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BILIBilibili Inc.Sell5.5·$17.21-1.25%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A forward P/E of 13.2 times, a PEG of 0.40, and four consecutive earnings beats offer a potentially attractive valuation entry point, but business quality below the 4.0 minimum floor and a confirmed downtrend with elevated bearish options positioning (put/call ratio of 1.33) mean the setup does not yet support an investable position.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Investable FloorStable
  • Deep Value With Analyst UpsideStable
  • Consistent Earnings ExecutionStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Bilibili Inc. (BILI) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Internet Content & Information

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.21: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 7.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services for the young generations in the People's Republic of China. It offers a range of digital content, including professional user generated videos (PUGV), mobile games, and value-added services, such as live broadcasting,... Read more

$17.21+58.5% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#21 of 37 Internet Content & Information
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
Stop $15.94Target $27.17(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 7.4:1
Analyst target$29.54+71.6%30 analysts
$27.17our TP
$17.21price
$29.54mean
$36

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.21: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 7.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 20, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)35.0
P/E (Fwd)12.8
Mkt Cap$7.1B
EV/EBITDA-2.3
Profit Mgn4.6%
ROE9.4%
Rev Growth6.7%
Beta0.69
DividendNone
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.24bullish
IV77%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
4.0
Quality Rank
4.4
Value Rank
5.6

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Operating Margin
0.9
Roa
1.4
Net Margin
2.3
Roe
3.1
Gross Margin
3.4
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.8
Piotroski F
7.8
Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
GatesMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.3>=4.5A.R:R 7.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $15.79Resistance $18.64

Price Targets

$16
$27
A.Upside+57.9%
A.R:R7.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-20 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BILI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.21: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 7.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $15.94. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BILI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.17 (+58.5% upside). Prior stop was $15.94. Stop-loss: $15.94.

What are the risks of investing in BILI?

Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is BILI overvalued or undervalued?

Bilibili Inc. trades at a P/E of 35.0 (forward 12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BILI?

34 analysts cover BILI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $30.

What does Bilibili Inc. do?Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services for the young generations in the People's Republic of China. It...

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services for the young generations in the People's Republic of China. It offers a range of digital content, including professional user generated videos (PUGV), mobile games, and value-added services, such as live broadcasting, occupationally generated videos, audio drama on Maoer, comics on Bilibili Comic, PUGV content in fan charging program and premium courses, and Bilibili premium courses and community-based avatar decoration. The company also provides advertising services; and IP derivatives and other services. In addition, it engages in the business and technology development activities; e-commerce business; and video, comics, and game distribution activities. Bilibili Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

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