Value
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.0 |
| P/S | 6.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.3 |
| PEG | 6.1 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 33.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.22
CW · Why this verdict
Why Curtiss-Wright (CW) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Curtiss-Wright has delivered four consecutive earnings beats on strong technical momentum and best-in-class quality metrics, but at a forward P/E of 44.7 times and with the stock trading above its near-term price target, the risk/reward is unfavorable for new entry from current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and best-in-class margins relative to aerospace and defense peers reflect a business that operates with a high level of financial quality — a characteristic that historically supports premium valuations over time. Peer-rank breakdown | The company continues to rank in the top quartile of its peer group on quality metrics and operating margins hold steady or improve over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSignificant customer concentration — with roughly 58% of revenue tied to U.S. and allied government end-use — means any defense-budget headwind could compress margins faster than peers with a more diversified revenue mix. | ||
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, with average upside of approximately 3.7% — consistent, if modest, guidance discipline that has built a reliable track record. Earnings | The beat streak extends to six or more consecutive quarters and average EPS surprise remains above 2% over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe average quarterly beat of 3.7% is narrow and leaves little cushion if contract timing or government budget delays introduce any friction in the defense supply chain. | ||
A golden cross, rising on-balance volume, and positioning above all major moving averages reflect genuine accumulation and supply-demand strength — one of the more constructive technical setups in the aerospace and defense space. Momentum breakdown | The stock holds above key moving-average support and on-balance volume continues rising over the next 6 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith the stock already above the near-term price target, momentum alone is an insufficient reason to add exposure — gains can reverse quickly when near-term catalysts are exhausted. | ||
At $762.59, the stock has moved above its near-term target of $757.52, and a forward P/E of 44.7 times prices in substantial future earnings growth — the risk/reward from current levels does not justify new exposure. Price targets | If the valuation corrects to a more reasonable multiple and the stock retreats below the near-term target, a more attractive entry point may emerge over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterPremium multiples in high-quality defense businesses can persist for years when the underlying backlog and earnings visibility are strong; valuation alone may not trigger a correction. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and best-in-class margins relative to aerospace and defense peers reflect a business that operates with a high level of financial quality — a characteristic that historically supports premium valuations over time.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- The company continues to rank in the top quartile of its peer group on quality metrics and operating margins hold steady or improve over the next 12 months.
CounterSignificant customer concentration — with roughly 58% of revenue tied to U.S. and allied government end-use — means any defense-budget headwind could compress margins faster than peers with a more diversified revenue mix.
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, with average upside of approximately 3.7% — consistent, if modest, guidance discipline that has built a reliable track record.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to six or more consecutive quarters and average EPS surprise remains above 2% over the next 12 months.
CounterThe average quarterly beat of 3.7% is narrow and leaves little cushion if contract timing or government budget delays introduce any friction in the defense supply chain.
A golden cross, rising on-balance volume, and positioning above all major moving averages reflect genuine accumulation and supply-demand strength — one of the more constructive technical setups in the aerospace and defense space.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock holds above key moving-average support and on-balance volume continues rising over the next 6 months.
CounterWith the stock already above the near-term price target, momentum alone is an insufficient reason to add exposure — gains can reverse quickly when near-term catalysts are exhausted.
At $762.59, the stock has moved above its near-term target of $757.52, and a forward P/E of 44.7 times prices in substantial future earnings growth — the risk/reward from current levels does not justify new exposure.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- If the valuation corrects to a more reasonable multiple and the stock retreats below the near-term target, a more attractive entry point may emerge over the next 12 months.
CounterPremium multiples in high-quality defense businesses can persist for years when the underlying backlog and earnings visibility are strong; valuation alone may not trigger a correction.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.6 |
| ROA | 5.7 |
| Gross margin | 3.5 |
| Op margin | 7.8 |
| Net margin | 7.4 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| FCF quality | 7.1 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 7.5 |
Momentum
1.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 12, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.1 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.42 (n=4)
- ▸Analyst upside: 43%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.9 |
| holder change | 6.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $4,694,057 (0.022% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.7 |
| quality rank | 8.3 |
| growth rank | 1.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.2 |
| support resistance | 9.9 |
| 52w position | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 3.6 |
| put call | 3.2 |
| implied vol | 5.7 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 8.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.52
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.3 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:3.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:63d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.2<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_FLAG:1.02
Reward-to-Risk
3.40
Upside
+24.1%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.2<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.40 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.7, Sentiment at 7.0, and Quality at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 1.2, Value at 4.6, and Peer rank at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.40 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Reliable Earnings Beats
Trip ifAverage EPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Technical Momentum Breakout
Trip ifPrice falls below $711 (stop-loss support level) for 2 consecutive weeks.
- P3Best In Class Margins Quality
Trip ifAverage EPS surprise compresses below 2% for 2 consecutive quarters from the current 3.7% average.
- P4Price Surpassed Target Unfavorable Setup
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 35x from the current 44.7x, restoring a more attractive valuation entry point.