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CIFRCipher Digital Inc.Sell3.9·$17.89+7.64%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Cipher Digital is a cash-burning, revenue-shrinking business with a quality profile well below the minimum acceptable level — free cash flow is deeply negative at negative 1,405% of revenue, revenue declined 29% year-over-year, the Piotroski F-Score is 3 out of 9, and the two most recent quarters each missed estimates by wide margins — making the current setup unattractive for investment despite passing momentum thresholds and constructive analyst sentiment.

Thesis pillars

  • Severe Cash BurnStable
  • Revenue ContractionStable
  • Earnings Execution FailureStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Cipher Digital Inc. (CIFR) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthShortHigh Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.89: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10 and A.R:R 4.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.81; Below-average business quality.

Cipher Digital develops, constructs, and operates industrial-scale data centers in power-advantaged locations, transitioning from bitcoin mining to HPC data center leasing for hyperscalers. The company holds 4.2 gigawatts of capacity across 10 sites, including 300 MW facilities... Read more

$17.89+62.2% A.UpsideScore 3.9/10#46 of 47 Information Technology Services
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-39.10%
Stop $16.61Target $28.96(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.2:1
Analyst target$32.18+79.9%17 analysts
$28.96our TP
$17.89price
$32.18mean
$69

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.89: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10 and A.R:R 4.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.81; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-16

Recent Developments — Cipher Digital Inc.

Generated 2026-08-16T18:22:05Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 2, 202677d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Tenant: single-tenant properties
Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)77.6
Mkt Cap$7.4B
EV/EBITDA126.9
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-167.5%
Rev Growth-43.0%
Beta3.22
DividendNone
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C1.81bearish
IV112%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerHPC tenants (Amazon and Fluidstack)
    10-K Item 1: 'we executed HPC leases with Fluidstack and Amazon, which represent a significant portion of our expected future revenues'
  • HIGHTenantsingle-tenant properties
    10-K Item 1A: 'our data centers are single-tenant properties, and we expect future tenants at other sites in our pipeline to also want to be the only tenant'
  • MEDIUMSupplierLuminant power supplier
    10-K Item 1: 'The power at the Odessa Facility is supplied by Luminant ET Services Company LLC ... under a power purchase agreement'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.2
Value Rank
0.2

Volatile — 14.9% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Beta
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Put Call
1.3
Short Interest
1.9
Max Pain Risk
7.0
Days To Cover
8.8
High short interest justified: 16%Elevated put/call: 1.81High IV: 112%Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Moat
2.5
Piotroski F
3.3
Current Ratio
10.0
Cash-burning: FCF -1516% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
1.1
Peg Ratio
8.7
Analyst Target
9.0
Forward P/E: 77.6xPEG: 0.72
GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5INSIDER 1.14%=EXTREMEA.R:R 4.2 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $16.20Resistance $26.84

Price Targets

$17
$29
A.Upside+62.2%
A.R:R4.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)
! momentum at 4.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Insider activity: 1.14%=extreme

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-02 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CIFR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.89: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10 and A.R:R 4.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.81; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $16.61. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

What is the CIFR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.96 (+62.2% upside). Prior stop was $16.61. Stop-loss: $16.61.

What are the risks of investing in CIFR?

Concentration risk — Tenant: single-tenant properties; Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0).

Is CIFR overvalued or undervalued?

Cipher Digital Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 77.6). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CIFR?

25 analysts cover CIFR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $32.

What does Cipher Digital Inc. do?Cipher Digital develops, constructs, and operates industrial-scale data centers in power-advantaged locations,...

Cipher Digital develops, constructs, and operates industrial-scale data centers in power-advantaged locations, transitioning from bitcoin mining to HPC data center leasing for hyperscalers. The company holds 4.2 gigawatts of capacity across 10 sites, including 300 MW facilities at Barber Lake (leased to Fluidstack, backed by Google) and Black Pearl (under a 15-year, 300 MW lease with Amazon Web Services), with phased HPC rent commencement targeted for 2026.

Related stocks: INOD (Innodata Inc.) · FORTY (Formula Systems (1985) Ltd.) · FIS (Fidelity National Information S) · WSE (Wise Group plc) · EPAM (EPAM Systems, Inc.)
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