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CNQCanadian Natural Resources LimiHold7.0·$47.97+0.78%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Canadian Natural Resources has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats averaging a 9.4% upside surprise, but revenue has declined roughly 1% year-over-year, price momentum sits below the threshold with falling on-balance volume, and the high dividend yield is explicitly flagged as potentially unsafe relative to current free cash flow generation.

Thesis pillars

  • Dividend Sustainability ConcernStable
  • Consistent Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Declining Revenue TrajectoryImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Canadian Natural Resources Limi (CNQ) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $47.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Canadian Natural Resources Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, production, marketing, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in Western Canada, the United Kingdom sector of the North Sea, and Offshore Africa. The company... Read more

$47.97-13.8% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#12 of 48 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield7.56%
IncomeYield3.74%(5y avg 4.19%)Payout43.15%sustainable
Stop $45.37Target $55.17(default +15%)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$48.62+1.4%4 analysts
$55.17our TP
$47.97price
$48.62mean
$44
$56

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $47.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202682d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.8
P/E (Fwd)12.3
Mkt Cap$98.1B
EV/EBITDA6.0
Profit Mgn26.3%
ROE26.7%
Rev Growth69.5%
Beta0.88
Dividend3.74%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.16bearish
IV39%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.9
Bollinger
1.6
52w Position
9.0
GatesA.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $43.13Resistance $48.47

Price Targets

$45
$55
A.Upside-13.8%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CNQ stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $47.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $55.17 (+15.0%), stop $45.37 (−5.7%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CNQ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $55.17 (-13.8% upside). Target $55.17 (+15.0%), stop $45.37 (−5.7%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Stop-loss: $45.37.

What are the risks of investing in CNQ?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is CNQ overvalued or undervalued?

Canadian Natural Resources Limi trades at a P/E of 11.8 (forward 12.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CNQ?

25 analysts cover CNQ with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $49.

What does Canadian Natural Resources Limi do?Canadian Natural Resources Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, production, marketing, and...

Canadian Natural Resources Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, production, marketing, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in Western Canada, the United Kingdom sector of the North Sea, and Offshore Africa. The company offers synthetic crude oil (SCO), mining bitumen, light and medium crude oil and NGLs, thermal bitumen, primary heavy crude oil and Pelican Lake heavy crude oil. Its midstream assets include two crude oil pipeline systems; and a 50% working interest in an 84-megawatt cogeneration plant at Primrose. The company was formerly known as AEX Minerals Corporation and changed its name to Canadian Natural Resources Limited in December 1975. Canadian Natural Resources Limited was incorporated in 1973 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

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