Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.6 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.1 |
| PEG | 7.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.00
CACI · Why this verdict
Why CACI International (CACI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CACI is a quality government IT contractor with strong momentum and a high Piotroski score, but the price has passed the analyst target and revenue is almost entirely federal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Federal government contracts are 95.6% of revenue and Department of War agencies are 53.6%, so results hinge on one budget process. Bear case | Federal contract awards keep revenue growing while concentration stays near current levels. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDefense and intelligence IT demand is durable and recompete wins offset budget noise. | ||
The price is above the analyst target of $672.48 (upside of -0.5%), leaving no cushion. Warnings | Estimates rise and targets are lifted above the current price. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterStrong momentum and institutional accumulation may push the price further above stale targets. | ||
Momentum scores 6.8 with rising volume, though RSI of 78 shows the stock is overbought. Momentum breakdown | Price stays above its 200-day average over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn RSI of 78 often precedes a pullback, and implied volatility of 107% signals nervous options pricing. | ||
Piotroski score is 8/9 and forward P/E is 17.6x with a PEG of 0.96, a fair price for a steady contractor. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays under 20x as earnings grow. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe business has no competitive moat and growth scores only 3.6 out of 10. | ||
Federal government contracts are 95.6% of revenue and Department of War agencies are 53.6%, so results hinge on one budget process.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Federal contract awards keep revenue growing while concentration stays near current levels.
CounterDefense and intelligence IT demand is durable and recompete wins offset budget noise.
The price is above the analyst target of $672.48 (upside of -0.5%), leaving no cushion.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Estimates rise and targets are lifted above the current price.
CounterStrong momentum and institutional accumulation may push the price further above stale targets.
Momentum scores 6.8 with rising volume, though RSI of 78 shows the stock is overbought.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price stays above its 200-day average over 12 months.
CounterAn RSI of 78 often precedes a pullback, and implied volatility of 107% signals nervous options pricing.
Piotroski score is 8/9 and forward P/E is 17.6x with a PEG of 0.96, a fair price for a steady contractor.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays under 20x as earnings grow.
CounterThe business has no competitive moat and growth scores only 3.6 out of 10.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.2 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 2.8 |
| Op margin | 4.0 |
| Net margin | 2.8 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| FCF quality | 7.7 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 2.7 |
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 7.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.6 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
| erm sentiment | 4.6 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.2 |
| quality rank | 4.8 |
| growth rank | 6.0 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.3 |
| support resistance | 5.4 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 2.3 |
| put call | 7.6 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.8 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
- ▸Above max pain $460
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.7 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:77d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.77
Upside
+6.4%
Downside
8.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.77 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Sentiment at 7.2, and Catalyst at 7.2; the weakest are Growth at 3.6, Peer rank at 4.4, and Quality at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.77 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Federal Customer Concentration
Trip ifDepartment of War share of revenue exceeds 60% from the current 53.6%.
- P2Target Reached
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Strong Momentum Overbought
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5 from the current 6.8.
- P4Solid Financial Quality
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 22x from the current 17.6x.