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BFCBank First CorporationSell6.5·$151.80-0.78%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Exceptional revenue growth of 49% year-over-year, best-in-class margins for its industry peer group, and strong price momentum with a golden cross and all moving averages aligned combine to form a compelling fundamental and technical picture; however, the price has closed to within 0.7% of the near-term resistance target with an unfavorable risk/reward, and the most recent quarter was a miss, leaving little room for error at the current entry point.

Thesis pillars

  • Price At Resistance Limited UpsideStable
  • Exceptional Revenue Growth TrajectoryStable
  • Strong Technical Momentum Golden CrossStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Bank First Corporation (BFC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $151.80 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (74.1%).

Bank First Corporation is the Wisconsin-based holding company for Bank First, N.A., a national bank operating 38 offices across 18 Wisconsin counties and one Illinois county, regulated by the OCC. The bank reported $4.51 billion in total assets, $3.60 billion in total loans, and... Read more

$151.80-0.4% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#26 of 225 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.28%(5y avg 1.32%)Payout25.73%sustainable
Stop $143.84Target $151.20(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$161.00+6.1%2 analysts
$151.20our TP
$151.80price
$161.00mean
$165

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $151.80 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (74.1%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 18d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — Bank First Corporation

Generated 2026-07-06T05:40:26Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 21, 202618d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (74.1%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.6% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.1
P/E (Fwd)12.6
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn37.8%
ROE10.0%
Rev Growth49.1%
Beta0.41
Dividend1.28%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfolioreal estate loans74%
    10-K Item 1: 'loans secured by real estate made up approximately $2.67 billion, or 74.1%, of our loan portfolio'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial real estate loans49%
    10-K Item 1: 'commercial real estate loans made up approximately $1.78 billion or 49.3% of our loan portfolio'
  • MEDIUMGeographicWisconsin and Illinois
    10-K Item 1A: 'a significant majority of our loans and deposits are made to borrowers or received from depositors who live and/or primarily conduct business in Wisconsin and Illinois'
  • MEDIUMregulatoryOCC
    10-K Item 1: 'the Bank is a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (the “Federal Reserve”) and regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (the “OCC”)'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-23Item 5.02LOW
    Bank First Corporation elected three new directors — SriRaj Kantamneni, Tracy C. Pearson, and William J. Ring — to three-year terms effective June 16, 2026. Routine board expansion; no departure involved.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-06-18Item 5.02LOW
    Effective June 15, 2026, director Stephen E. Johnson retired from the Board; new directors Steven M. Eldred and Todd A. Sprang were elected, and incumbent director Timothy J. McFarlane was re-elected to a second term. Routine board change; no reason cited for Johnson's retirement.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-06-18Item 5.07LOW
    Bank First Corporation's 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders held June 15, 2026: shareholders elected three director nominees and ratified Forvis Mazars, LLP as independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal 2026. Routine vote results.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.1
Support Resistance
1.5
52w Position
9.7

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
1.1
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MDividend: 128.0%
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 18d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $137.20Resistance $154.29

Price Targets

$144
$151
A.Upside-0.4%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.8% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (18d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BFC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $151.80 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (74.1%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $143.84. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BFC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $151.20 (-0.4% upside). Prior stop was $143.84. Stop-loss: $143.84.

What are the risks of investing in BFC?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate loans (74.1%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.6% away).

Is BFC overvalued or undervalued?

Bank First Corporation trades at a P/E of 21.1 (forward 12.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BFC?

6 analysts cover BFC with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $161.

What does Bank First Corporation do?Bank First Corporation is the Wisconsin-based holding company for Bank First, N.A., a national bank operating 38...

Bank First Corporation is the Wisconsin-based holding company for Bank First, N.A., a national bank operating 38 offices across 18 Wisconsin counties and one Illinois county, regulated by the OCC. The bank reported $4.51 billion in total assets, $3.60 billion in total loans, and $3.70 billion in deposits as of December 31, 2025, serving businesses, professionals, and consumers through retail and commercial banking with approximately 380 employees. Real estate-secured loans make up 74.1% of the loan portfolio, with commercial real estate the largest single segment at 49.3%.

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