The 30-day estimate revision trend remains positive above 3% for the next two months, with the next reported quarter delivering a positive earnings surprise.
CounterLight analyst coverage (two covering analysts) means each individual revision creates a disproportionately large percentage move in the consensus figure, potentially overstating the breadth of conviction behind the revision trend.
After two consecutive misses in mid-to-late 2025, the company returned to beating expectations in the two most recent quarters, suggesting that the operational factors behind the prior misses have been resolved.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company delivers a positive EPS surprise for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming that the return to consistent delivery is durable.
CounterThe two most recent beats were modest (1.8% and 5.5%), suggesting the guidance bar was set conservatively after the prior misses; any return to operational headwinds could re-break the still-fragile beat streak.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Danaos offers one of the deepest value profiles in marine shipping — a forward P/E of 5.4x, a PEG of 0.21, best-in-class margins of 50%, and a 69% margin of safety — with a favorable risk/reward of 1.58-to-1; the main friction is that the stock is already just below its near-term target with about 1.6% headroom remaining, suggesting patience for a pullback toward the entry level.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 4.4 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 2.1 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 50%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 26% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 13 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 7.1 |
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.4 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 4.3 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 24)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
| erm sentiment | 8.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
- ▸Estimates rising as sentiment proxy (+7.7%)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 3.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.7 |
| support resistance | 8.2 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 4.0 |
| volatility | 5.6 |
| put call | 0.6 |
| implied vol | 6.1 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.91
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 9.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.2 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Estimates up 7.7% (30d)
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 294.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 3.5 < 4.5 minimum. Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE->V9:WEAK_MOMENTUM|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (8)
- ASYMMETRY:1.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Industrials:0/10
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.66
Upside
+9.1%
Downside
5.5%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.5<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.8 and asymmetric R:R of 1.66.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.8, Technical at 8.4, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 3.5, Growth at 4.8, and Catalyst at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.66 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Extreme Valuation Discount
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 10x for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the valuation discount has closed.
- P2Best In Class Operating Margins
Trip ifOperating margins fall below 40% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Estimate Revision Momentum
Trip if30-day estimate revision trend turns negative below -5% for 2 consecutive months.
- P4Recent Earnings Beat Recovery
Trip ifEPS surprise turns negative (below 0%) for 2 consecutive quarters.