Skip to main content
CTBICommunity Trust Bancorp, Inc.Hold6.0·$76.15+1.91%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Community Trust Bancorp offers an attractively valued regional bank at a forward P/E of 11.0x with a PEG of 0.48, strong 37% net margins, and three earnings beats in the last four quarters, but the stock is just 1% below its take-profit resistance level with a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.22, and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.67 signals that options participants are positioned defensively, collectively favoring patience over new accumulation.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation With Earnings SupportStable
  • Consistent Earnings Beat RecordStable
  • Elevated Options Defensive PositioningImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (CTBI) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $76.15, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Community Trust Bancorp is a Kentucky bank holding company operating Community Trust Bank and a trust company across eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee. The company held $6.7 billion in total... Read more

$76.15-9.2% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#119 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.84%(5y avg 3.87%)Payout35.51%sustainable
Stop $72.39Target $76.47(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$81.33+6.8%3 analysts
$76.47our TP
$76.15price
$81.33mean
$82

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $76.15, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 87d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 21, 202687d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.4% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.8
P/E (Fwd)11.8
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn37.6%
ROE12.7%
Rev Growth11.2%
Beta0.56
Dividend2.84%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV42%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographiceastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our loan portfolio is concentrated primarily in eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-04Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Executive Vice President and Community Trust Bank President Richard W. Newsom announced planned retirement effective February 5, 2027; long-lead-time, clean handoff with Newsom continuing to serve until that date.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 87d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $70.60Resistance $78.03

Price Targets

$72
$76
A.Upside-9.2%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-21 (87d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CTBI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $76.15, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $76.47 (+0.4%), stop $72.39 (−5.2%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CTBI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $76.47 (-9.2% upside). Target $76.47 (+0.4%), stop $72.39 (−5.2%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Stop-loss: $72.39.

What are the risks of investing in CTBI?

Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.4% away).

Is CTBI overvalued or undervalued?

Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.8 (forward 11.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CTBI?

9 analysts cover CTBI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $81.

What does Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. do?Community Trust Bancorp is a Kentucky bank holding company operating Community Trust Bank and a trust company across...

Community Trust Bancorp is a Kentucky bank holding company operating Community Trust Bank and a trust company across eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee. The company held $6.7 billion in total consolidated assets, $5.7 billion in deposits and repurchase agreements, and $4.1 billion in trust assets under management as of December 31, 2025.

Related stocks: CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group, Inc.) · BHB (Bar Harbor Bankshares, Inc.) · NBBK (NB Bancorp, Inc.) · NBN (Northeast Bank)
Home Stocks CTBI

Latest news

Latest News

Investing.com UK11d ago
MarketBeat11d agoEarnings
MarketBeat11d agoEarnings
Yahoo Finance11d ago
KING5.com11d agoEarnings
KTVB11d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com11d agoEarnings
TradingView11d agoEarnings
Investing.com Australia102d ago
GuruFocus102d ago
National Today102d ago
Yahoo Finance102d agoEarnings
Yahoo Finance102d ago
KING5.com102d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com102d agoEarnings
Yahoo Finance18d ago
Yahoo Finance18d agoEarnings
Yahoo Finance5d ago
MSN96d ago
MarketBeat96d ago
Loading more...