Should you buy Peabody Energy (BTU)?
Updated
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Engine methodology range
Range computation requires sufficient peer-comparable data; available for tickers with peer_count ≥3.
What the engine is tracking
- Deep Value Low Forward Pe→Stable
- Quality Below Minimum Threshold→Stable
- High Short Interest Options Skew→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
→ Full pillar scorecard with all 4 pillars + per-dimension breakdown
When this thesis breaks
Falsifiable conditions per pillar — any one trip warrants review independent of price action. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Low Forward Pe
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 10x for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the value discount has closed.
- P2Quality Below Minimum Threshold
Trip ifFree cash flow rises above 0% of revenue for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3High Short Interest Options Skew
Trip ifShort interest falls below 8% and put/call ratio drops below 0.8 for 2 consecutive months.
- P4Geographic Concentration Risk
Trip ifSeaborne revenue falls below 40% of total revenue mix for 2 consecutive annual periods.
How the engine reached this verdict
TrendMatrix's engine output for Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) is SELL_IF_HOLDING with medium conviction, score 4.8/10 at $22.20. An L1 hard-floor gate blocked the positive-verdict path — Quality below minimum threshold. Co-failing gates ( MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5) reinforce the read; dimensional pillars cannot lift the engine output above the verdict floor while the L1 gate is active.
The dominant failed gate is momentum at 1.5 vs threshold 4.5. SELL flips back toward HOLD if momentum recovers above its threshold AND a co-failing gate also clears. The strongest-cleared gate today is ASYMMETRY:3.3>=1.5.
On the bear side: Concentration risk — Geographic: seaborne (international) markets (51.0%); Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0). Active engine warnings: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0), V9 Gate Failed: MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5.
The engine's exit framework anchors to a tactical sell band near $22.20, with structural invalidation at $21.39. The asymmetric R:R against a reversal hypothesis is 3.31 — the upside scenario exists, but it requires multiple structural gates to flip; the downside scenario requires only one more disappointment. The engine's sizing output: 0.5% of portfolio at this asymmetry level (none-conviction tier).
For the full 10-dimension breakdown + V9 gate detail: Why TrendMatrix rates BTU — 10-dimension breakdown →
Bear case
- ▸Concentration risk — Geographic: seaborne (international) markets (51.0%)
- ▸Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)