Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.1 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.32
- ▸Attractively valued
CCK · Why this verdict
Why Crown Holdings (CCK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Four consecutive quarterly earnings beats — with the two older quarters delivering positive surprises of approximately 13% and 15% while the most recent two delivered smaller but still positive beats of 0.68% and 2.24% — reflect a consistent pattern of delivering above analyst estimates across different operating conditions. Earnings | At least 3 of the next 4 quarters beat analyst consensus, with an average positive surprise above 5%, sustaining the execution track record. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two most recent beats were slim — under 3% each — suggesting the margin of outperformance has narrowed materially and the streak may be more fragile than the historical average implies. | ||
A forward P/E of 11.3x and a PEG of 0.28 indicate that the market is pricing in earnings growth at a meaningful discount — a combination that suggests the equity is attractively valued relative to its earnings trajectory. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings estimates increase over the next 12 months such that the stock trades up to the analyst consensus target near $108.75 while the forward multiple holds below 15x, validating the value-growth combination. | →Stable |
| CounterAttractive headline multiples can mask leverage risk and distribution sustainability concerns; the dividend payout ratio of 122% suggests distributions may exceed net income, which could constrain the financial flexibility implied by the low multiple. | ||
The global beverage can business represents 73% of revenue, and international operations account for 61% of the total mix, creating a concentrated exposure to a single end-market and elevated sensitivity to conditions that are outside management's direct control. Bear case | The beverage can segment accounts for less than 60% of revenue over the next 2 annual periods, signaling meaningful diversification away from the single-product dependence. | →Stable |
| CounterDeep concentration in one end-market creates operating scale and cost efficiency advantages; a business that has beaten earnings four consecutive quarters while operating with this level of concentration has demonstrated that it can manage the exposure effectively. | ||
The stock sits below its 200-day moving average but the decline is described as recent and shallow — too early to call a confirmed downtrend — with MACD improving and RSI at 56, suggesting a potential recovery that has not yet been validated by price action. Momentum breakdown | Stock reclaims and holds above its 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks, confirming the technical recovery and removing residual downtrend uncertainty. | →Stable |
| CounterA death cross has formed, and even shallow breaks below the 200-day moving average can deepen if broader conditions weaken; the recovery setup could take several months to resolve, leaving capital deployed at current levels in an uncertain technical position. | ||
Four consecutive quarterly earnings beats — with the two older quarters delivering positive surprises of approximately 13% and 15% while the most recent two delivered smaller but still positive beats of 0.68% and 2.24% — reflect a consistent pattern of delivering above analyst estimates across different operating conditions.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- At least 3 of the next 4 quarters beat analyst consensus, with an average positive surprise above 5%, sustaining the execution track record.
CounterThe two most recent beats were slim — under 3% each — suggesting the margin of outperformance has narrowed materially and the streak may be more fragile than the historical average implies.
A forward P/E of 11.3x and a PEG of 0.28 indicate that the market is pricing in earnings growth at a meaningful discount — a combination that suggests the equity is attractively valued relative to its earnings trajectory.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates increase over the next 12 months such that the stock trades up to the analyst consensus target near $108.75 while the forward multiple holds below 15x, validating the value-growth combination.
CounterAttractive headline multiples can mask leverage risk and distribution sustainability concerns; the dividend payout ratio of 122% suggests distributions may exceed net income, which could constrain the financial flexibility implied by the low multiple.
The global beverage can business represents 73% of revenue, and international operations account for 61% of the total mix, creating a concentrated exposure to a single end-market and elevated sensitivity to conditions that are outside management's direct control.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The beverage can segment accounts for less than 60% of revenue over the next 2 annual periods, signaling meaningful diversification away from the single-product dependence.
CounterDeep concentration in one end-market creates operating scale and cost efficiency advantages; a business that has beaten earnings four consecutive quarters while operating with this level of concentration has demonstrated that it can manage the exposure effectively.
The stock sits below its 200-day moving average but the decline is described as recent and shallow — too early to call a confirmed downtrend — with MACD improving and RSI at 56, suggesting a potential recovery that has not yet been validated by price action.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Stock reclaims and holds above its 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks, confirming the technical recovery and removing residual downtrend uncertainty.
CounterA death cross has formed, and even shallow breaks below the 200-day moving average can deepen if broader conditions weaken; the recovery setup could take several months to resolve, leaving capital deployed at current levels in an uncertain technical position.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Four consecutive quarterly beats with a forward P/E of 11.3x and a PEG of 0.28 offer a compelling combination of earnings delivery and valuation, supported by a roughly 2-to-1 reward-to-risk ratio; the main constraints are an asymmetry ratio of 1.0-to-1 that falls short of the 1.5-to-1 entry bar and over 70% revenue dependence on a single end-market, which limits the margin for error if conditions in that market deteriorate.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.7 |
| ROA | 4.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.3 |
| Op margin | 4.4 |
| Net margin | 2.8 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.6 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 26%
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 94)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.5 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $3,163,875 (0.025% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 6.8 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.3 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 6.4 |
| put call | 6.2 |
| implied vol | 4.6 |
| beta | 9.2 |
| debt equity | 3.2 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 108.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:17d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.27
Upside
-4.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 17d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.27 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.8, Value at 7.6, and Momentum at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 3.6, Insider at 3.9, and Quality at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.27 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS misses analyst consensus by more than 3% in 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the delivery pattern.
- P2Attractive Valuation Growth Combination
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 20x without a corresponding increase in forward EPS estimates.
- P3Beverage Can Geographic Concentration
Trip ifBeverage can segment falls below 55% of total revenue over 2 consecutive annual periods, confirming meaningful diversification.
- P4Technical Recovery Not Yet Confirmed
Trip ifStock reclaims and holds above its 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks.