Value
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.20
BRK-A · Why this verdict
Why Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock currently trades above the resistance-based price target, leaving negative headroom and an unfavorable risk/reward where the defined downside exceeds any near-term potential gain. Price targets | A pullback that brings the stock back below the target level of $730,349 would restore positive headroom and improve the entry case. | →Stable |
| CounterStocks with strong momentum can trade through prior resistance levels and establish new ranges; what looks like overextension may simply be trend continuation in a fundamentally improving business. | ||
The stock trades above its 200-day moving average with rising volume accumulation and a bullish MACD configuration — broad-based technical strength that supports an existing position. Momentum breakdown | Continuation above the 200-day moving average with volume accumulation persisting over the next 6 months would validate the momentum thesis. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum at these levels relies on continued positive news flow; any further earnings disappointment could rapidly unwind the technical setup. | ||
The two most recent quarters both missed analyst estimates — the latest by roughly 2% and the prior quarter by roughly 18% — interrupting a prior two-quarter beat streak and raising questions about near-term earnings visibility. Earnings | Returning to positive earnings surprises in the next two quarters would be needed to restore confidence in earnings delivery. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two quarters before the recent misses both beat estimates, and a PEG ratio of 0.20 suggests the market may be pricing in a temporary earnings trough rather than a structural deterioration. | ||
A PEG ratio of 0.20 indicates the market is pricing the earnings stream at a deep discount to the growth rate, suggesting significant long-term value even at the current price. Valuation breakdown | If earnings growth continues to outpace multiple expansion over the next 12 months, the valuation gap would close and support a higher intrinsic value estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterA very low PEG often reflects cyclical earnings near a peak; if recent earnings growth proves non-repeatable, the apparent cheapness would quickly reverse alongside estimate cuts. | ||
The stock currently trades above the resistance-based price target, leaving negative headroom and an unfavorable risk/reward where the defined downside exceeds any near-term potential gain.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A pullback that brings the stock back below the target level of $730,349 would restore positive headroom and improve the entry case.
CounterStocks with strong momentum can trade through prior resistance levels and establish new ranges; what looks like overextension may simply be trend continuation in a fundamentally improving business.
The stock trades above its 200-day moving average with rising volume accumulation and a bullish MACD configuration — broad-based technical strength that supports an existing position.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Continuation above the 200-day moving average with volume accumulation persisting over the next 6 months would validate the momentum thesis.
CounterMomentum at these levels relies on continued positive news flow; any further earnings disappointment could rapidly unwind the technical setup.
The two most recent quarters both missed analyst estimates — the latest by roughly 2% and the prior quarter by roughly 18% — interrupting a prior two-quarter beat streak and raising questions about near-term earnings visibility.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Returning to positive earnings surprises in the next two quarters would be needed to restore confidence in earnings delivery.
CounterThe two quarters before the recent misses both beat estimates, and a PEG ratio of 0.20 suggests the market may be pricing in a temporary earnings trough rather than a structural deterioration.
A PEG ratio of 0.20 indicates the market is pricing the earnings stream at a deep discount to the growth rate, suggesting significant long-term value even at the current price.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- If earnings growth continues to outpace multiple expansion over the next 12 months, the valuation gap would close and support a higher intrinsic value estimate.
CounterA very low PEG often reflects cyclical earnings near a peak; if recent earnings growth proves non-repeatable, the apparent cheapness would quickly reverse alongside estimate cuts.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The business demonstrates strong price momentum and an attractive growth-adjusted valuation, but the stock has risen above the near-term resistance target with an unfavorable risk/reward, and two consecutive earnings misses add near-term uncertainty — the setup favors holding rather than adding at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.5 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 1.6 |
| Op margin | 5.7 |
| Net margin | 9.7 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.2 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.8 |
| quality rank | 4.3 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 9.9 |
| volatility | 9.3 |
| beta | 9.4 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
Catalyst
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.4 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.33
Upside
-15.3%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 9.6; weakest: Peer rank at 3.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 9.6, Value at 6.8, and Growth at 6.8; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.1, Technical at 3.2, and Catalyst at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.33 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Resistance Target
Trip ifStock price falls below the resistance target of $730,349 for 2 consecutive weeks, restoring positive upside headroom.
- P2Strong Price Momentum
Trip ifStock falls below the 200-day moving average for 2 consecutive weeks.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS exceeds analyst consensus estimates in 2 consecutive quarters, restoring the prior beat pattern.
- P4Attractive Growth Adjusted Valuation
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0, indicating earnings growth has decelerated to match the earnings multiple.