Skip to main content
CTBICommunity Trust Bancorp, Inc.Hold5.6·$77.48+0.55%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Community Trust Bancorp offers an attractively valued regional bank at a forward P/E of 11.0x with a PEG of 0.48, strong 37% net margins, and three earnings beats in the last four quarters, but the stock is just 1% below its take-profit resistance level with a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.22, and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.67 signals that options participants are positioned defensively, collectively favoring patience over new accumulation.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation With Earnings SupportDeteriorating
  • Consistent Earnings Beat RecordStable
  • Elevated Options Defensive PositioningDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (CTBI) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $77.48, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Community Trust Bancorp is a Kentucky bank holding company operating Community Trust Bank and a trust company across eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee. The company held $6.7 billion in total... Read more

$77.48-10.8% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#164 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.37%(5y avg 3.87%)Payout35.51%sustainable
Stop $74.77Target $89.11(default +15%)A.R:R -2.2:1
Analyst target$81.33+5.0%3 analysts
$89.11our TP
$77.48price
$81.33mean
$89

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $77.48, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 47d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 21, 202647d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.0% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.7
P/E (Fwd)11.9
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn37.6%
ROE12.7%
Rev Growth11.2%
Beta0.55
Dividend3.37%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.75bearish
IV50%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographiceastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our loan portfolio is concentrated primarily in eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-04Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Executive Vice President and Community Trust Bank President Richard W. Newsom announced planned retirement effective February 5, 2027; long-lead-time, clean handoff with Newsom continuing to serve until that date.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.5
Obv
1.1
Volume
1.6
Rsi
7.5
Ma Position
9.0
Uptrend pullback (RSI 40) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R -2.2=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 47d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $74.56Resistance $79.42

Price Targets

$75
$89
A.Upside-10.8%
A.R:R-2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.8% upside)
! News modifier suppressed: positive news (+2) cannot lift HOLD to buy-class with analyst upside -10.8% (lift floor +1.5%)
! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-21 (47d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CTBI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $77.48, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $89.11 (+15.0%), stop $74.77 (−3.6%), A.R:R -2.2:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CTBI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $89.11 (-10.8% upside). Target $89.11 (+15.0%), stop $74.77 (−3.6%), A.R:R -2.2:1. Stop-loss: $74.77.

What are the risks of investing in CTBI?

Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.0% away).

Is CTBI overvalued or undervalued?

Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.7 (forward 11.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CTBI?

9 analysts cover CTBI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $81.

What does Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. do?Community Trust Bancorp is a Kentucky bank holding company operating Community Trust Bank and a trust company across...

Community Trust Bancorp is a Kentucky bank holding company operating Community Trust Bank and a trust company across eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee. The company held $6.7 billion in total consolidated assets, $5.7 billion in deposits and repurchase agreements, and $4.1 billion in trust assets under management as of December 31, 2025.

Related stocks: CARE (Carter Bankshares, Inc.) · PKBK (Parke Bancorp, Inc.) · CCNE (CNB Financial Corporation) · ISTR (Investar Holding Corporation) · MBIN (Merchants Bancorp)
Home Stocks CTBI

Latest news

Latest News

Investing.com UK51d ago
MarketBeat51d agoEarnings
MarketBeat51d agoEarnings
Yahoo Finance51d ago
KING5.com51d agoEarnings
KTVB51d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com51d agoEarnings
TradingView51d agoEarnings
Investing.com Australia142d ago
GuruFocus142d ago
National Today142d ago
Yahoo Finance142d agoEarnings
Yahoo Finance142d ago
KING5.com142d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com142d agoEarnings
Yahoo Finance58d ago
Yahoo Finance58d agoEarnings
Yahoo Finance45d ago
MSN136d ago
MarketBeat136d ago
Loading more...