Value
5.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| p ocf | 3.4 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 32.4x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
CBRE · Why this verdict
Why CBRE Group (CBRE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality falls below the minimum 4.0 floor, with near-bottom component scores on both operating and net margin dimensions and the quality assessment flagging the absence of a competitive moat. The underlying profitability structure does not meet a basic threshold of return-generating durability at current levels. Warnings | Business quality assessment rises above 5.0 out of 10 for 2 consecutive periods, reflecting genuine improvement in margin and moat metrics. | →Stable |
| CounterReal estate services businesses structurally operate on thin reported margins; profitability should be assessed on return on equity and earnings growth rather than margin percentages alone, and the company's return on equity compares favorably to peers on a relative basis. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed price downtrend — the 200-day moving average slope is declining at 2.0% per month and a death cross has triggered a hard technical block. Short-term indicators such as an improving MACD and RSI near 58 hint at early stabilization, but the longer-term technical structure remains deteriorating. Engine gate (failed) | The death cross resolves into a golden cross and the 200-day moving average slope turns flat or positive within 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAn improving MACD and RSI near 58 alongside a death cross is a classic early-recovery technical pattern; the long-term structural block may prove overly conservative if fundamentals continue to improve while the price action carves a bottom. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters with an average positive surprise of roughly 16%. The most recent quarter delivered $1.61 actual against a $1.13 estimate — a 42% positive surprise — indicating the business is recovering faster than analysts have modeled. Earnings | Earnings beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters with average quarterly surprise above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge positive surprises of 42% often reflect a period when analyst estimates have been anchored too low; as models reset higher following the beat streak, the bar rises and the probability of sustaining the streak at similar magnitudes decreases. | ||
The canonical price target geometry shows 15.8% potential return to the near-term resistance level with a 2.7-to-1 favorable risk/reward — a materially attractive setup if the quality and trend headwinds resolve. Analyst consensus is constructive with approximately 33% upside in their underlying models. Price targets | Price advances to within 5% of the $155.37 target within 12 months as the technical downtrend reversal completes. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst price targets are grounded in fundamental models and may not reflect the confirmed technical downtrend; targets can remain elevated for quarters while a stock in a deteriorating trend continues to drift lower, making the gap between analyst target and price an unreliable timing signal. | ||
The options market shows a put-to-call ratio of 1.77 and implied volatility at 68%, indicating above-average bearish conviction among options market participants. This positioning suggests institutional hedgers or directional traders anticipate continued near-term weakness. Risk breakdown | Put-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 and implied volatility retreats below 40% as price action stabilizes and bearish hedges are unwound. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put-to-call ratios can reflect long holders hedging downside rather than speculative short bets; if the hedges expire worthless on continued fundamental delivery, the unwind would itself create a demand catalyst for the stock. | ||
Business quality falls below the minimum 4.0 floor, with near-bottom component scores on both operating and net margin dimensions and the quality assessment flagging the absence of a competitive moat. The underlying profitability structure does not meet a basic threshold of return-generating durability at current levels.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Business quality assessment rises above 5.0 out of 10 for 2 consecutive periods, reflecting genuine improvement in margin and moat metrics.
CounterReal estate services businesses structurally operate on thin reported margins; profitability should be assessed on return on equity and earnings growth rather than margin percentages alone, and the company's return on equity compares favorably to peers on a relative basis.
The stock is in a confirmed price downtrend — the 200-day moving average slope is declining at 2.0% per month and a death cross has triggered a hard technical block. Short-term indicators such as an improving MACD and RSI near 58 hint at early stabilization, but the longer-term technical structure remains deteriorating.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The death cross resolves into a golden cross and the 200-day moving average slope turns flat or positive within 6 months.
CounterAn improving MACD and RSI near 58 alongside a death cross is a classic early-recovery technical pattern; the long-term structural block may prove overly conservative if fundamentals continue to improve while the price action carves a bottom.
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters with an average positive surprise of roughly 16%. The most recent quarter delivered $1.61 actual against a $1.13 estimate — a 42% positive surprise — indicating the business is recovering faster than analysts have modeled.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters with average quarterly surprise above 10%.
CounterLarge positive surprises of 42% often reflect a period when analyst estimates have been anchored too low; as models reset higher following the beat streak, the bar rises and the probability of sustaining the streak at similar magnitudes decreases.
The canonical price target geometry shows 15.8% potential return to the near-term resistance level with a 2.7-to-1 favorable risk/reward — a materially attractive setup if the quality and trend headwinds resolve. Analyst consensus is constructive with approximately 33% upside in their underlying models.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price advances to within 5% of the $155.37 target within 12 months as the technical downtrend reversal completes.
CounterAnalyst price targets are grounded in fundamental models and may not reflect the confirmed technical downtrend; targets can remain elevated for quarters while a stock in a deteriorating trend continues to drift lower, making the gap between analyst target and price an unreliable timing signal.
The options market shows a put-to-call ratio of 1.77 and implied volatility at 68%, indicating above-average bearish conviction among options market participants. This positioning suggests institutional hedgers or directional traders anticipate continued near-term weakness.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 and implied volatility retreats below 40% as price action stabilizes and bearish hedges are unwound.
CounterElevated put-to-call ratios can reflect long holders hedging downside rather than speculative short bets; if the hedges expire worthless on continued fundamental delivery, the unwind would itself create a demand catalyst for the stock.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CBRE has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging 16% above estimates and offers 15.8% potential return to the analyst-derived price target with a 2.7-to-1 favorable risk/reward — but business quality falls below the minimum acceptable threshold, the stock is in a confirmed price downtrend with a death cross structure, and elevated put-to-call options positioning suggests the fundamental recovery has not yet translated into price-trend recovery.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.2 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.1 |
| Net margin | 1.6 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 6.2 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
8.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.4 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $309,182 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 6.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 8.8 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 4.0 |
| implied vol | 5.4 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.86
Upside
+8.4%
Downside
9.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 25d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 8.6 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.6, Catalyst at 7.6, and Sentiment at 7.2; the weakest are Technical at 2.8, Quality at 3.3, and Momentum at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.86 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Minimum Threshold
Trip ifBusiness quality score rises above 5.0 out of 10 for 2 consecutive assessment periods.
- P2Confirmed Price Downtrend Death Cross
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope turns flat (0% or positive per month) and price closes above the 200-day MA for 5 consecutive sessions.
- P3Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) in any 1 of the next 2 earnings reports.
- P4Material Analyst Backed Upside
Trip ifStock declines more than 15% from current levels, closing below $114 for 3 consecutive sessions.
- P5Elevated Put Call Options Positioning
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 for 3 consecutive weekly measurements.