Value
9.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
BTU · Why this verdict
Why Peabody Energy (BTU) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BTU is cheap at a 7.9x forward P/E with 21.3% upside to the analyst target, but repeated earnings misses, cash burn, a confirmed downtrend and 51% seaborne concentration keep the stock in exit territory.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Earnings have missed in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a -$0.41 actual vs -$0.32 estimate on 2026-07-29, with an average surprise of -77%. Last 4 quarters | Results fail to beat estimates in the coming quarters, including the report due 2026-11-04. | →Stable |
| CounterThe earliest quarter in the window was a beat and revenue has grown from $890M to $1,003M year over year, so earnings could recover. | ||
Quality is poor at 2.2/10 (below the 4.0 floor), with FCF at -1% of revenue and near-zero margin scores. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays negative and quality stays below 4/10 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA very strong current ratio score (7.0) and debt/equity score (9.5) show a sound balance sheet that can absorb losses through a downcycle. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend: RSI 30, below the 200-day average with a -3.1%/30d slope, falling OBV, and a drawdown of 46% from its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Price stays below its 200-day average over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRSI near 30 signals capitulation, which often precedes a sharp bounce, and technical support/Bollinger scores are high. | ||
The stock trades at 7.9x forward P/E with $22.18 versus a $26.90 analyst target, 21.3% upside against 9.6% downside. Upside pct | Price moves toward the $26.90 target if earnings stabilize. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterCheap multiples on thermal coal reflect depressed earnings, and analyst targets follow trailing results that have kept missing. | ||
Geographic concentration is a risk, with 51.0% of exposure in seaborne (international) markets, and short interest is high at 14%. Bear case | Seaborne exposure stays near or above half of the business. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterSeaborne markets can offer better pricing than domestic thermal demand, so concentration may support revenue. | ||
Earnings have missed in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a -$0.41 actual vs -$0.32 estimate on 2026-07-29, with an average surprise of -77%.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Results fail to beat estimates in the coming quarters, including the report due 2026-11-04.
CounterThe earliest quarter in the window was a beat and revenue has grown from $890M to $1,003M year over year, so earnings could recover.
Quality is poor at 2.2/10 (below the 4.0 floor), with FCF at -1% of revenue and near-zero margin scores.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays negative and quality stays below 4/10 over the next 12 months.
CounterA very strong current ratio score (7.0) and debt/equity score (9.5) show a sound balance sheet that can absorb losses through a downcycle.
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend: RSI 30, below the 200-day average with a -3.1%/30d slope, falling OBV, and a drawdown of 46% from its 52-week high.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price stays below its 200-day average over the next 12 months.
CounterRSI near 30 signals capitulation, which often precedes a sharp bounce, and technical support/Bollinger scores are high.
The stock trades at 7.9x forward P/E with $22.18 versus a $26.90 analyst target, 21.3% upside against 9.6% downside.
Tripped↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $26.90 target if earnings stabilize.
CounterCheap multiples on thermal coal reflect depressed earnings, and analyst targets follow trailing results that have kept missing.
Geographic concentration is a risk, with 51.0% of exposure in seaborne (international) markets, and short interest is high at 14%.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Seaborne exposure stays near or above half of the business.
CounterSeaborne markets can offer better pricing than domestic thermal demand, so concentration may support revenue.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenue
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 50%
Insider
4.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.8 |
| support resistance | 10.0 |
| 52w position | 0.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.2 |
| days to cover | 5.6 |
| volatility | 0.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.89
- ▸High IV: 87%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.3 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.8<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.10
Upside
+30.2%
Downside
9.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -50% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.8<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.0 and asymmetric R:R of 3.10.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Growth at 7.8, and Sentiment at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 1.8, Quality at 2.2, and Catalyst at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Repeated Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Cash Burning Low Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow exceeds 5% of revenue from current -1%.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice rises above its 200-day average with the 30-day slope above 0%.
- P4Cheap Valuation Analyst UpsideTripped
Trip ifPrice falls below the $21.18 stop level, more than 4% below the current $22.18.
- P5Seaborne Market Concentration
Trip ifSeaborne share of exposure falls below 40% from current 51.0%.