Value
6.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| PEG | 7.6 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 94.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.91
BORR · Why this verdict
Why Borr Drilling (BORR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score4.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Borr Drilling has heavy insider buying but quality of 2.9 is below the 4.0 floor, revenue is declining 13%, cash is burning and the stock has little room to the $4.25 analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Insiders bought $57,404,869 (4.617% of market cap) and institutions are accumulating, a strong show of conviction. Insider breakdown | Insider ownership holds or rises and no net insider selling appears over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge buyers can be strategic investors supporting a leveraged company rather than signaling an operating turnaround. | ||
Revenue is declining 13% and the growth component for revenue scores 0.0, with the peer growth rank at 0.0. Growth breakdown | Revenue declines narrow to under 5% as rig utilization and day rates stabilize. | →Stable |
| CounterOffshore drilling is cyclical and a further decline in demand would deepen losses. | ||
Quality is 2.9, below the 4.0 floor, with free cash flow at -7% of revenue and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive and quality recovers above 4.0. | →Stable |
| CounterContinued cash burn with debt-to-equity scoring only 2.4 raises refinancing risk. | ||
At $4.02 the stock is only 5.7% below the $4.25 analyst target against 15% downside, a reward-to-risk of 0.38. Upside pct | Analyst target is raised well above $4.25 on an earnings recovery. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterWith light analyst coverage and negative news sentiment (-0.60), the target may be cut instead. | ||
Momentum is 2.3/10 with falling on-balance volume, although the price is a pullback below a still-rising 200-day average (+0.8%/30d). Momentum breakdown | Momentum recovers above 4.5 as the price reclaims the 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterVolume distribution and a 14% short interest point to sellers dominating. | ||
Insiders bought $57,404,869 (4.617% of market cap) and institutions are accumulating, a strong show of conviction.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider ownership holds or rises and no net insider selling appears over 12 months.
CounterLarge buyers can be strategic investors supporting a leveraged company rather than signaling an operating turnaround.
Revenue is declining 13% and the growth component for revenue scores 0.0, with the peer growth rank at 0.0.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue declines narrow to under 5% as rig utilization and day rates stabilize.
CounterOffshore drilling is cyclical and a further decline in demand would deepen losses.
Quality is 2.9, below the 4.0 floor, with free cash flow at -7% of revenue and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive and quality recovers above 4.0.
CounterContinued cash burn with debt-to-equity scoring only 2.4 raises refinancing risk.
At $4.02 the stock is only 5.7% below the $4.25 analyst target against 15% downside, a reward-to-risk of 0.38.
Tripped↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst target is raised well above $4.25 on an earnings recovery.
CounterWith light analyst coverage and negative news sentiment (-0.60), the target may be cut instead.
Momentum is 2.3/10 with falling on-balance volume, although the price is a pullback below a still-rising 200-day average (+0.8%/30d).
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above 4.5 as the price reclaims the 200-day average.
CounterVolume distribution and a 14% short interest point to sellers dominating.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.5 |
| Gross margin | 4.7 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -7% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -13%
Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 1.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 5.2 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 2.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 47%
- ▸Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-6.9%)
Insider
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 9.0 |
| insider conviction | 6.3 |
| holder change | 9.3 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider buying — $57,404,869 (5.574% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
1.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.8 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 2.4 |
- ▸High IV: 92%
Catalyst
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -6.9% (30d)
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
1.84
Upside
+27.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -50% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.6<4.5 outcome against Insider at 7.4 and asymmetric R:R of 1.84.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.4, Value at 6.8, and Technical at 6.6; the weakest are Peer rank at 1.2, Catalyst at 1.6, and Momentum at 2.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.84 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Heavy Insider Buying
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $5,000,000 over 90 days.
- P2Declining Revenue
Trip ifRevenue decline exceeds 20% YoY from current -13%.
- P3Cash Burn Low Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below -15% of revenue from current -7%.
- P4Limited Upside To TargetTripped
Trip ifShare price falls below the $3.74 stop level, more than 7% below $4.02.
- P5Weak Momentum Pullback
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 2.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.