Value
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.2 |
| P/S | 4.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.17
CLBT · Why this verdict
Why Cellebrite DI (CLBT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A PEG ratio of 0.15 and a forward price-to-earnings of 19.7 times indicate the market is pricing the company's earnings growth at an unusually steep discount relative to its pace, consistent with the characterization of a strong growth profile that has not yet been rewarded in the share price. Valuation breakdown | PEG ratio rises above 0.5 over the next 12 months as either earnings growth decelerates or the multiple expands to close the discount — a move above 0.5 would signal the original mispricing has been materially corrected. | →Stable |
| CounterA very low PEG can persist when the market discounts execution risk, balance-sheet leverage, or small-cap illiquidity; the company's debt-to-equity of 4.5 may be keeping the multiple compressed regardless of the reported growth rate. | ||
The most recent quarter produced a 24% earnings beat — the strongest single-quarter surprise in the trailing four periods — while prior quarters delivered two additional beats and two in-line results with no misses, establishing a delivery track record that supports analyst confidence in the growth estimates. Earnings | EPS misses in 2 consecutive quarters would falsify this pillar by demonstrating the clean delivery record has broken down. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo of the four quarters came in at or near consensus rather than beating, and a large percentage beat in a single quarter can mask the inconsistency in the cadence; if growth estimates continue to rise on the back of the recent outsized beat, the next in-line quarter could read as a disappointment by comparison. | ||
Moving averages have crossed bearishly and the long-term trend line has declined 1.2% over the past 30 days, with the stock sitting below the 200-day moving average — a setup that requires a clear fundamental catalyst to reverse and creates an adverse environment for new entry. Momentum breakdown | The downtrend reverses if the moving average slope turns positive and the stock closes above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks. | →Stable |
| CounterThe RSI sits at 51 — mid-range rather than oversold — and on-balance volume is accumulating (rising) even within the downtrend, suggesting distribution has not set in broadly and a catalyst could shift the picture quickly. | ||
A Rule of 40 score of 49 — clearing the threshold that distinguishes high-quality software businesses — combined with free cash flow running at more than twice reported net income and a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 indicate a financially healthy business that is generating substantially more cash than its accounting earnings suggest. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income AND the Rule of 40 stays above 40 for 4 consecutive quarters, confirming the quality profile is structural. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh free cash flow conversion in software can be driven by deferred revenue or favorable working-capital timing; if the business shifts its mix toward longer sales cycles or higher upfront implementation costs, both the Rule of 40 metric and conversion ratio could compress without a change in the underlying competitive position. | ||
At a 40% discount to the consensus price target, the reward-to-risk ratio stands at approximately 5.7-to-1 in favor of the upside — clearing the threshold for asymmetric positioning — an unusually wide spread that reflects either deep mispricing or a market that is pricing in risks not yet visible in the reported financials. Price targets | The stock closes at least half the gap to $18.27 within 12 months as the downtrend resolves and the fundamental growth thesis is recognized. | →Stable |
| CounterA large implied upside can compress rapidly if consensus estimates are cut; at a $3.3B market cap with higher leverage and confirmed technical weakness, any guidance miss could prompt analysts to reduce their targets, narrowing the apparent discount before the stock moves toward it. | ||
A PEG ratio of 0.15 and a forward price-to-earnings of 19.7 times indicate the market is pricing the company's earnings growth at an unusually steep discount relative to its pace, consistent with the characterization of a strong growth profile that has not yet been rewarded in the share price.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- PEG ratio rises above 0.5 over the next 12 months as either earnings growth decelerates or the multiple expands to close the discount — a move above 0.5 would signal the original mispricing has been materially corrected.
CounterA very low PEG can persist when the market discounts execution risk, balance-sheet leverage, or small-cap illiquidity; the company's debt-to-equity of 4.5 may be keeping the multiple compressed regardless of the reported growth rate.
The most recent quarter produced a 24% earnings beat — the strongest single-quarter surprise in the trailing four periods — while prior quarters delivered two additional beats and two in-line results with no misses, establishing a delivery track record that supports analyst confidence in the growth estimates.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS misses in 2 consecutive quarters would falsify this pillar by demonstrating the clean delivery record has broken down.
CounterTwo of the four quarters came in at or near consensus rather than beating, and a large percentage beat in a single quarter can mask the inconsistency in the cadence; if growth estimates continue to rise on the back of the recent outsized beat, the next in-line quarter could read as a disappointment by comparison.
Moving averages have crossed bearishly and the long-term trend line has declined 1.2% over the past 30 days, with the stock sitting below the 200-day moving average — a setup that requires a clear fundamental catalyst to reverse and creates an adverse environment for new entry.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The downtrend reverses if the moving average slope turns positive and the stock closes above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks.
CounterThe RSI sits at 51 — mid-range rather than oversold — and on-balance volume is accumulating (rising) even within the downtrend, suggesting distribution has not set in broadly and a catalyst could shift the picture quickly.
A Rule of 40 score of 49 — clearing the threshold that distinguishes high-quality software businesses — combined with free cash flow running at more than twice reported net income and a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 indicate a financially healthy business that is generating substantially more cash than its accounting earnings suggest.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income AND the Rule of 40 stays above 40 for 4 consecutive quarters, confirming the quality profile is structural.
CounterHigh free cash flow conversion in software can be driven by deferred revenue or favorable working-capital timing; if the business shifts its mix toward longer sales cycles or higher upfront implementation costs, both the Rule of 40 metric and conversion ratio could compress without a change in the underlying competitive position.
At a 40% discount to the consensus price target, the reward-to-risk ratio stands at approximately 5.7-to-1 in favor of the upside — clearing the threshold for asymmetric positioning — an unusually wide spread that reflects either deep mispricing or a market that is pricing in risks not yet visible in the reported financials.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The stock closes at least half the gap to $18.27 within 12 months as the downtrend resolves and the fundamental growth thesis is recognized.
CounterA large implied upside can compress rapidly if consensus estimates are cut; at a $3.3B market cap with higher leverage and confirmed technical weakness, any guidance miss could prompt analysts to reduce their targets, narrowing the apparent discount before the stock moves toward it.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A software infrastructure company with a Rule of 40 score of 49, free cash flow running at more than twice net income, and a PEG of 0.15 trades 40% below the consensus price target at a 5.7-to-1 reward/risk ratio; the primary obstacle is a confirmed price downtrend — moving averages have crossed bearishly with a declining slope — that blocks entry until a technical reversal materializes.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.5 |
| ROA | 3.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 2.8 |
| Net margin | 7.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 208% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 49 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 8.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 78 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
| erm sentiment | 4.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 34%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $244,083 (0.006% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.7 |
| quality rank | 6.7 |
| growth rank | 5.2 |
Technical
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 2.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 0.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.75
- ▸High IV: 83%
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.1 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:8.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:48d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=8.0>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.12
Upside
+16.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 78
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.12 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.7, Momentum at 8.0, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Technical at 2.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.6, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Growth Priced At Steep Discount
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 0.5, indicating earnings growth has decelerated or the discount has been substantially closed.
- P2Confirmed Price Downtrend Death Cross
Trip ifMoving average slope turns positive AND stock closes above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P3Strong Quality Rule Of 40
Trip ifRule of 40 metric falls below 40 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Large Analyst Upside Favorable Asymmetry
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target is cut to less than $15.00, reducing implied upside below 15%.
- P5Clean Earnings Delivery Record
Trip ifEPS falls below consensus in 2 consecutive quarters.