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CNPCenterPoint Energy, Inc (HoldinHold5.0·$44.56+0.75%
HoldHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

CNP's free cash flow is deeply negative at -462% of net income, the forward P/E of 20.7x with a PEG of 2.50 is not inexpensive for a utility with modest growth, and the stock has already exceeded its resistance target — two high-severity concentration risks (single-state regulatory exposure and a single supplier) compound the fundamental concerns even as the technical price trend remains constructive.

Thesis pillars

  • Deeply Negative Free Cash FlowStable
  • Dual High Severity Concentration RisksImproving
  • Positive Momentum Above Moving AverageImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

CenterPoint Energy, Inc (Holdin (CNP) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

Earnings in 3 days (2026-07-28). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Regulatory: PUCT (Texas); Concentration risk — Supplier: Sunrise LLC.

CenterPoint Energy is a public utility holding company whose subsidiaries provide electric transmission and distribution to 2.86 million customers on the Texas Gulf Coast (Houston Electric, regulated by the PUCT) and natural gas distribution to 4.03 million customers in Indiana,... Read more

$44.56-6.6% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#34 of 42 Utilities - Regulated Electric
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-16.97%
IncomeYield2.17%(5y avg 2.43%)Payout54.60%sustainable
Entry $40.98(200-day MA)Stop $39.26Target $44.32(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$46.25+3.8%16 analysts
$44.32our TP
$44.56price
$46.25mean
$40
$50

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Regulatory: PUCT (Texas); Concentration risk — Supplier: Sunrise LLC. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $44.56 has reached target $44.32. No upside to wait for. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 20263d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Regulatory: PUCT (Texas)
Concentration risk — Supplier: Sunrise LLC
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.3
P/E (Fwd)21.4
Mkt Cap$29.1B
EV/EBITDA14.4
Profit Mgn11.4%
ROE9.6%
Rev Growth1.9%
Beta0.45
Dividend2.17%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.27bullish
IV33%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHregulatoryPUCT (Texas)
    10-K Item 1: 'Houston Electric is a transmission and distribution electric utility that operates wholly within the state of Texas.'
  • HIGHSupplierSunrise LLC
    10-K Item 1: 'Sunrise LLC accounted for 100% of Indiana Electric's coal purchases.'
  • MEDIUMSupplierTenaska Marketing Ventures
    10-K Item 1: 'Tenaska Marketing Ventures, LLC | 32 | % | | 30 | %'
  • MEDIUMCustomerNRG and Vistra Energy Corp. affiliates
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of Houston Electric's billed receivables from REPs are due from affiliates of NRG and Vistra Energy Corp.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.8
Value Rank
2.2
Quality Rank
3.3

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.0
Earnings Growth
3.3
GatesA.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $42.49Resistance $45.22

Price Targets

$39
$41
$44
A.Upside-6.6%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.6% upside)
! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CNP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Regulatory: PUCT (Texas); Concentration risk — Supplier: Sunrise LLC. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $44.56 has reached target $44.32. No upside to wait for. Target $44.32 (-0.5%), stop $39.26 (−13.5%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the CNP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $44.32 (-6.6% upside). Target $44.32 (-0.5%), stop $39.26 (−13.5%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Stop-loss: $39.26.

What are the risks of investing in CNP?

Concentration risk — Regulatory: PUCT (Texas); Concentration risk — Supplier: Sunrise LLC; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is CNP overvalued or undervalued?

CenterPoint Energy, Inc (Holdin trades at a P/E of 27.3 (forward 21.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CNP?

24 analysts cover CNP with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $46.

What does CenterPoint Energy, Inc (Holdin do?CenterPoint Energy is a public utility holding company whose subsidiaries provide electric transmission and...

CenterPoint Energy is a public utility holding company whose subsidiaries provide electric transmission and distribution to 2.86 million customers on the Texas Gulf Coast (Houston Electric, regulated by the PUCT) and natural gas distribution to 4.03 million customers in Indiana, Minnesota, Ohio, and Texas. Ohio gas operations are under agreement for sale at $2.62 billion, expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Related stocks: PCG (Pacific Gas & Electric Co.) · ELPC (Companhia Paranaense de Energia) · NEE (NextEra Energy, Inc.) · PEG (Public Service Enterprise Group) · DUK (Duke Energy Corporation (Holdin)
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