Value
9.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.8 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
BVN · Why this verdict
Why Buenaventura Mining Company (BVN) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BVN is a high-quality precious metals miner (9/9 Piotroski, 28% ROE, 49% margins, 26% growth) trading at 7.1x forward P/E with 26.9% upside to the analyst target, but it is in an oversold pullback that argues for waiting for stabilization.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at 7.1x forward P/E (PEG 0.05) with a $26.42 price that is 26.9% below the $33.52 analyst target against 8.8% downside. Upside pct | Price moves toward the $33.52 target as earnings keep beating. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMining multiples are low at cyclical peaks, so cheap earnings may be at risk if metal prices fall. | ||
Quality is high at 8.5/10, with 28% ROE, 49% margins, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 20% and the Piotroski score stays at 8 or higher. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEarnings quality is a red flag at 36% FCF/NI, so reported profits are not fully converting into cash, and commodity prices can reverse margins quickly. | ||
Growth is strong at 26% YoY, and earnings beat in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.98 vs $0.89 on 2026-10-29. Last 4 quarters | Earnings continue to beat estimates, with the next report due 2027-02-25. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe 2026-07-29 quarter missed ($0.94 vs $1.03), and revenue data for the next quarter is provisional, so the beat streak may not hold. | ||
Momentum is negative at 3.2/10, with RSI at 19, falling OBV and a selloff on 2.2x average volume, although the 200-day average is still rising 1.3% per 30 days. Momentum breakdown | Momentum stabilizes before the price rebuilds above its 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCapitulation volume and a falling OBV can mark the start of a deeper decline rather than a bottom. | ||
The balance sheet is strong (current ratio score 9.3, debt-to-equity score 9.4) and the dividend yield is 4.3%, with dividend safety at 7.0/10. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety stays above 6/10. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMining dividends depend on metal prices, and a downturn could force a cut regardless of the current balance sheet. | ||
The stock trades at 7.1x forward P/E (PEG 0.05) with a $26.42 price that is 26.9% below the $33.52 analyst target against 8.8% downside.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $33.52 target as earnings keep beating.
CounterMining multiples are low at cyclical peaks, so cheap earnings may be at risk if metal prices fall.
Quality is high at 8.5/10, with 28% ROE, 49% margins, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 20% and the Piotroski score stays at 8 or higher.
CounterEarnings quality is a red flag at 36% FCF/NI, so reported profits are not fully converting into cash, and commodity prices can reverse margins quickly.
Growth is strong at 26% YoY, and earnings beat in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.98 vs $0.89 on 2026-10-29.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Earnings continue to beat estimates, with the next report due 2027-02-25.
CounterThe 2026-07-29 quarter missed ($0.94 vs $1.03), and revenue data for the next quarter is provisional, so the beat streak may not hold.
Momentum is negative at 3.2/10, with RSI at 19, falling OBV and a selloff on 2.2x average volume, although the 200-day average is still rising 1.3% per 30 days.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum stabilizes before the price rebuilds above its 200-day average.
CounterCapitulation volume and a falling OBV can mark the start of a deeper decline rather than a bottom.
The balance sheet is strong (current ratio score 9.3, debt-to-equity score 9.4) and the dividend yield is 4.3%, with dividend safety at 7.0/10.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety stays above 6/10.
CounterMining dividends depend on metal prices, and a downturn could force a cut regardless of the current balance sheet.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.5 |
| ROA | 7.5 |
| Gross margin | 8.5 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.3 |
| FCF quality | 2.9 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 28%
- ▸Strong margins: 49%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 36% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
9.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.3 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 44%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.0 |
| quality rank | 7.0 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.8 |
| support resistance | 8.8 |
| 52w position | 2.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.7 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 2.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.1 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸High IV: 73%
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 7.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 4.2%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 1.6 < 4.5 minimum. Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE->V9:WEAK_MOMENTUM|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:114d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:0/3
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.6<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.14
Upside
+25.3%
Downside
8.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=9.3
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.6<4.5 outcome against Growth at 9.6 and asymmetric R:R of 3.14.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.6, Value at 9.3, and Quality at 8.5; the weakest are Momentum at 1.6, Peer rank at 4.8, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.14 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Compounder Economics
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 30% from current 49%.
- P2Deep Value With Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $28, more than 15% under the current $33.52.
- P3Strong Growth And Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Oversold Pullback Momentum
Trip ifPrice drops to $23.49 or lower, the stop level, more than 11% below the current $26.42.
- P5Dividend And Balance Sheet
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 4/10 from current 7.0.