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Bilibili Inc. (BILI) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Internet Content & Information

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.54, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Negative momentum.

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services for the young generations in the People's Republic of China. It offers a range of digital content, including professional user generated videos (PUGV), mobile games, and value-added services, such as live broadcasting,... Read more

$21.54+32.4% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#16 of 27 Internet Content & Information
Stop $20.36Target $28.50(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 5.2:1
Analyst target$30.98+43.8%31 analysts
$28.50our TP
$21.54price
$30.98mean
$38

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.54, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Risks
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)51.1
P/E (Fwd)15.6
Mkt Cap$8.9B
EV/EBITDA-1.8
Profit Mgn3.9%
ROE8.0%
Rev Growth7.6%
Beta0.87
DividendNone
Rating analysts37

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.21bullish
IV68%elevated
Max Pain$15-30.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.4
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 30, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.6
Growth Rank
4.6
Value Rank
5.9
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5A.R:R 5.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 19d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
30 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $20.99Resistance $25.62

Price Targets

$20
$29
A.Upside+32.3%
A.R:R5.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 1.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-19 (19d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BILI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.54, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $28.50 (+32.3%), stop $20.36 (−5.8%), A.R:R 5.2:1. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BILI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.50 (+32.4% upside). Target $28.50 (+32.3%), stop $20.36 (−5.8%), A.R:R 5.2:1. Stop-loss: $20.36.

What are the risks of investing in BILI?

Negative momentum.

Is BILI overvalued or undervalued?

Bilibili Inc. trades at a P/E of 51.1 (forward 15.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BILI?

37 analysts cover BILI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $31.

What does Bilibili Inc. do?Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services for the young generations in the People's Republic of China. It...

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services for the young generations in the People's Republic of China. It offers a range of digital content, including professional user generated videos (PUGV), mobile games, and value-added services, such as live broadcasting, occupationally generated videos, audio drama on Maoer, comics on Bilibili Comic, PUGV content in fan charging program and premium courses, and Bilibili premium courses and community-based avatar decoration. The company also provides advertising services; and IP derivatives and other services. In addition, it engages in the business and technology development activities; e-commerce business; and video, comics, and game distribution activities. Bilibili Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

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