Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.3 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.29
- ▸Attractively valued
CCK · Why this verdict
Why Crown Holdings (CCK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Crown Holdings is a cheaply valued packaging business with strong returns on equity, but the stock has already reached the analyst target and is overbought, leaving little room for upside against a concentrated beverage-can and international footprint.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Crown trades at a low forward P/E of 13.1x with a PEG of 0.30, so the shares remain attractively valued relative to growth. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays near or below ~14x while earnings growth supports the PEG staying under 1.0 over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe price is already about 0.7% above the analyst target, so the cheap multiples may simply reflect a re-rating that has already happened with no remaining upside. | ||
Crown earns an excellent 27% return on equity, indicating the capital-intensive packaging franchise converts capital into profit well. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 20% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 27% ROE on a leveraged balance sheet is flattered by debt, while operating margin (4.8/10) and net margin (2.9/10) component scores are weak. | ||
About 73% of the business is the global beverage can, so results depend heavily on a single product category. Bear case | Beverage can volumes hold steady and the segment share does not rise further over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterBeverage cans are a durable, recyclable packaging format with steady demand, so concentration may be less risky than it looks. | ||
About 61% of the business is international operations, exposing results to currency and regional macro swings. Bear case | Reported earnings stay resilient despite foreign-exchange and regional demand shifts over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGeographic diversification can also cushion regional downturns and international demand for cans is structurally growing. | ||
The share price of $119.24 is above the $118.45 analyst target, leaving no upside and 12.3% downside to the stop level, so the reward-to-risk is negative. Warnings | Price stays near the target without a meaningful pullback; further gains require analysts to raise targets. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalysts often lag price; strong momentum above the 200-day average could drive target upgrades and the stock could keep rising. | ||
Crown trades at a low forward P/E of 13.1x with a PEG of 0.30, so the shares remain attractively valued relative to growth.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays near or below ~14x while earnings growth supports the PEG staying under 1.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterThe price is already about 0.7% above the analyst target, so the cheap multiples may simply reflect a re-rating that has already happened with no remaining upside.
Crown earns an excellent 27% return on equity, indicating the capital-intensive packaging franchise converts capital into profit well.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 20% over the next 12 months.
CounterA 27% ROE on a leveraged balance sheet is flattered by debt, while operating margin (4.8/10) and net margin (2.9/10) component scores are weak.
About 73% of the business is the global beverage can, so results depend heavily on a single product category.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Beverage can volumes hold steady and the segment share does not rise further over 12 months.
CounterBeverage cans are a durable, recyclable packaging format with steady demand, so concentration may be less risky than it looks.
About 61% of the business is international operations, exposing results to currency and regional macro swings.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Reported earnings stay resilient despite foreign-exchange and regional demand shifts over 12 months.
CounterGeographic diversification can also cushion regional downturns and international demand for cans is structurally growing.
The share price of $119.24 is above the $118.45 analyst target, leaving no upside and 12.3% downside to the stop level, so the reward-to-risk is negative.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Price stays near the target without a meaningful pullback; further gains require analysts to raise targets.
CounterAnalysts often lag price; strong momentum above the 200-day average could drive target upgrades and the stock could keep rising.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.0 |
| ROA | 4.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 4.8 |
| Net margin | 2.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.6 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 27%
Growth
5.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.5 |
| EPS growth | 4.5 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.5 |
Insider
4.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.7 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 7.8 |
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.5 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 7.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.7 |
| debt equity | 3.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.39
- ▸Above max pain $65
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.2 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.1% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:92d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.18
Upside
-2.2%
Downside
12.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.18 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.6, Catalyst at 6.9, and Momentum at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 4.1, Insider at 4.2, and Quality at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.18 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Multiples
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 18x from the current 13.1x.
- P2High Return On Equity
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 15% from the current 27%.
- P3Beverage Can Concentration Risk
Trip ifBeverage can share of the business exceeds 80% from the current 73%.
- P4International Exposure Risk
Trip ifInternational operations share exceeds 70% from the current 61%.
- P5Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifPrice drops to below the $113.48 stop level from the current $119.24.