Value
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.12
- ▸Attractively valued
CAAP · Why this verdict
Why Corporacion America Airports (CAAP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Corporacion America Airports is deeply discounted with a 47% margin of safety and a strong Piotroski score, but repeated earnings misses and a downtrend explain the discount.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 10.5x with a PEG of 0.12 and a 47% margin of safety. Bull case | Valuation holds under 12x forward P/E while earnings recover. | →Stable |
| CounterEmerging-market airport concessions carry currency and political risk that justify a persistent discount. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at about 210% of net income and the Piotroski score is 9/9. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income stays above 100%. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh cash conversion may reflect timing of working capital or concession payments and may not repeat. | ||
CAAP missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a 32.7% miss in the latest report. Earnings | EPS returns to meeting or beating consensus for at least 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA beat of about 100% in one quarter shows results are volatile and consensus estimates are unreliable. | ||
Momentum scores 2.5 with price below the 200-day average and falling on-balance volume. Momentum breakdown | Price stabilizes and momentum score rises above 4.5. | →Stable |
| CounterOversold conditions plus 18.7% upside to target could attract buyers and reverse the trend. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 10.5x with a PEG of 0.12 and a 47% margin of safety.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Valuation holds under 12x forward P/E while earnings recover.
CounterEmerging-market airport concessions carry currency and political risk that justify a persistent discount.
Cash conversion is excellent at about 210% of net income and the Piotroski score is 9/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income stays above 100%.
CounterHigh cash conversion may reflect timing of working capital or concession payments and may not repeat.
CAAP missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a 32.7% miss in the latest report.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS returns to meeting or beating consensus for at least 2 quarters.
CounterA beat of about 100% in one quarter shows results are volatile and consensus estimates are unreliable.
Momentum scores 2.5 with price below the 200-day average and falling on-balance volume.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price stabilizes and momentum score rises above 4.5.
CounterOversold conditions plus 18.7% upside to target could attract buyers and reverse the trend.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.8 |
| ROA | 4.7 |
| Gross margin | 2.9 |
| Op margin | 7.9 |
| Net margin | 6.8 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 210% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 3.3 |
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 1.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 3.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 37%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 1.0 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.8 |
| support resistance | 6.9 |
| 52w position | 6.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 3.3 |
| volatility | 2.6 |
| put call | 7.0 |
| implied vol | 1.7 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 7.6 |
- ▸High IV: 70%
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:19d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.37
Upside
+18.8%
Downside
7.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.37 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.8, Technical at 7.0, and Quality at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 2.5, Peer rank at 2.9, and Growth at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.37 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Airports
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x with no earnings recovery.
- P2Cash Conversion Strength
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income falls below 80% from the current 210%.
- P3Earnings Misses Pressure
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% in the next 2 reported quarters.
- P4Downtrend Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 3.0 for 3 consecutive months.