Cipher Digital is a cash-burning, revenue-shrinking business with a quality profile well below the minimum acceptable level — free cash flow is deeply negative at negative 1,405% of revenue, revenue declined 29% year-over-year, the Piotroski F-Score is 3 out of 9, and the two most recent quarters each missed estimates by wide margins — making the current setup unattractive for investment despite passing momentum thresholds and constructive analyst sentiment.
Thesis pillars
- Severe Cash Burn→Stable
- Revenue Contraction→Stable
- Earnings Execution Failure→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Cipher Digital Inc. (CIFR) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup
Technology · Information Technology Services
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.04: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10 and A.R:R 11.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 7.42; Below-average business quality.
Cipher Digital develops, constructs, and operates industrial-scale data centers in power-advantaged locations, transitioning from bitcoin mining to HPC data center leasing for hyperscalers. The company holds 4.2 gigawatts of capacity across 10 sites, including 300 MW facilities... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.04: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10 and A.R:R 11.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 7.42; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 5, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 16d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-16Recent Developments — Cipher Digital Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Cantor Fitzgerald Maintains Overweight on Cipher Digital, Lowers Price Target to $19 — benzinga Oct 16, 2026 negative
- NEWS 10 Information Technology Stocks Whale Activity In Today’s Session — benzinga Oct 15, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Cipher Digital Stock Drops as AI Buildout Debt Concerns Persist — benzinga Oct 15, 2026 negative
- NEWS Jim Cramer: This Health Care Stock Is A ‘Winner’, X-Energy Is ‘Losing Too Much Money’ — benzinga Oct 15, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Bitcoin Mining's Next Evolution May Be Owning The Rewards, Not The Hardware — benzinga Oct 14, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-16T11:52:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerHPC tenants (Amazon and Fluidstack)10-K Item 1: 'we executed HPC leases with Fluidstack and Amazon, which represent a significant portion of our expected future revenues'
- HIGHTenantsingle-tenant properties10-K Item 1A: 'our data centers are single-tenant properties, and we expect future tenants at other sites in our pipeline to also want to be the only tenant'
- MEDIUMSupplierLuminant power supplier10-K Item 1: 'The power at the Odessa Facility is supplied by Luminant ET Services Company LLC ... under a power purchase agreement'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Volatile — 11.4% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.04: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10 and A.R:R 11.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 7.42; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 5, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $9.34. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $26.96 (+168.5% upside). Prior stop was $9.34. Stop-loss: $9.34.
Concentration risk — Tenant: single-tenant properties; Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 4.2), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.03% of cap).
Cipher Digital Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 44.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover CIFR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $30.
What does Cipher Digital Inc. do?Cipher Digital develops, constructs, and operates industrial-scale data centers in power-advantaged locations,...
Cipher Digital develops, constructs, and operates industrial-scale data centers in power-advantaged locations, transitioning from bitcoin mining to HPC data center leasing for hyperscalers. The company holds 4.2 gigawatts of capacity across 10 sites, including 300 MW facilities at Barber Lake (leased to Fluidstack, backed by Google) and Black Pearl (under a 15-year, 300 MW lease with Amazon Web Services), with phased HPC rent commencement targeted for 2026.