Value
7.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 8.4 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.76
- ▸Attractively valued
BC · Why this verdict
Why Brunswick (BC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality is assessed at 2.5 — below the minimum investment floor of 4.0 — with no competitive moat identified and quality concerns flagged across return and margin dimensions; the stock does not clear the baseline reliability standard regardless of how compelling the earnings beat streak appears on the surface. Quality | Quality score improves above 4.0 over the next 12 months, driven by recovering operating margins and demonstrable moat development in the recreational vehicle and marine markets. | →Stable |
| CounterIn a cyclical industry, quality metrics trough at cycle lows and can recover rapidly; if recreational vehicle and marine demand turns, margin expansion could lift the quality profile in a way the current depressed assessment does not reflect. | ||
The company has beaten EPS estimates in all four of the last four quarters, with the most recent quarter delivering a 54% positive surprise and the four-quarter average exceeding 22% — a pattern more consistent with consistently under-promising and over-delivering than with any single quarter of favorable timing. Earnings | A fifth consecutive positive EPS surprise above 5% extends the pattern, confirming that guidance discipline is structural rather than a recovery-period anomaly. | →Stable |
| CounterVery large positive surprises in cyclical companies often reflect difficult-to-model cost timing or working capital; a single quarter without that tailwind could snap the streak, and the 54% most-recent beat may have pulled forward future outperformance in a way that raises the bar for the next print. | ||
The most recent annual filing identified one high-severity and two medium-severity supply concentration risks, citing sole or limited-source components — a structural fragility that could disrupt production if any of these critical supply relationships is interrupted unexpectedly. Risk | The high-severity concentration risk is resolved in the next annual disclosure, with sole-source supply dependencies reduced to zero high-rated items. | →Stable |
| CounterSupplier concentration risks in specialized manufacturing are often overstated in standardized disclosures; many such arrangements persist for years without incident, and the company may have contractual protections or qualified secondary sources that the boilerplate language does not fully convey. | ||
The stock is within 2.3% of the near-term resistance target of $84.06, with the risk/reward ratio at 0.33 — meaning potential downside outweighs available upside by roughly three to one — and the asymmetry gate has failed; any positive earnings developments appear already reflected in the current price. Price targets | The stock corrects below $72.00, restoring at least 16% upside to the $84.06 resistance level and creating a favorable risk/reward ratio for re-entry. | →Stable |
| CounterA stock with four consecutive earnings beats and positive analyst sentiment can break above near-term technical resistance; if the next quarter again delivers a large positive surprise, the $84.06 resistance may become a new floor and a higher target could be established. | ||
Business quality is assessed at 2.5 — below the minimum investment floor of 4.0 — with no competitive moat identified and quality concerns flagged across return and margin dimensions; the stock does not clear the baseline reliability standard regardless of how compelling the earnings beat streak appears on the surface.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Quality score improves above 4.0 over the next 12 months, driven by recovering operating margins and demonstrable moat development in the recreational vehicle and marine markets.
CounterIn a cyclical industry, quality metrics trough at cycle lows and can recover rapidly; if recreational vehicle and marine demand turns, margin expansion could lift the quality profile in a way the current depressed assessment does not reflect.
The company has beaten EPS estimates in all four of the last four quarters, with the most recent quarter delivering a 54% positive surprise and the four-quarter average exceeding 22% — a pattern more consistent with consistently under-promising and over-delivering than with any single quarter of favorable timing.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- A fifth consecutive positive EPS surprise above 5% extends the pattern, confirming that guidance discipline is structural rather than a recovery-period anomaly.
CounterVery large positive surprises in cyclical companies often reflect difficult-to-model cost timing or working capital; a single quarter without that tailwind could snap the streak, and the 54% most-recent beat may have pulled forward future outperformance in a way that raises the bar for the next print.
The most recent annual filing identified one high-severity and two medium-severity supply concentration risks, citing sole or limited-source components — a structural fragility that could disrupt production if any of these critical supply relationships is interrupted unexpectedly.
→StableRisk
- Expectation
- The high-severity concentration risk is resolved in the next annual disclosure, with sole-source supply dependencies reduced to zero high-rated items.
CounterSupplier concentration risks in specialized manufacturing are often overstated in standardized disclosures; many such arrangements persist for years without incident, and the company may have contractual protections or qualified secondary sources that the boilerplate language does not fully convey.
The stock is within 2.3% of the near-term resistance target of $84.06, with the risk/reward ratio at 0.33 — meaning potential downside outweighs available upside by roughly three to one — and the asymmetry gate has failed; any positive earnings developments appear already reflected in the current price.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The stock corrects below $72.00, restoring at least 16% upside to the $84.06 resistance level and creating a favorable risk/reward ratio for re-entry.
CounterA stock with four consecutive earnings beats and positive analyst sentiment can break above near-term technical resistance; if the next quarter again delivers a large positive surprise, the $84.06 resistance may become a new floor and a higher target could be established.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Brunswick Corporation has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average positive surprise exceeding 22%, but below-minimum business quality, a high-severity supplier concentration risk, and a near-term price target already reached combine to make the current setup unattractive despite the strong earnings execution.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.3 |
| Gross margin | 1.2 |
| Op margin | 1.6 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.1 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.7 |
| EPS growth | 3.3 |
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
| erm sentiment | 4.7 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,164,297 (0.042% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.0 |
| quality rank | 1.0 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
Technical
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.6 |
| support resistance | 9.1 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| volatility | 2.9 |
| put call | 5.2 |
| implied vol | 3.8 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 4.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:20d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.33
Upside
+2.5%
Downside
7.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 20d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.32>1.3
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Technical at 8.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.5, Value at 7.2, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Quality at 2.5, Momentum at 2.7, and Peer rank at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.33 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Minimum Threshold
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 for 2 consecutive assessment periods.
- P2Consistent Beats Signal Conservative Guidance
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in any single reported quarter, ending the consecutive beat streak.
- P3High Severity Supplier Concentration Risk
Trip ifDisclosed high-severity supply concentration items fall below 1 in the following annual 10-K filing, confirming the structural supply fragility has been resolved.
- P4Price Target Reached Upside Exhausted
Trip ifStock corrects below $72.00, restoring at least 16% upside to the $84.06 resistance level.