Value
9.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.9 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 5.9 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.27
- ▸Attractively valued
BBD · Why this verdict
Why Banco Bradesco (BBD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Banco Bradesco trades at a forward P/E of 5.3x with a 9.1% dividend and heavy insider buying of $96.9M, giving 49.1% upside to the analyst target, but momentum is 1.9/10 after a 44% drawdown.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Forward P/E of 5.3x with a PEG of 1.27 and a 9.1% dividend rated 8.0 for safety make Bradesco attractively valued with strong income. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 8x and the dividend yield above 7% over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA 9.1% yield after a 44% drawdown can signal market doubts about the sustainability of earnings and payout. | ||
Insiders bought $99.5M against $2.6M of sales over 90 days, a net $96.9M (0.340% of market cap) across 51 buys and 9 sells, marked bullish. Insider breakdown | Insider net buying should stay positive over the next two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLarge controlling shareholders may buy for strategic reasons unrelated to near-term price direction. | ||
Upside to the $3.80 analyst target is 49.1% against 15.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 3.28 at $2.55. Upside pct | Price should move toward the analyst target within 12 months without breaching the $2.46 stop. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light and a 71% upside before haircut suggests targets may be stale after the sell-off. | ||
Momentum is 1.9/10 with RSI at 12 flagged as capitulation risk and falling OBV, though the 200-day average is still rising 1.8% per 30 days. Momentum breakdown | Price should stabilize and momentum rise above 4.5 within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling OBV with MACD near zero shows distribution is still under way, and the 52-week position is near the low. | ||
Margins are strong at 27% and growth is solid with earnings growth at 8.7, but quality is only 5.1/10 with ROA scoring 0.7. Quality breakdown | Margins should stay above 22% and quality should stay above 5.0 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA low-quality RISK_OFF penalty applies and a Piotroski F-Score of 4.4 shows mediocre balance-sheet momentum. | ||
Forward P/E of 5.3x with a PEG of 1.27 and a 9.1% dividend rated 8.0 for safety make Bradesco attractively valued with strong income.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 8x and the dividend yield above 7% over the next 12 months.
CounterA 9.1% yield after a 44% drawdown can signal market doubts about the sustainability of earnings and payout.
Insiders bought $99.5M against $2.6M of sales over 90 days, a net $96.9M (0.340% of market cap) across 51 buys and 9 sells, marked bullish.
↑ImprovingInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider net buying should stay positive over the next two quarters.
CounterLarge controlling shareholders may buy for strategic reasons unrelated to near-term price direction.
Upside to the $3.80 analyst target is 49.1% against 15.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 3.28 at $2.55.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the analyst target within 12 months without breaching the $2.46 stop.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light and a 71% upside before haircut suggests targets may be stale after the sell-off.
Momentum is 1.9/10 with RSI at 12 flagged as capitulation risk and falling OBV, though the 200-day average is still rising 1.8% per 30 days.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should stabilize and momentum rise above 4.5 within 12 months.
CounterFalling OBV with MACD near zero shows distribution is still under way, and the 52-week position is near the low.
Margins are strong at 27% and growth is solid with earnings growth at 8.7, but quality is only 5.1/10 with ROA scoring 0.7.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should stay above 22% and quality should stay above 5.0 over 12 months.
CounterA low-quality RISK_OFF penalty applies and a Piotroski F-Score of 4.4 shows mediocre balance-sheet momentum.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 27%
Growth
7.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.6 |
| EPS growth | 8.7 |
Momentum
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 4.3 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 12, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 2.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 73%
- ▸Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-5.3%)
Insider
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 7.1 |
| holder change | 8.2 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $96,861,970 (0.351% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.6 |
| quality rank | 5.2 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.0 |
| support resistance | 9.9 |
| 52w position | 0.9 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 10.50
- ▸High IV: 88%
- ▸Above max pain $0
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 2.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.3 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -5.3% (30d)
- ▸Dividend: 9.4%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:92d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.2<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.35
Upside
+50.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -46% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:3.4>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 9.0; weakest: Momentum at 2.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Insider at 7.6, and Growth at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 2.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.7, and Quality at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.35 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value High Dividend
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 9x from current 5.3x.
- P2Large Insider Buying
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $10M over a 90-day window.
- P3Analyst Upside And Asymmetry
Trip ifUpside to analyst target drops below 20% from current 49.1%.
- P4Capitulation Momentum Weakness
Trip ifPrice falls below the $2.46 stop, more than 3.5% under the current $2.55.
- P5Strong Margins Moderate Quality
Trip ifMargins fall below 20% from current 27%.