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BBARBanco BBVA Argentina S.A.Sell4.8·$19.45+0.52%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Four consecutive quarterly earnings misses—the most recent a shortfall of -74%—combined with business quality below the minimum threshold and a stock price that has reached its analyst target with only 1.4% remaining upside argue against initiating a new position at current levels; improved earnings execution and a pullback to a more favorable entry point would be needed to reopen the thesis.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Minimum ThresholdStable
  • Persistent Earnings Miss PatternStable
  • Price At Target No UpsideStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. (BBAR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.45: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. provides banking products and services in Argentina. The company offers retail banking products and services, such as checking and savings accounts, time deposits, credit card financing, consumer and pledge loans, mortgages, insurance, and investment... Read more

$19.45+16.6% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#220 of 225 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.00%(5y avg 5.87%)Payout23.73%sustainable
Stop $18.09Target $22.67(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$26.67+37.1%3 analysts
$22.67our TP
$19.45price
$26.67mean
$29

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.45: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — Banco BBVA Argentina S.A.

Generated 2026-07-06T05:51:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 24, 202652d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.7
P/E (Fwd)16.4
Mkt Cap$4.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn7.1%
ROE7.1%
Rev Growth0.8%
Beta0.03
Dividend2.00%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.70bullish
IV70%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Roa
0.8
Roe
2.4
Net Margin
3.6
Moat
4.2
Piotroski F
4.4
Operating Margin
5.8
No competitive moat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MDividend: 200.0%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.9
Quality Rank
0.9
Value Rank
5.6

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.3
Rsi
5.5
Obv
5.8
Ma Position
6.0
Above 200-day MA

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.7
Earnings Growth
4.8
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 52d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $17.17Resistance $22.46

Price Targets

$18
$23
A.Upside+16.6%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-24 (52d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BBAR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.45: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $18.09. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BBAR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.67 (+16.6% upside). Prior stop was $18.09. Stop-loss: $18.09.

What are the risks of investing in BBAR?

Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0).

Is BBAR overvalued or undervalued?

Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. trades at a P/E of 18.7 (forward 16.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BBAR?

11 analysts cover BBAR with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $27.

What does Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. do?Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. provides banking products and services in Argentina. The company offers retail banking...

Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. provides banking products and services in Argentina. The company offers retail banking products and services, such as checking and savings accounts, time deposits, credit card financing, consumer and pledge loans, mortgages, insurance, and investment products to individuals; and financing products, factoring, checking accounts, time deposits, transactional and payroll services, insurance, and investment products to private-sector companies and small and medium-sized enterprises. It also provides corporate and investment banking products and services, including global transaction services; global markets solutions comprising risk management and securities brokerage; project finance and syndicated loans; and corporate finance services consisting of mergers and acquisitions and capital markets advisory services to corporations and multinational companies. In addition, the company provides foreign trade and asset management services, as well as credit and debit cards. The company was formerly known as BBVA Banco Francés S.A. and changed its name to Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. in November 2019. The company was incorporated in 1886 and is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

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