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BBAIBigBear.ai, Inc.Sell4.8·$2.35

BigBear.ai (BBAI) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage

MISS · WIDER LOSS-245.4% vs estimateEPS -$0.19 vs -$0.05 estCurrent verdict Sell 4.8/10

Reported

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy

Event detail · Q3 2026

Key numbers

Adjusted EPS
-$0.19
Estimate
-$0.05
Surprise
-245.4%
Score today
4.8/10

Revenue for this quarter isn’t shown: the reported figure hasn’t cleared TrendMatrix’s freshness and sanity checks yet, and consensus revenue isn’t tracked. EPS above is the available figure.

Report record · Q3 2026

How the report landed

BigBear.ai (BBAI) reported a wider loss than forecast — adjusted EPS of -$0.19 against the -$0.05 estimate (a 245.4% shortfall).

Around the report

Coverage in the report window

  • Cantor Fitzgerald Maintains Neutral on BigBear.ai Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $3 — benzinga, 2026-10-28
  • ‘Far Fewer Resources, Far Less Time:' BBAI CEO Warns AI Is Supercharging Attackers, Pitches Private Sector to Help Gover — benzinga, 2026-10-28
  • BigBear.ai Reports Q3 2026 Financial Results and Raises Full-Year Revenue Guidance — fiscal.ai, 2026-10-27
Current read · as of 2026-10-28

Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now

TrendMatrix currently rates BBAI Sell at 4.8/10; no pre/post engine snapshot brackets this report.

1 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's -245.4% surprise compares with a -55.8% four-quarter average.

What argues against it

  • Concentration risk — Customer: customers contributing in excess of 10% of revenues (51.0%)
  • Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)

This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.

Current engine read

The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks

Current price
$2.35
Price target
$3.40
Stop
$2.19
Upside to target
+44.7%
Reward-to-risk
3.4:1

Risk check: trading volume is running 2.2× its average — elevated turnover around the report window.

Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-10-28 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.

Technology context

BBAI at TrendMatrix's latest read

Technology names get repriced on forward expectations more than trailing prints — a quarter here is read through next-year growth and multiple, not the EPS line alone.

Industry
Information Technology Services
Market cap
$1.13B
P/E (fwd)
-11.7
52-week range
$2.07–$7.40
Off 52-week high
68.2%
RSI (14)
44
Volume vs avg
2.23×
Score today
4.8/10

EPS and the estimate come from Yahoo Finance’s earnings calendar, captured around the report date. That EPS is the adjusted figure analysts forecast, so it can differ from the GAAP diluted EPS in the company’s filing, and consensus estimates vary between data providers. Revenue comes from SEC XBRL company facts where available, yfinance-provisional otherwise. Not a buy/sell rating, a price target, or investment advice — see the current verdict on the stock’s main page for TrendMatrix’s live read.

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