Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
BVN · Why this verdict
Why Buenaventura Mining Company (BVN) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Buenaventura has compounded strong returns through four consecutive earnings beats averaging 61% above consensus, backed by a 26% return on equity, 48% operating margins, and a wide economic moat — all trading at a forward multiple of 10.3x with a PEG of 0.07; the fundamentals are compelling, but with the analyst consensus target essentially reached and an elevated put/call ratio of 3.15 reflecting heavy bearish options positioning, the setup favors patience and a re-entry on a pullback rather than chasing at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 10.3x and a PEG ratio of 0.07 against a backdrop of 103% year-over-year earnings growth offer a rare combination — strong fundamental momentum priced as though almost no growth premium is warranted. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple expands above 14x over 12 months as the earnings growth trajectory attracts institutional re-rating of the growth-adjusted discount. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMining-sector multiples are inherently volatile and commodity-price-driven; an expansion to 14x assumes the earnings growth rate is sustainable, but a commodity price downturn could compress both earnings and the multiple simultaneously, negating the value case. | ||
A put/call ratio of 3.15 and implied volatility of 109% indicate that options markets are positioned heavily for downside — a level of bearish skew that creates near-term headline risk and can amplify any adverse price move regardless of the underlying fundamental picture. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio normalizes below 1.5 over 12 months as the bearish options positioning unwinds in response to continued earnings delivery. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios in high-quality names can represent hedging demand from existing long holders rather than outright bearish bets; the underlying fundamental picture may not deteriorate even as options activity remains elevated. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters with an average surprise of 61% above the Street's forecast, demonstrating a consistent pattern of delivering well ahead of expectations — including a 9% beat in the oldest quarter followed by accelerating outperformance through three straight quarters. Earnings | The beat streak extends for at least two additional quarters, with the average earnings surprise remaining above 10% over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA 61% average surprise is unsustainable as an ongoing run rate; analysts will adjust their models upward aggressively after each successive beat, compressing the cushion, and the most recent quarter's moderation to 15% above estimates may already signal that normalization is underway. | ||
A return on equity of 26%, operating margins of 48%, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and a wide economic moat combine to define a high-quality business compounding returns from a structurally advantaged position — a profile that commands a premium multiple and justifies holding through near-term volatility. Quality breakdown | Return on equity stays above 20% and operating margins hold above 40% for at least the next two annual periods, confirming the quality profile is structural rather than cyclical. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is only 24% of reported net income — a pronounced gap that raises a question about the quality of the earnings being reported and whether the stated profitability is fully translating into cash that can compound for shareholders. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 10.3x and a PEG ratio of 0.07 against a backdrop of 103% year-over-year earnings growth offer a rare combination — strong fundamental momentum priced as though almost no growth premium is warranted.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple expands above 14x over 12 months as the earnings growth trajectory attracts institutional re-rating of the growth-adjusted discount.
CounterMining-sector multiples are inherently volatile and commodity-price-driven; an expansion to 14x assumes the earnings growth rate is sustainable, but a commodity price downturn could compress both earnings and the multiple simultaneously, negating the value case.
A put/call ratio of 3.15 and implied volatility of 109% indicate that options markets are positioned heavily for downside — a level of bearish skew that creates near-term headline risk and can amplify any adverse price move regardless of the underlying fundamental picture.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio normalizes below 1.5 over 12 months as the bearish options positioning unwinds in response to continued earnings delivery.
CounterElevated put/call ratios in high-quality names can represent hedging demand from existing long holders rather than outright bearish bets; the underlying fundamental picture may not deteriorate even as options activity remains elevated.
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters with an average surprise of 61% above the Street's forecast, demonstrating a consistent pattern of delivering well ahead of expectations — including a 9% beat in the oldest quarter followed by accelerating outperformance through three straight quarters.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends for at least two additional quarters, with the average earnings surprise remaining above 10% over the next 12 months.
CounterA 61% average surprise is unsustainable as an ongoing run rate; analysts will adjust their models upward aggressively after each successive beat, compressing the cushion, and the most recent quarter's moderation to 15% above estimates may already signal that normalization is underway.
A return on equity of 26%, operating margins of 48%, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and a wide economic moat combine to define a high-quality business compounding returns from a structurally advantaged position — a profile that commands a premium multiple and justifies holding through near-term volatility.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity stays above 20% and operating margins hold above 40% for at least the next two annual periods, confirming the quality profile is structural rather than cyclical.
CounterFree cash flow is only 24% of reported net income — a pronounced gap that raises a question about the quality of the earnings being reported and whether the stated profitability is fully translating into cash that can compound for shareholders.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.3 |
| ROA | 7.2 |
| Gross margin | 8.2 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.8 |
| FCF quality | 1.1 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 28%
- ▸Strong margins: 48%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 13% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 43% YoY
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 8.0 |
| growth rank | 4.4 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.7 |
| 52w position | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 1.5 |
| put call | 2.3 |
| implied vol | 0.2 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.66
- ▸High IV: 79%
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Fundamentals strong but target reached (-5.5% upside).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33|V8:TARGET_REACHED|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:79d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.37
Upside
-5.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.4=NEGATIVE outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of -0.37.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.2, and Value at 7.9; the weakest are Technical at 2.2, Insider at 5.0, and Sentiment at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.37 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Earnings Beat Momentum
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Wide Moat High Return Quality
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 15% for 2 consecutive annual reporting periods.
- P3Growth At Steep Valuation Discount
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 16x without a corresponding upward revision to consensus EPS estimates of at least 20%.
- P4Elevated Bearish Options Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 for 4 consecutive weeks, confirming the heavy bearish options positioning has fully unwound.