Value
9.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.1x
- ▸Attractively valued
CMRE · Why this verdict
Why Costamare (CMRE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward P/E of 5.9x combined with 40% operating margins and strong absolute scores on both price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios places the stock in attractively-valued territory, offering meaningful headroom relative to intrinsic value even at current depressed freight market pricing. Valuation breakdown | The valuation gap closes and the stock appreciates toward the $17.85 consensus target within 12 months as the discount narrows. | →Stable |
| CounterShipping companies routinely trade at low multiples because the cycle amplifies earnings volatility; the 5.9x forward P/E may reflect a market consensus that cycle-peak earnings are unsustainable rather than genuine undervaluation. | ||
Analyst consensus earnings estimates have risen 85.9% over the past 30 days — one of the largest short-window upward estimate revisions observable — and the most recent sentiment proxy confirms this as a material positive shift in the market's fundamental outlook for the business. Catalyst breakdown | Earnings estimates continue to rise or remain at elevated levels over the next two quarters, and the next reported quarter delivers a positive EPS surprise that validates the upward revision. | →Stable |
| CounterA sharp 30-day revision of this magnitude can overshoot; if it reflects a temporary spot-rate spike rather than a durable improvement in contracted revenue, estimates could reverse as sharply as they rose. | ||
Free cash flow represents only 42% of net income — a red-flag level of cash conversion — and revenue has declined 5%, together suggesting that reported profits are materially stronger than actual cash generation and that the business is not growing the top line to support the current earnings base. Quality breakdown | The cash-conversion concern resolves when free cash flow rises above 70% of net income for 2 consecutive reported quarters, indicating that the gap between profits and cash generation has normalized. | →Stable |
| CounterShipping businesses often run capital-intensive maintenance cycles that temporarily depress FCF-to-net-income ratios; if the gap is driven by a scheduled fleet investment rather than a structural working-capital issue, it may normalize without impairing distributions. | ||
The stock trades above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume and a momentum score of 6.3 — indicating both institutional accumulation and positive trend confirmation — which supports a favorable near-term price structure despite the overall moderate setup. Momentum breakdown | Price continues to hold above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume remains in an upward trend over the next six months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter was a miss of -8.7% against estimates, which could pressure near-term price action and test technical support; a second consecutive miss could reverse both the estimate trend and the price momentum. | ||
A forward P/E of 5.9x combined with 40% operating margins and strong absolute scores on both price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios places the stock in attractively-valued territory, offering meaningful headroom relative to intrinsic value even at current depressed freight market pricing.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation gap closes and the stock appreciates toward the $17.85 consensus target within 12 months as the discount narrows.
CounterShipping companies routinely trade at low multiples because the cycle amplifies earnings volatility; the 5.9x forward P/E may reflect a market consensus that cycle-peak earnings are unsustainable rather than genuine undervaluation.
Analyst consensus earnings estimates have risen 85.9% over the past 30 days — one of the largest short-window upward estimate revisions observable — and the most recent sentiment proxy confirms this as a material positive shift in the market's fundamental outlook for the business.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings estimates continue to rise or remain at elevated levels over the next two quarters, and the next reported quarter delivers a positive EPS surprise that validates the upward revision.
CounterA sharp 30-day revision of this magnitude can overshoot; if it reflects a temporary spot-rate spike rather than a durable improvement in contracted revenue, estimates could reverse as sharply as they rose.
Free cash flow represents only 42% of net income — a red-flag level of cash conversion — and revenue has declined 5%, together suggesting that reported profits are materially stronger than actual cash generation and that the business is not growing the top line to support the current earnings base.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The cash-conversion concern resolves when free cash flow rises above 70% of net income for 2 consecutive reported quarters, indicating that the gap between profits and cash generation has normalized.
CounterShipping businesses often run capital-intensive maintenance cycles that temporarily depress FCF-to-net-income ratios; if the gap is driven by a scheduled fleet investment rather than a structural working-capital issue, it may normalize without impairing distributions.
The stock trades above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume and a momentum score of 6.3 — indicating both institutional accumulation and positive trend confirmation — which supports a favorable near-term price structure despite the overall moderate setup.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price continues to hold above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume remains in an upward trend over the next six months.
CounterThe most recent quarter was a miss of -8.7% against estimates, which could pressure near-term price action and test technical support; a second consecutive miss could reverse both the estimate trend and the price momentum.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Costamare trades at a forward P/E of 5.9x with 40% operating margins and earnings estimates that have risen 85.9% in 30 days, offering 9.3% upside to the consensus target with a 2.3-to-1 risk/reward in your favor; the primary offset is a free-cash-flow conversion rate of only 42% of net income and a revenue trend that has turned negative at -5%.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.0 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.9 |
| FCF quality | 3.4 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 40%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 42% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 12 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
0.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.2 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -5%
Momentum
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 1.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 47%
- ▸Estimates rising as sentiment proxy (+85.9%)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.5 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 1.6 |
Technical
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.2 |
| support resistance | 8.7 |
| 52w position | 5.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 2.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.2 |
| debt equity | 7.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.67
- ▸High IV: 84%
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 9.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Estimates up 85.9% (30d)
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 351.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.6<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.24
Upside
+25.2%
Downside
7.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 26d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.5 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 9.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.6<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.24 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.7, Sentiment at 7.8, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Growth at 0.6, Momentum at 1.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.24 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value With Strong Margins
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 28% for 2 consecutive reported quarters, indicating that the strong-margin thesis has deteriorated materially.
- P2Rapidly Rising Earnings Estimates
Trip ifAnalyst consensus EPS estimate for the next 12 months falls more than 30% from its current elevated level, reversing the upward revision trend.
- P3Weak Cash Conversion And Declining Revenue
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income rises above 70% for 2 consecutive reported quarters, demonstrating that cash conversion has normalized.
- P4Technical Momentum Above Trend
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average for 10 or more consecutive trading days and on-balance volume turns negative, breaking the technical accumulation pattern.