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CMBTCMB.TECH NVSell6.7·$15.23+4.60%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

CMB.TECH presents a high-growth, attractively valued business with 121% year-over-year revenue expansion and a forward earnings multiple of 10.3x, but inconsistent earnings delivery — three misses before a most-recent beat — and a significantly negative free cash flow position introduce meaningful execution uncertainty that warrants a cautious hold rather than new exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Hypergrowth At Discount ValuationStable
  • Free Cash Flow Deeply NegativeStable
  • Earnings Delivery ImprovementStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

CMB.TECH NV (CMBT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Sell if holding. At $15.23, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 8.7%.

Cmb.Tech NV engages in marine transportation business in Belgium. It operates through three divisions: Marine, H2 Infra, and H2 Industry. The Marine division designs, builds, owns, and operates various low and zero carbon ships and vessels, such as crew transfer vessels,... Read more

$15.23+8.7% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#6 of 46 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-10.98%
IncomeYield5.49%(5y avg 19.01%)Payout5.75%sustainable
Stop $14.15Target $16.53(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$19.45+27.7%4 analysts
$16.53our TP
$15.23price
$19.45mean
$22

Sell if holding. At $15.23, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 8.7%. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 27, 202652d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Margin of safety: 44%
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.7%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.4
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$4.2B
EV/EBITDA10.1
Profit Mgn24.9%
ROE16.8%
Rev Growth121.1%
Beta0.14
Dividend5.49%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV64%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 549.0%
GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 52d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.89Resistance $16.07

Price Targets

$14
$17
A.Upside+8.5%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-27 (52d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CMBT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $15.23, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 8.7%. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $14.15. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CMBT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.53 (+8.7% upside). Prior stop was $14.15. Stop-loss: $14.15.

What are the risks of investing in CMBT?

Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is CMBT overvalued or undervalued?

CMB.TECH NV trades at a P/E of 8.4 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CMBT?

14 analysts cover CMBT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $19.

What does CMB.TECH NV do?Cmb.Tech NV engages in marine transportation business in Belgium. It operates through three divisions: Marine, H2...

Cmb.Tech NV engages in marine transportation business in Belgium. It operates through three divisions: Marine, H2 Infra, and H2 Industry. The Marine division designs, builds, owns, and operates various low and zero carbon ships and vessels, such as crew transfer vessels, ferries, commissioning service operations vessels, tugboats, ammonia-powered large bulk carriers, container ships, and chemical and crude oil tankers. The H2 Infra division develops and secures green molecule supplies; and produces and distributes green hydrogen and ammonia. The H2 Industry division provides scalable dual-fuel industrial applications. The company was formerly known as Euronav NV and changed its name to Cmb.Tech NV in October 2024. Cmb.Tech NV was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Antwerp, Belgium. Cmb.Tech NV is a subsidiary of CMB NV.

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