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Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Internet Content & Information

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $35.35, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.5%; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8.

Match Group, Inc., through its portfolio companies, is a leading provider of digital technologies designed to

$35.35+4.5% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#5 of 27 Internet Content & Information
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield9.62%
IncomeYield2.23%(5y avg 1.52%)Payout29.39%sustainable
Stop $33.97Target $36.95(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$41.06+16.1%17 analysts
$36.95our TP
$35.35price
$41.06mean
$51

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $35.35, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.5%; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.9Qual8.4Grw6.8Mom2.9Sent6.8Ins3.9Peer4.6Tech8.5Risk6.76.3OVERALL

Recent Developments — Match Group, Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • Apr 30, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: . Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 29, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Match Group, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.4 in RISK_OFF)
Earnings estimates trending UP
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.5%
Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.7
P/E (Fwd)8.5
Mkt Cap$8.4B
EV/EBITDA10.2
Profit Mgn18.8%
ROE—
Rev Growth3.9%
Beta1.36
Dividend2.23%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.36bullish
IV44%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-30Item 5.02MEDIUM
    . Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 29, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Match Group, Inc.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-05Item 5.02MEDIUM
    MATCH GROUP, INC. | | | By: | /s/ Sean Edgett | | Sean Edgett | | Chief Legal Officer and Secretary Date: March 5, 2026
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Exhibit Number | Description [99.1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/891103/000089110326000022/mtch8-k20260217ex991.htm) | [Press Release dated February 17, 2026.](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/891103/000089110326000022/mtch8-k20260217ex991.htm) 104 | Inline XBRL for the cover pa...
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.1
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
42 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.02Resistance $38.94

Price Targets

$34
$37
A.Upside+4.5%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.6:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTCH stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $35.35, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.5%; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $36.95 (+4.5%), stop $33.97 (−4.1%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MTCH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $36.95 (+4.5% upside). Target $36.95 (+4.5%), stop $33.97 (−4.1%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Stop-loss: $33.97.

What are the risks of investing in MTCH?

Thin upside margin: 4.5%; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is MTCH overvalued or undervalued?

Match Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.7 (forward 8.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MTCH?

27 analysts cover MTCH with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $41.

What does Match Group, Inc. do?Match Group, Inc., through its portfolio companies, is a leading provider of digital technologies designed...

Match Group, Inc., through its portfolio companies, is a leading provider of digital technologies designed to

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