Value
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.4 |
| P/S | 5.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.15
CLBT · Why this verdict
Why Cellebrite DI (CLBT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A software infrastructure company with a Rule of 40 score of 49, free cash flow running at more than twice net income, and a PEG of 0.15 trades 40% below the consensus price target at a 5.7-to-1 reward/risk ratio; the primary obstacle is a confirmed price downtrend — moving averages have crossed bearishly with a declining slope — that blocks entry until a technical reversal materializes.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A PEG ratio of 0.15 and a forward price-to-earnings of 19.7 times indicate the market is pricing the company's earnings growth at an unusually steep discount relative to its pace, consistent with the characterization of a strong growth profile that has not yet been rewarded in the share price. Valuation breakdown | PEG ratio rises above 0.5 over the next 12 months as either earnings growth decelerates or the multiple expands to close the discount — a move above 0.5 would signal the original mispricing has been materially corrected. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA very low PEG can persist when the market discounts execution risk, balance-sheet leverage, or small-cap illiquidity; the company's debt-to-equity of 4.5 may be keeping the multiple compressed regardless of the reported growth rate. | ||
The most recent quarter produced a 24% earnings beat — the strongest single-quarter surprise in the trailing four periods — while prior quarters delivered two additional beats and two in-line results with no misses, establishing a delivery track record that supports analyst confidence in the growth estimates. Earnings | EPS misses in 2 consecutive quarters would falsify this pillar by demonstrating the clean delivery record has broken down. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo of the four quarters came in at or near consensus rather than beating, and a large percentage beat in a single quarter can mask the inconsistency in the cadence; if growth estimates continue to rise on the back of the recent outsized beat, the next in-line quarter could read as a disappointment by comparison. | ||
Moving averages have crossed bearishly and the long-term trend line has declined 1.2% over the past 30 days, with the stock sitting below the 200-day moving average — a setup that requires a clear fundamental catalyst to reverse and creates an adverse environment for new entry. Momentum breakdown | The downtrend reverses if the moving average slope turns positive and the stock closes above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe RSI sits at 51 — mid-range rather than oversold — and on-balance volume is accumulating (rising) even within the downtrend, suggesting distribution has not set in broadly and a catalyst could shift the picture quickly. | ||
A Rule of 40 score of 49 — clearing the threshold that distinguishes high-quality software businesses — combined with free cash flow running at more than twice reported net income and a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 indicate a financially healthy business that is generating substantially more cash than its accounting earnings suggest. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income AND the Rule of 40 stays above 40 for 4 consecutive quarters, confirming the quality profile is structural. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh free cash flow conversion in software can be driven by deferred revenue or favorable working-capital timing; if the business shifts its mix toward longer sales cycles or higher upfront implementation costs, both the Rule of 40 metric and conversion ratio could compress without a change in the underlying competitive position. | ||
At a 40% discount to the consensus price target, the reward-to-risk ratio stands at approximately 5.7-to-1 in favor of the upside — clearing the threshold for asymmetric positioning — an unusually wide spread that reflects either deep mispricing or a market that is pricing in risks not yet visible in the reported financials. Price targets | The stock closes at least half the gap to $18.27 within 12 months as the downtrend resolves and the fundamental growth thesis is recognized. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterA large implied upside can compress rapidly if consensus estimates are cut; at a $3.3B market cap with higher leverage and confirmed technical weakness, any guidance miss could prompt analysts to reduce their targets, narrowing the apparent discount before the stock moves toward it. | ||
A PEG ratio of 0.15 and a forward price-to-earnings of 19.7 times indicate the market is pricing the company's earnings growth at an unusually steep discount relative to its pace, consistent with the characterization of a strong growth profile that has not yet been rewarded in the share price.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- PEG ratio rises above 0.5 over the next 12 months as either earnings growth decelerates or the multiple expands to close the discount — a move above 0.5 would signal the original mispricing has been materially corrected.
CounterA very low PEG can persist when the market discounts execution risk, balance-sheet leverage, or small-cap illiquidity; the company's debt-to-equity of 4.5 may be keeping the multiple compressed regardless of the reported growth rate.
The most recent quarter produced a 24% earnings beat — the strongest single-quarter surprise in the trailing four periods — while prior quarters delivered two additional beats and two in-line results with no misses, establishing a delivery track record that supports analyst confidence in the growth estimates.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS misses in 2 consecutive quarters would falsify this pillar by demonstrating the clean delivery record has broken down.
CounterTwo of the four quarters came in at or near consensus rather than beating, and a large percentage beat in a single quarter can mask the inconsistency in the cadence; if growth estimates continue to rise on the back of the recent outsized beat, the next in-line quarter could read as a disappointment by comparison.
Moving averages have crossed bearishly and the long-term trend line has declined 1.2% over the past 30 days, with the stock sitting below the 200-day moving average — a setup that requires a clear fundamental catalyst to reverse and creates an adverse environment for new entry.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The downtrend reverses if the moving average slope turns positive and the stock closes above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks.
CounterThe RSI sits at 51 — mid-range rather than oversold — and on-balance volume is accumulating (rising) even within the downtrend, suggesting distribution has not set in broadly and a catalyst could shift the picture quickly.
A Rule of 40 score of 49 — clearing the threshold that distinguishes high-quality software businesses — combined with free cash flow running at more than twice reported net income and a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 indicate a financially healthy business that is generating substantially more cash than its accounting earnings suggest.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income AND the Rule of 40 stays above 40 for 4 consecutive quarters, confirming the quality profile is structural.
CounterHigh free cash flow conversion in software can be driven by deferred revenue or favorable working-capital timing; if the business shifts its mix toward longer sales cycles or higher upfront implementation costs, both the Rule of 40 metric and conversion ratio could compress without a change in the underlying competitive position.
At a 40% discount to the consensus price target, the reward-to-risk ratio stands at approximately 5.7-to-1 in favor of the upside — clearing the threshold for asymmetric positioning — an unusually wide spread that reflects either deep mispricing or a market that is pricing in risks not yet visible in the reported financials.
Tripped↑ImprovingPrice targets
- Expectation
- The stock closes at least half the gap to $18.27 within 12 months as the downtrend resolves and the fundamental growth thesis is recognized.
CounterA large implied upside can compress rapidly if consensus estimates are cut; at a $3.3B market cap with higher leverage and confirmed technical weakness, any guidance miss could prompt analysts to reduce their targets, narrowing the apparent discount before the stock moves toward it.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.5 |
| ROA | 3.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 2.8 |
| Net margin | 7.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 208% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Rule of 40: 49 (pass)
Growth
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 30, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 50%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,553,394 (0.072% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 6.7 |
| growth rank | 5.2 |
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.9 |
| support resistance | 6.4 |
| 52w position | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 0.3 |
| put call | 8.8 |
| implied vol | 1.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 9.8 |
- ▸High IV: 71%
- ▸Above max pain $10
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.1 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:21d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.54
Upside
+30.3%
Downside
11.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.7; weakest: Momentum at 1.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.7, Sentiment at 7.6, and Quality at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 1.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 5.6, and Peer rank at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.54 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Growth Priced At Steep Discount
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 0.5, indicating earnings growth has decelerated or the discount has been substantially closed.
- P2Confirmed Price Downtrend Death Cross
Trip ifMoving average slope turns positive AND stock closes above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P3Strong Quality Rule Of 40
Trip ifRule of 40 metric falls below 40 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Large Analyst Upside Favorable AsymmetryTripped
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target is cut to less than $15.00, reducing implied upside below 15%.
- P5Clean Earnings Delivery Record
Trip ifEPS falls below consensus in 2 consecutive quarters.