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CTBICommunity Trust Bancorp, Inc.Hold6.1·$72.75-1.78%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Community Trust Bancorp offers an attractively valued regional bank at a forward P/E of 11.0x with a PEG of 0.48, strong 37% net margins, and three earnings beats in the last four quarters, but the stock is just 1% below its take-profit resistance level with a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.22, and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.67 signals that options participants are positioned defensively, collectively favoring patience over new accumulation.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation With Earnings SupportStable
  • Consistent Earnings Beat RecordStable
  • Elevated Options Defensive PositioningStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (CTBI) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $72.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Community Trust Bancorp is a Kentucky bank holding company operating Community Trust Bank and a trust company across eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee. The company held $6.7 billion in total... Read more

$72.75+0.5% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#83 of 225 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.91%(5y avg 3.87%)Payout36.08%sustainable
Stop $69.51Target $73.08(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$73.67+1.3%3 analysts
$73.08our TP
$72.75price
$73.67mean
$72
$76

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $72.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 15, 202612d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.4% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.7
P/E (Fwd)11.6
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn37.0%
ROE12.5%
Rev Growth14.8%
Beta0.56
Dividend2.91%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.09bullish
IV53%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographiceastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our loan portfolio is concentrated primarily in eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-04Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Executive Vice President and Community Trust Bank President Richard W. Newsom announced planned retirement effective February 5, 2027; long-lead-time, clean handoff with Newsom continuing to serve until that date.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentEARNINGS PROXIMITY 12d<=14d (soft)Momentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $65.64Resistance $74.57

Price Targets

$70
$73
A.Upside+0.5%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-15 (12d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CTBI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $72.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $73.08 (+0.5%), stop $69.51 (−4.7%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CTBI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $73.08 (+0.5% upside). Target $73.08 (+0.5%), stop $69.51 (−4.7%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Stop-loss: $69.51.

What are the risks of investing in CTBI?

Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.4% away).

Is CTBI overvalued or undervalued?

Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.7 (forward 11.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CTBI?

8 analysts cover CTBI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $74.

What does Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. do?Community Trust Bancorp is a Kentucky bank holding company operating Community Trust Bank and a trust company across...

Community Trust Bancorp is a Kentucky bank holding company operating Community Trust Bank and a trust company across eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee. The company held $6.7 billion in total consolidated assets, $5.7 billion in deposits and repurchase agreements, and $4.1 billion in trust assets under management as of December 31, 2025.

Related stocks: NBN (Northeast Bank) · BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group, Inc.) · NPB (Northpointe Bancshares, Inc.) · CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · COFS (ChoiceOne Financial Services, I)
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