Value
7.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.4 |
| P/S | 5.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.44
- ▸Attractively valued
BFC · Why this verdict
Why Bank First (BFC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Exceptional revenue growth of 49% year-over-year, best-in-class margins for its industry peer group, and strong price momentum with a golden cross and all moving averages aligned combine to form a compelling fundamental and technical picture; however, the price has closed to within 0.7% of the near-term resistance target with an unfavorable risk/reward, and the most recent quarter was a miss, leaving little room for error at the current entry point.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At $142.93 against a resistance target of $143.90, the stock has only 0.7% of headroom remaining with an unfavorable risk/reward of 0.12 — the asymmetry gate has failed with a negative ratio — meaning the current price level offers no meaningful reward for incremental risk in a new position. Price targets | Price closes more than 5% above the current take-profit level of $143.90 for 2 consecutive weeks, confirming that the resistance has been broken and new upside has opened. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong underlying growth and momentum can push price through technical resistance targets, particularly when the fundamental growth rate is as high as 49% — resistance levels are not hard ceilings in a strong fundamental environment. | ||
Revenue growing at 49% year-over-year with best-in-class margins and peer-group-leading growth rank places this bank among the fastest-growing operators in its regional peer set — a rate of expansion that, if sustained, justifies the current forward P/E of 11.9 times and a PEG of 0.18. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 20% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive quarters over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGrowth at this rate in a regional bank often reflects one-time acquisition-driven revenue rather than organic expansion; if consolidation synergies fade or loan growth normalizes, the top-line trajectory can decelerate sharply without warning. | ||
A golden cross has formed, the stock is above its 200-day moving average, MACD is bullish, and on-balance volume is rising — a technically aligned setup where short-term and long-term trend indicators all confirm the same direction, reducing the probability of an imminent trend reversal. Momentum breakdown | Price stays above the 200-day moving average for at least 2 consecutive months while momentum score remains above 6.0. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe stock is already near its 52-week high and sitting within 1% of the resistance target, meaning the technically aligned setup has already largely played out and there is limited additional price appreciation implied by the current pattern. | ||
The most recent quarterly report missed consensus by 18.54% after two prior beats, introducing uncertainty about whether the strong revenue growth is translating consistently to the bottom line — a single large miss after a streak of beats often signals an estimate revision cycle where analysts reset expectations downward. Earnings | EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarterly reports, confirming the miss was isolated rather than the start of a delivery trend. | ↑Improving |
| CounterTwo of the four trailing quarters were beats, including consecutive beats in the middle of the streak, and average surprise across all four periods is only modestly negative; one large miss does not necessarily define the trajectory. | ||
At $142.93 against a resistance target of $143.90, the stock has only 0.7% of headroom remaining with an unfavorable risk/reward of 0.12 — the asymmetry gate has failed with a negative ratio — meaning the current price level offers no meaningful reward for incremental risk in a new position.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price closes more than 5% above the current take-profit level of $143.90 for 2 consecutive weeks, confirming that the resistance has been broken and new upside has opened.
CounterStrong underlying growth and momentum can push price through technical resistance targets, particularly when the fundamental growth rate is as high as 49% — resistance levels are not hard ceilings in a strong fundamental environment.
Revenue growing at 49% year-over-year with best-in-class margins and peer-group-leading growth rank places this bank among the fastest-growing operators in its regional peer set — a rate of expansion that, if sustained, justifies the current forward P/E of 11.9 times and a PEG of 0.18.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 20% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive quarters over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth at this rate in a regional bank often reflects one-time acquisition-driven revenue rather than organic expansion; if consolidation synergies fade or loan growth normalizes, the top-line trajectory can decelerate sharply without warning.
A golden cross has formed, the stock is above its 200-day moving average, MACD is bullish, and on-balance volume is rising — a technically aligned setup where short-term and long-term trend indicators all confirm the same direction, reducing the probability of an imminent trend reversal.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price stays above the 200-day moving average for at least 2 consecutive months while momentum score remains above 6.0.
CounterThe stock is already near its 52-week high and sitting within 1% of the resistance target, meaning the technically aligned setup has already largely played out and there is limited additional price appreciation implied by the current pattern.
The most recent quarterly report missed consensus by 18.54% after two prior beats, introducing uncertainty about whether the strong revenue growth is translating consistently to the bottom line — a single large miss after a streak of beats often signals an estimate revision cycle where analysts reset expectations downward.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarterly reports, confirming the miss was isolated rather than the start of a delivery trend.
CounterTwo of the four trailing quarters were beats, including consecutive beats in the middle of the streak, and average surprise across all four periods is only modestly negative; one large miss does not necessarily define the trajectory.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.8 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 37%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 7.9 |
- ▸Strong growth: 57% YoY
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 4.6 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 4.5 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.2 |
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 6.4 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.7 |
| quality rank | 7.1 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.6 |
| support resistance | 4.2 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 4.7 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 3 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.5 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:89d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.12
Upside
-7.2%
Downside
6.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 8.9; weakest: Momentum at 4.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.9, Value at 7.9, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 4.1, Catalyst at 5.4, and Quality at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Revenue Growth Trajectory
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Technical Momentum Golden Cross
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive trading days.
- P3Price At Resistance Limited Upside
Trip ifPrice closes more than 5% above the current take-profit level of $143.90 for 2 consecutive weeks.
- P4Recent Earnings Miss Execution Risk
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarterly reports.