Value
9.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.22
- ▸Attractively valued
BBAR · Why this verdict
Why Banco BBVA Argentina (BBAR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Banco BBVA Argentina is deeply discounted (forward P/E 15.8x, PEG 0.22) with 68.4% upside to the analyst target after a 48% drawdown, but quality is 3.5/10, the stock is in a confirmed downtrend and EPS missed in 3 of the last 4 quarters.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is 3.5/10 with no competitive moat, ROE of 2.7 and ROA of 0.8 component scores, though the dividend is 3.7% and rated safe at 9.0. Quality breakdown | ROE component should rise above 4.0 and quality above 4.0 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 3.7% dividend rated 9.0 for safety suggests earnings coverage is stronger than the quality score implies. | ||
Price of $11.61 sits 68.4% below the $19.55 analyst target against 10.4% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 6.58. Upside pct | Price should move materially toward the analyst target within 12 months without breaching the $11.06 stop. | →Stable |
| CounterA 98% analyst upside before haircut is a sign of high perceived risk, and targets for an emerging-market bank can be cut fast on macro shocks. | ||
Momentum is 2.0/10 with the price below its 200-day average, a 30-day slope of -4.1% and falling OBV showing volume distribution, alongside a death cross. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day average and momentum should rise above 4.5 within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBollinger and support/resistance scores of 10.0 and 9.1 show the stock is deeply stretched to the downside, which often precedes a rebound. | ||
EPS missed in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.27 against $1.05 expected in May 2026, an average surprise of -35%. Last 4 quarters | EPS should meet or beat estimates in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe latest quarter beat by 17% ($0.41 versus $0.35) and earnings growth scores 10/10, so the trend may be turning. | ||
Forward P/E of 15.8x with a PEG of 0.22 is attractively valued against earnings growth scoring 10.0/10. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth should keep the PEG below 1.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterArgentine inflation distorts reported earnings, so low PEG ratios can reflect unsustainable nominal growth. | ||
Quality is 3.5/10 with no competitive moat, ROE of 2.7 and ROA of 0.8 component scores, though the dividend is 3.7% and rated safe at 9.0.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE component should rise above 4.0 and quality above 4.0 within 12 months.
CounterA 3.7% dividend rated 9.0 for safety suggests earnings coverage is stronger than the quality score implies.
Price of $11.61 sits 68.4% below the $19.55 analyst target against 10.4% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 6.58.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should move materially toward the analyst target within 12 months without breaching the $11.06 stop.
CounterA 98% analyst upside before haircut is a sign of high perceived risk, and targets for an emerging-market bank can be cut fast on macro shocks.
Momentum is 2.0/10 with the price below its 200-day average, a 30-day slope of -4.1% and falling OBV showing volume distribution, alongside a death cross.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day average and momentum should rise above 4.5 within 12 months.
CounterBollinger and support/resistance scores of 10.0 and 9.1 show the stock is deeply stretched to the downside, which often precedes a rebound.
EPS missed in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.27 against $1.05 expected in May 2026, an average surprise of -35%.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat estimates in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters.
CounterThe latest quarter beat by 17% ($0.41 versus $0.35) and earnings growth scores 10/10, so the trend may be turning.
Forward P/E of 15.8x with a PEG of 0.22 is attractively valued against earnings growth scoring 10.0/10.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should keep the PEG below 1.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterArgentine inflation distorts reported earnings, so low PEG ratios can reflect unsustainable nominal growth.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.7 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 7.6 |
| Net margin | 4.3 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 2.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 103%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.7 |
| quality rank | 0.8 |
| growth rank | 3.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.8 |
| support resistance | 9.0 |
| 52w position | 0.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.82
- ▸High IV: 75%
Catalyst
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 3.8%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:6.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:21d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
6.73
Upside
+72.2%
Downside
10.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -49% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.7<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.2 and asymmetric R:R of 6.73.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.2, Growth at 6.9, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Quality at 3.5, Momentum at 3.7, and Catalyst at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Large Analyst Upside
Trip ifUpside to analyst target drops below 30% from current 68.4%.
- P2Confirmed Downtrend Death Cross
Trip ifPrice falls below the $11.06 stop, more than 4.7% under the current $11.61.
- P3Recurring Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters.
- P4Cheap Valuation High Growth
Trip ifPEG ratio exceeds 1.0 from current 0.22.
- P5Weak Quality No Moat
Trip ifQuality score falls below 3.0 from current 3.5.