Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
BLCO · Why this verdict
Why Bausch + Lomb (BLCO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bausch + Lomb is free-cash-flow positive with a perfect 9/9 Piotroski score and strong momentum after a +54.7% earnings beat, but price is 5.9% above the analyst target and the business is concentrated in vision care with limited-source suppliers.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Bausch + Lomb generates positive free cash flow despite a GAAP loss, with a 7% free cash flow margin, a 5.7% free cash flow yield and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin stays above 7% and GAAP profitability turns positive over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterReturn on equity and net margin components both score 0.0, so the GAAP loss shows the business is not yet earning a return on its capital. | ||
The latest quarter beat by +54.7% (0.34 versus 0.22 expected on 2026-10-28), and 2 of the last 4 quarters were beats with an average surprise of +23.3%. Last 4 quarters | Quarterly EPS keeps meeting or beating estimates through the 2027-02-17 report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA February miss of -10.3% shows results are uneven, and small per-share figures make percentage surprises volatile. | ||
Price of $20.00 is 5.9% above the analyst target of $18.83, so the target is reached and reward-to-risk is negative at -0.39. Upside pct | Analysts raise targets above $20 after the strong quarter, or price retraces toward $18.60. | ↑Improving |
| CounterTargets typically lag a post-earnings rally with positive news sentiment (+0.31), so upward revisions could follow. | ||
The Vision Care segment is 57.0% of the business, and two high-severity concentration risks include supplier dependence on a single source or limited number of sources. Bear case | No supply disruption occurs and the revenue mix diversifies below 55% vision care. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA leading position in a core category can be a strength, and the data shows no actual supply interruption. | ||
RSI is overbought at 85 with price above the 200-day average and rising on-balance volume, while the Bollinger score is only 0.2. Momentum breakdown | RSI cools below 70 with price holding above the 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAccumulation volume and a strong MACD suggest institutions are buying, so overbought conditions can persist. | ||
Bausch + Lomb generates positive free cash flow despite a GAAP loss, with a 7% free cash flow margin, a 5.7% free cash flow yield and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin stays above 7% and GAAP profitability turns positive over 12 months.
CounterReturn on equity and net margin components both score 0.0, so the GAAP loss shows the business is not yet earning a return on its capital.
The latest quarter beat by +54.7% (0.34 versus 0.22 expected on 2026-10-28), and 2 of the last 4 quarters were beats with an average surprise of +23.3%.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly EPS keeps meeting or beating estimates through the 2027-02-17 report.
CounterA February miss of -10.3% shows results are uneven, and small per-share figures make percentage surprises volatile.
Price of $20.00 is 5.9% above the analyst target of $18.83, so the target is reached and reward-to-risk is negative at -0.39.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above $20 after the strong quarter, or price retraces toward $18.60.
CounterTargets typically lag a post-earnings rally with positive news sentiment (+0.31), so upward revisions could follow.
The Vision Care segment is 57.0% of the business, and two high-severity concentration risks include supplier dependence on a single source or limited number of sources.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- No supply disruption occurs and the revenue mix diversifies below 55% vision care.
CounterA leading position in a core category can be a strength, and the data shows no actual supply interruption.
RSI is overbought at 85 with price above the 200-day average and rising on-balance volume, while the Bollinger score is only 0.2.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI cools below 70 with price holding above the 200-day average.
CounterAccumulation volume and a strong MACD suggest institutions are buying, so overbought conditions can persist.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 8.5 |
| Op margin | 5.4 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.7 |
| FCF quality | 5.5 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 7%, FCF yield 5.6%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
Momentum
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.7 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 89)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.7 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
Insider
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 8.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $3,488,437 (0.049% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.9 |
| quality rank | 2.3 |
| growth rank | 4.3 |
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.9 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 3.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.4 |
| beta | 9.9 |
| debt equity | 6.3 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:104d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.55
Upside
-8.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.55 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.3, Value at 7.0, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 4.1, Peer rank at 4.2, and Growth at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.55 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Fcf Positive Despite Gaap Loss
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below 4% from current 7%.
- P2Earnings Beat Momentum
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% in the 2027-02-17 report and the following quarter.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice drops to $18.60 or below, the stop level, before the analyst target is raised.
- P4Vision Care And Supplier Concentration
Trip ifVision Care share of revenue exceeds 60% from current 57.0%.
- P5Overbought Rally
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 from current 7.8.