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Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Internet Content & Information

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $37.34 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.7% away).

Match Group, Inc., through its portfolio companies, is a leading provider of digital technologies designed to

$37.34-1.7% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#5 of 27 Internet Content & Information
Stop $35.42Target $36.70(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$36.24-3.0%17 analysts
$36.70our TP
$37.34price
$36.24mean
$30
$49

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $37.34 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.7% away). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 86. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.7% away)
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.5
P/E (Fwd)9.2
Mkt Cap$8.7B
EV/EBITDA11.1
Profit Mgn17.6%
ROE
Rev Growth2.1%
Beta1.30
Dividend2.08%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C5.95bearish
IV68%elevated
Max Pain$23-39.7% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-05Item 5.02MEDIUM
    MATCH GROUP, INC. | | | By: | /s/ Sean Edgett | | Sean Edgett | | Chief Legal Officer and Secretary Date: March 5, 2026
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Exhibit Number | Description [99.1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/891103/000089110326000022/mtch8-k20260217ex991.htm) | [Press Release dated February 17, 2026.](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/891103/000089110326000022/mtch8-k20260217ex991.htm) 104 | Inline XBRL for the cover pa...
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.2
Bollinger
1.8
52w Position
9.4
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
86 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $30.45Resistance $37.45

Price Targets

$35
$37
A.Upside-1.7%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.7% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTCH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $37.34 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.7% away). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 86. Prior stop was $35.42. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MTCH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $36.70 (-1.7% upside). Prior stop was $35.42. Stop-loss: $35.42.

What are the risks of investing in MTCH?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.7% away); Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Is MTCH overvalued or undervalued?

Match Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.5 (forward 9.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MTCH?

27 analysts cover MTCH with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $36.

What does Match Group, Inc. do?Match Group, Inc., through its portfolio companies, is a leading provider of digital technologies designed...

Match Group, Inc., through its portfolio companies, is a leading provider of digital technologies designed to

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