CTO Realty Growth has beaten earnings every quarter this year and carries a strong Piotroski quality score, but trading near its 52-week high with its analyst target already reached, elevated leverage, and a flagged dividend yield trap keep the engine cautious on adding to the position.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak Catalyst→Stable
- Piotroski Quality Signal→Stable
- Near 52 Week High Asymmetry↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Real Estate · REIT - Diversified
Wait for pullback to $20.90. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $22.00. Engine's entry $20.90 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Property Type: shopping centers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
CTO Realty Growth is a self-managed equity REIT that owns and repositions shopping centers and mixed-use retail properties, holding 21 properties across seven states totaling 5.5 million square feet as of December 31, 2025. The company generated $149.5 million in total 2025... Read more
Wait for pullback to $20.90. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $22.00. Engine's entry $20.90 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Property Type: shopping centers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 60 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 2d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About CTO Realty Growth, Inc.
About CTO Realty Growth, Inc.
CTO Realty Growth owned 21 commercial real estate properties spanning 5.5 million square feet of gross leasable space across seven states as of December 31, 2025, generating $149.5 million in total revenue for the year, up from $124.5 million in 2024. Income Properties supplied $132.2 million of that revenue, with the remainder split between $12.5 million of interest income from commercial loans and investments and $4.8 million of management fees, including from managing affiliate Alpine Income Property Trust (PINE), in which CTO holds a $41.3 million stake equal to 15.4% of PINE's outstanding common equity.
CTO's core strategy is investing in shopping centers in faster-growing, business-friendly markets, and its 17 shopping centers generate $102.4 million of annualized base rent against a 5.0-year weighted average remaining lease term, while four other income properties add $3.8 million against a 3.9-year term. The company also earns interest income from a $104.8 million portfolio of four commercial loan investments and two preferred-equity investments secured by real estate, and collects a base management fee equal to 1.5% of PINE's total equity (reduced to 0.75% on equity tied to PINE's Series A Preferred Stock issuance) plus incentive fees for managing PINE and third-party portfolios under separate agreements. In 2025 CTO acquired two shopping centers for $144.9 million and sold four income properties, including a $78.0 million shopping center in Plano, Texas, for combined proceeds of $85.1 million and $21.0 million of gains.
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CTO's business plan is primarily focused on investing in shopping centers, and an Exclusivity and Right of First Offer Agreement with PINE bars CTO from investing in single-tenant net-lease properties at all, structurally tying future acquisitions to the multi-tenant retail format even as shopping-center occupancy (92% economic, 96% leased in 2025) outperforms the company's four other income properties, which ran at just 61% economic occupancy despite being 100% leased. Roughly 30% of gross annual rent is scheduled to expire in 2027 and 2028 combined, concentrating lease-renewal risk in a two-year window even as the shopping-center portfolio's overall occupancy trend has been improving since 2023.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Diversified
From CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — CTO Realty Growth, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS MediaAlpha CTO Amy Yeh sells $186,930 in stock - Investing.com — Investing.com neutral
- NEWS Samsara EVP, CTO John Bicket sells $9.5m in stock in July - Investing.com — Investing.com neutral
- NEWS What Does Ouster's CTO Stock Sale Really Mean for Investors - Kavout | AI — Kavout | AI neutral
- NEWS CTO Realty Growth Inc. (CTO) Shows Modest Gains Amid Consolidation - OBV Divergence - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et neutral
- NEWS Here's What Could Help CTO Realty (CTO) Maintain Its Recent Price Strength - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-07-26T12:02:10Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHPropertyshopping centers10-K Item 1: 'Our business plan is primarily focused on investing in shopping centers.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $20.90. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $22.00. Engine's entry $20.90 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Property Type: shopping centers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 60 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $22.21 (+1.0%), stop $20.06 (−9.7%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $22.21 (-7.1% upside). Target $22.21 (+1.0%), stop $20.06 (−9.7%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Stop-loss: $20.06.
Concentration risk — Property Type: shopping centers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.9% away).
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. trades at a P/E of 110.0 (forward 200.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
10 analysts cover CTO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $24.
What does CTO Realty Growth, Inc. do?CTO Realty Growth is a self-managed equity REIT that owns and repositions shopping centers and mixed-use retail...
CTO Realty Growth is a self-managed equity REIT that owns and repositions shopping centers and mixed-use retail properties, holding 21 properties across seven states totaling 5.5 million square feet as of December 31, 2025. The company generated $149.5 million in total 2025 revenue — primarily from Income Properties — and also earns fee income managing affiliate Alpine Income Property Trust and interest income from a $104.8 million commercial loan and preferred-equity portfolio.