Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.3 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.6 |
| PEG | 7.5 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.91
- ▸Attractively valued
CACI · Why this verdict
Why CACI International (CACI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 16.2x and a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.92, the stock screens attractively valued, and analyst consensus implies roughly 16% headroom to the price target from current levels. Valuation breakdown | The share price closes within 5% of the $588 analyst consensus target within 12 months as the valuation discount narrows. | →Stable |
| CounterThe apparent valuation discount depends on federal spending remaining stable; if government budget pressure or a continuing resolution weighs on contract revenues and prompts estimate cuts, the 16.2x multiple could compress and the upside gap could shrink or disappear. | ||
With approximately 95.7% of revenue drawn from the federal government and 75.4% tied specifically to the Department of Defense, the company is highly exposed to defense budget cycles, continuing resolutions, and shifts in government spending priorities entirely outside its control. Bear case | Federal revenue concentration declines below 90% of total revenue over the next 12 months, indicating early progress toward customer diversification. | →Stable |
| CounterLong-term government IT services contracts tend to be highly sticky, and deep federal specialization can be a structural competitive advantage in a market where agencies pay a premium for proven cleared contractors — making concentration a durable strength rather than a latent liability. | ||
The company has beaten analyst estimates in each of the four most recent quarters, with the average upside surprise running at approximately 12% — a pattern consistent with disciplined guidance setting rather than episodic outperformance. Earnings | The earnings beat streak extends through at least two more quarters, with quarterly EPS surprises remaining above 0%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two most recent quarterly beats registered just 4.95% and 4.75% above consensus, well below the 11% and 28% surprises seen in the two earlier periods, suggesting the margin of outperformance has narrowed materially and the streak may be approaching its natural limits. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with falling on-balance volume, but the moving average itself is still trending upward at approximately 0.7% per month, suggesting the current weakness has not confirmed a breakdown and may represent a pullback within an ongoing longer-term uptrend. Momentum breakdown | The share price recrosses its 200-day moving average within two quarters and on-balance volume shifts from distribution to net accumulation. | →Stable |
| CounterA put/call ratio of 2.90 indicates the options market is positioning for significant additional downside; if institutional hedging demand persists and the 200-day average slope eventually turns negative, the pullback-in-uptrend interpretation would be invalidated. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 16.2x and a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.92, the stock screens attractively valued, and analyst consensus implies roughly 16% headroom to the price target from current levels.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The share price closes within 5% of the $588 analyst consensus target within 12 months as the valuation discount narrows.
CounterThe apparent valuation discount depends on federal spending remaining stable; if government budget pressure or a continuing resolution weighs on contract revenues and prompts estimate cuts, the 16.2x multiple could compress and the upside gap could shrink or disappear.
With approximately 95.7% of revenue drawn from the federal government and 75.4% tied specifically to the Department of Defense, the company is highly exposed to defense budget cycles, continuing resolutions, and shifts in government spending priorities entirely outside its control.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Federal revenue concentration declines below 90% of total revenue over the next 12 months, indicating early progress toward customer diversification.
CounterLong-term government IT services contracts tend to be highly sticky, and deep federal specialization can be a structural competitive advantage in a market where agencies pay a premium for proven cleared contractors — making concentration a durable strength rather than a latent liability.
The company has beaten analyst estimates in each of the four most recent quarters, with the average upside surprise running at approximately 12% — a pattern consistent with disciplined guidance setting rather than episodic outperformance.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends through at least two more quarters, with quarterly EPS surprises remaining above 0%.
CounterThe two most recent quarterly beats registered just 4.95% and 4.75% above consensus, well below the 11% and 28% surprises seen in the two earlier periods, suggesting the margin of outperformance has narrowed materially and the streak may be approaching its natural limits.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with falling on-balance volume, but the moving average itself is still trending upward at approximately 0.7% per month, suggesting the current weakness has not confirmed a breakdown and may represent a pullback within an ongoing longer-term uptrend.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The share price recrosses its 200-day moving average within two quarters and on-balance volume shifts from distribution to net accumulation.
CounterA put/call ratio of 2.90 indicates the options market is positioning for significant additional downside; if institutional hedging demand persists and the 200-day average slope eventually turns negative, the pullback-in-uptrend interpretation would be invalidated.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Four consecutive quarters of earnings beats averaging approximately 12% above consensus, a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 16.2x, and a risk/reward ratio of 2.3-to-1 make this an attractively valued government technology franchise; the primary near-term risk is momentum weakness alongside elevated options hedging demand, offset by the observation that the 200-day trend line remains intact and rising.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 2.5 |
| Op margin | 3.9 |
| Net margin | 2.9 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| FCF quality | 6.2 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
| EPS growth | 5.5 |
Momentum
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.2 |
| Volume | 4.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 33%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $132,100 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 3.8 |
| 52w position | 4.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.9 |
| days to cover | 4.8 |
| volatility | 2.2 |
| put call | 5.9 |
| implied vol | 5.1 |
| beta | 9.8 |
| debt equity | 4.4 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.6 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.14
Upside
+15.5%
Downside
13.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.14 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.3, Value at 7.0, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.5, Technical at 4.2, and Quality at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractively Valued Material Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls to or below $507.56 (current price), eliminating all analyst-derived upside.
- P3Federal Concentration Spending Risk
Trip ifFederal government revenue concentration falls below 85% of total revenue for 2 consecutive fiscal reporting periods.
- P4Momentum Overhang Intact Uptrend
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope turns negative while the share price remains below it for 3 consecutive months.