Value
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.9 |
| P/S | 7.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.1 |
| PEG | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.61
BOX · Why this verdict
Why Box (BOX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Box is a high-return software business (70% ROE, 289% FCF/NI) with strong momentum, but the $43.45 price is 20.2% above the $34.68 analyst target and the stock is near its 52-week high with RSI at 91.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Box earns an exceptional 70% ROE with 289% free cash flow to net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 40% and free cash flow stays above net income over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh ROE can reflect a small or shrinking equity base from buybacks rather than operating strength, and the Rule of 40 score is only 5.5. | ||
At $43.45 the stock is above the $34.68 analyst target (upside of -20.2%), so analyst-implied upside is negative. Upside pct | Analyst targets are raised toward $43 as earnings grow, or the price consolidates. | →Stable |
| CounterA 20.2% premium to target with RSI at 91 makes a pullback likely before targets catch up. | ||
Box has not missed in the last 4 quarters (2 beats, 2 in-line), including a +45.9% beat in March. Last 4 quarters | EPS meets or beats estimates in the report due 2026-12-01 and the next three after. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRecent beats are tiny (+0.47% and +2.01%), so the stock has little cushion at a 25.0x forward P/E. | ||
Momentum is strong at 7.0/10 with the stock only 0.9% below its 52-week high, but RSI is 91 (overbought). Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day average through a consolidation. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRSI at 91 is an extreme reading that typically resolves in a pullback. | ||
Short interest is 16% with quality at 7.5, a squeeze setup, while insiders have sold $2,667,396. Risk breakdown | Short interest declines as earnings are delivered, without insider selling accelerating. | ↑Improving |
| CounterInsider conviction scores 2.0 and sales near highs may signal management sees limited upside. | ||
Box earns an exceptional 70% ROE with 289% free cash flow to net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 40% and free cash flow stays above net income over 12 months.
CounterHigh ROE can reflect a small or shrinking equity base from buybacks rather than operating strength, and the Rule of 40 score is only 5.5.
At $43.45 the stock is above the $34.68 analyst target (upside of -20.2%), so analyst-implied upside is negative.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised toward $43 as earnings grow, or the price consolidates.
CounterA 20.2% premium to target with RSI at 91 makes a pullback likely before targets catch up.
Box has not missed in the last 4 quarters (2 beats, 2 in-line), including a +45.9% beat in March.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats estimates in the report due 2026-12-01 and the next three after.
CounterRecent beats are tiny (+0.47% and +2.01%), so the stock has little cushion at a 25.0x forward P/E.
Momentum is strong at 7.0/10 with the stock only 0.9% below its 52-week high, but RSI is 91 (overbought).
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day average through a consolidation.
CounterRSI at 91 is an extreme reading that typically resolves in a pullback.
Short interest is 16% with quality at 7.5, a squeeze setup, while insiders have sold $2,667,396.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest declines as earnings are delivered, without insider selling accelerating.
CounterInsider conviction scores 2.0 and sales near highs may signal management sees limited upside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 3.5 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 4.1 |
| Net margin | 5.3 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 70%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 289% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 83)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 3.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,667,396 (0.045% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.2 |
| quality rank | 7.4 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 0.6 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 3.7 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 5.7 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.2 |
| debt equity | 1.2 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 16% short, quality 7.5
- ▸Above max pain $24
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.4 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.42
Upside
-21.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.42 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.4, Catalyst at 7.1, and Quality at 6.7; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.4, Insider at 3.8, and Technical at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.42 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Excellent Returns Cash Conversion
Trip ifROE falls below 40% from current 70%.
- P2Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifShare price falls more than 20% from $43.45 to below $34.68, the analyst target.
- P3Steady Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Overbought Near High
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.5 from current 7.0.
- P5Short Interest Squeeze Risk
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $10,000,000 over 90 days.