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CTBICommunity Trust Bancorp, Inc.Hold5.9·$75.56
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Community Trust Bancorp offers an attractively valued regional bank at a forward P/E of 11.0x with a PEG of 0.48, strong 37% net margins, and three earnings beats in the last four quarters, but the stock is just 1% below its take-profit resistance level with a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.22, and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.67 signals that options participants are positioned defensively, collectively favoring patience over new accumulation.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation With Earnings Support→Stable
  • Consistent Earnings Beat Record→Stable
  • Elevated Options Defensive Positioning↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (CTBI) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $75.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Community Trust Bancorp is a Kentucky bank holding company operating Community Trust Bank and a trust company across eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee. The company held $6.7 billion in total... Read more

$75.56-8.5% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#116 of 221 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield3.50%(5y avg 3.87%)Payout35.51%sustainable
Stop $72.78Target $86.89(default +15%)A.R:R -1.7:1
Analyst target$81.33+7.6%3 analysts
$86.89our TP
$75.56price
$81.33mean
$87

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $75.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 21, 202625d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.4
P/E (Fwd)11.6
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn37.6%
ROE12.7%
Rev Growth11.2%
Beta0.55
Dividend3.50%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.14bullish
IV44%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographiceastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our loan portfolio is concentrated primarily in eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-04Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Executive Vice President and Community Trust Bank President Richard W. Newsom announced planned retirement effective February 5, 2027; long-lead-time, clean handoff with Newsom continuing to serve until that date.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 25d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $73.69Resistance $78.18

Price Targets

$73
$87
A.Upside-8.5%
A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-21 (25d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CTBI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $75.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $86.89 (+15.0%), stop $72.78 (−3.8%), A.R:R -1.7:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CTBI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $86.89 (-8.5% upside). Target $86.89 (+15.0%), stop $72.78 (−3.8%), A.R:R -1.7:1. Stop-loss: $72.78.

What are the risks of investing in CTBI?

Concentration risk — Geographic: eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is CTBI overvalued or undervalued?

Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.4 (forward 11.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CTBI?

9 analysts cover CTBI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $81.

What does Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. do?Community Trust Bancorp is a Kentucky bank holding company operating Community Trust Bank and a trust company across...

Community Trust Bancorp is a Kentucky bank holding company operating Community Trust Bank and a trust company across eastern, northeastern, central, and south central Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and northeastern Tennessee. The company held $6.7 billion in total consolidated assets, $5.7 billion in deposits and repurchase agreements, and $4.1 billion in trust assets under management as of December 31, 2025.

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