Value
5.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| p ocf | 4.1 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 28.1x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
CBRE · Why this verdict
Why CBRE Group (CBRE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CBRE has a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak and 16.7% analyst upside, but low business quality (3.7), no moat and a confirmed downtrend below the 200-day average keep the stock a recovery bet.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
CBRE has beaten EPS estimates in all four recent quarters, with an average surprise of 13.7%. Earnings track record | EPS beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe surprise has shrunk from 42% to under 5% in the latest quarter, and thin margins make results sensitive to transaction volumes. | ||
The price of $128.85 is 16.7% below the $150.36 analyst target, with a reward-to-risk of 2.32 against 7.2% downside. Upside pct | The stock closes much of the gap to the analyst target over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe stock is below its 200-day average with a -3.2%/30d slope, a confirmed downtrend, and analysts may be slow to cut targets. | ||
Business quality scores 3.7, below the 4.0 floor, with thin operating and net margins (1.6 and 1.5 scores) and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Quality score recovers above 4.0 as margins improve. | →Stable |
| CounterLow margins are typical of a service intermediary, and a persistent quality shortfall limits any premium multiple. | ||
The price sits below its 200-day average with the average sloping down 3.2% per 30 days, though rising on-balance volume shows accumulation. Momentum breakdown | The price reclaims its 200-day moving average within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA death cross with a falling long-term average often precedes further declines, and accumulation signals can fail. | ||
News sentiment is positive at +0.30 with analyst upside cited at 34%, supporting the recovery case. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst rating and sentiment scores stay above 7 over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterSentiment is based on only 3 articles, so the signal is thin and can reverse on one negative headline. | ||
CBRE has beaten EPS estimates in all four recent quarters, with an average surprise of 13.7%.
↓DeterioratingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- EPS beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe surprise has shrunk from 42% to under 5% in the latest quarter, and thin margins make results sensitive to transaction volumes.
The price of $128.85 is 16.7% below the $150.36 analyst target, with a reward-to-risk of 2.32 against 7.2% downside.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- The stock closes much of the gap to the analyst target over 12 months.
CounterThe stock is below its 200-day average with a -3.2%/30d slope, a confirmed downtrend, and analysts may be slow to cut targets.
Business quality scores 3.7, below the 4.0 floor, with thin operating and net margins (1.6 and 1.5 scores) and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score recovers above 4.0 as margins improve.
CounterLow margins are typical of a service intermediary, and a persistent quality shortfall limits any premium multiple.
The price sits below its 200-day average with the average sloping down 3.2% per 30 days, though rising on-balance volume shows accumulation.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price reclaims its 200-day moving average within 12 months.
CounterA death cross with a falling long-term average often precedes further declines, and accumulation signals can fail.
News sentiment is positive at +0.30 with analyst upside cited at 34%, supporting the recovery case.
↓DeterioratingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst rating and sentiment scores stay above 7 over the next 12 months.
CounterSentiment is based on only 3 articles, so the signal is thin and can reverse on one negative headline.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.4 |
| ROA | 1.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.6 |
| Net margin | 1.5 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| FCF quality | 6.6 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.7 |
| EPS growth | 7.1 |
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $367,463 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.9 |
| quality rank | 7.2 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 1.7 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 8.9 |
| volatility | 3.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
- ▸Above max pain $95
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.3 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:100d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.1>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.05
Upside
+11.0%
Downside
10.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 1.1<1.5@spot outcome against Catalyst at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of 1.05.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.3, Sentiment at 7.0, and Growth at 6.4; the weakest are Technical at 3.1, Quality at 3.7, and Insider at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.05 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Analyst Upside To Target
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target falls below 8% from the current 16.7%.
- P3Low Quality No Moat
Trip ifQuality score stays below 3.5 from the current 3.7 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Momentum
Trip ifThe 200-day average slope falls below -5% per 30 days from the current -3.2%.
- P5Positive News Sentiment
Trip ifLLM news sentiment falls below -0.20 from the current +0.30.