Value
7.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 8.7 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.72
- ▸Attractively valued
BAP · Why this verdict
Why Credicorp (BAP) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Credicorp combines 26% year-over-year revenue growth, 33% margins, and industry-leading peer rankings on both growth and return on equity, at a forward price-to-earnings of 10.9x with a PEG ratio of 0.68 — but the stock sits just 1.9% below near-term resistance, limiting immediate upside for new capital even as the fundamental setup remains constructive for existing holders.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 26% year-over-year, placing the company at the top of its peer group in growth leadership, while margins of 33% demonstrate that the expansion is producing earnings rather than merely revenue volume. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year in each of the next two reported quarters while margins stay above 30%. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings history shows one miss out of four quarters — a negative surprise of 8.1% in the second-most-recent period — indicating growth can be uneven quarter to quarter and the trend is not uniformly smooth. | ||
The company ranks above regional financial peers on return on equity and in the top tier on growth metrics per peer-comparison data, suggesting it is gaining competitive ground and allocating capital more productively than the peer average. Peer-rank breakdown | Peer-relative return on equity and growth rankings remain in the upper quartile over the next 12 months as the growth thesis plays out. | →Stable |
| CounterPeer-relative leadership in a regional financial context is sensitive to local credit conditions; any material deterioration in asset quality could erode the return-on-equity advantage and close the gap with peers quickly. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings of 10.9x paired with a PEG ratio of 0.68 implies the stock is priced below its growth rate — a combination that historically offers re-rating potential if earnings execution continues. Valuation breakdown | PEG ratio stays below 1.0 while forward earnings estimates are revised upward over the next 12 months, confirming the valuation discount is sustained rather than eroded. | →Stable |
| CounterA low forward multiple is common for regional financial institutions in their home market and may reflect sovereign or currency risk embedded in the price rather than investor neglect of the underlying growth profile. | ||
The stock has formed a golden cross, trades above all major moving averages with RSI at a neutral 55, and shows rising on-balance volume — a configuration pointing to sustained accumulation rather than speculative positioning. Momentum breakdown | Price remains above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume stays in a rising trend for the next six months, confirming the uptrend. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAt 92% of its 52-week range, the stock is close to multi-period highs; technical momentum setups at these levels carry elevated fade risk as the stock approaches resistance with limited room to extend. | ||
With just 1.9% remaining between the current price and the near-term resistance target, most of the setup's geometric upside has already been captured, making the current price more appropriate for existing holders maintaining their position than for new capital seeking a favorable entry. Price targets | If the setup has fully priced in current fundamentals, price consolidates near resistance until a new fundamental catalyst justifies a higher take-profit level. | →Stable |
| CounterThe risk/reward of 1.94-to-1 meets the minimum asymmetry threshold, meaning even the remaining 1.9% upside is geometrically adequate; a favorable earnings report in 58 days could push the stock through resistance and reset the ceiling higher. | ||
Revenue grew 26% year-over-year, placing the company at the top of its peer group in growth leadership, while margins of 33% demonstrate that the expansion is producing earnings rather than merely revenue volume.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year in each of the next two reported quarters while margins stay above 30%.
CounterEarnings history shows one miss out of four quarters — a negative surprise of 8.1% in the second-most-recent period — indicating growth can be uneven quarter to quarter and the trend is not uniformly smooth.
The company ranks above regional financial peers on return on equity and in the top tier on growth metrics per peer-comparison data, suggesting it is gaining competitive ground and allocating capital more productively than the peer average.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Peer-relative return on equity and growth rankings remain in the upper quartile over the next 12 months as the growth thesis plays out.
CounterPeer-relative leadership in a regional financial context is sensitive to local credit conditions; any material deterioration in asset quality could erode the return-on-equity advantage and close the gap with peers quickly.
A forward price-to-earnings of 10.9x paired with a PEG ratio of 0.68 implies the stock is priced below its growth rate — a combination that historically offers re-rating potential if earnings execution continues.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- PEG ratio stays below 1.0 while forward earnings estimates are revised upward over the next 12 months, confirming the valuation discount is sustained rather than eroded.
CounterA low forward multiple is common for regional financial institutions in their home market and may reflect sovereign or currency risk embedded in the price rather than investor neglect of the underlying growth profile.
The stock has formed a golden cross, trades above all major moving averages with RSI at a neutral 55, and shows rising on-balance volume — a configuration pointing to sustained accumulation rather than speculative positioning.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price remains above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume stays in a rising trend for the next six months, confirming the uptrend.
CounterAt 92% of its 52-week range, the stock is close to multi-period highs; technical momentum setups at these levels carry elevated fade risk as the stock approaches resistance with limited room to extend.
With just 1.9% remaining between the current price and the near-term resistance target, most of the setup's geometric upside has already been captured, making the current price more appropriate for existing holders maintaining their position than for new capital seeking a favorable entry.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- If the setup has fully priced in current fundamentals, price consolidates near resistance until a new fundamental catalyst justifies a higher take-profit level.
CounterThe risk/reward of 1.94-to-1 meets the minimum asymmetry threshold, meaning even the remaining 1.9% upside is geometrically adequate; a favorable earnings report in 58 days could push the stock through resistance and reset the ceiling higher.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.4 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
Growth
7.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.9 |
| EPS growth | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
Insider
6.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $1,478,638 (0.005% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 8.0 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.7 |
| support resistance | 4.4 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.7 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 5.2 |
| beta | 8.0 |
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.3 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 3.7%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:24d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.95
Upside
-11.4%
Downside
5.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 24d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 7.6; weakest: Momentum at 4.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6, and Growth at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 4.9, Catalyst at 5.5, and Quality at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.95 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Industry Leading Growth Rate
Trip ifRevenue growth decelerates below 10% year-over-year for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P2Superior Peer Ranking
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters, dropping the company out of peer-relative leadership.
- P3Attractive Valuation Relative To Growth
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 16x without a corresponding increase in forward earnings estimates.
- P4Technical Momentum Setup
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for 5 consecutive sessions.
- P5Limited Headroom To Resistance
Trip ifUpside to the resistance target expands beyond 10%, indicating a meaningful pullback has created a favorable new entry point.