Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 6.2 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.19
- ▸Attractively valued
BAP · Why this verdict
Why Credicorp (BAP) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Credicorp is an attractively valued bank (forward P/E 10.2x, 4.1% dividend) with superior ROE versus peers, but momentum is 2.1/10 and upside to the analyst target is a symmetric 6.6% against 6.6% downside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Forward P/E of 10.2x, a PEG of 1.19 and a 4.1% dividend make Credicorp attractively valued with income support. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 12x and the dividend yield above 3.5% over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEarnings growth scores only 3.7, so the PEG above 1.0 shows the multiple is not especially cheap for the growth delivered. | ||
Margins are strong at 33% and ROE ranks superior versus peers, with a moat component of 6.5. Peer-rank breakdown | Margins should stay above 28% and the peer quality rank above 7 over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterROA scores only 1.9 and Piotroski F-Score 4.4, so balance-sheet strength is mediocre. | ||
The price is oversold (RSI 27, capitulation risk) and below the 200-day average, but that average is still rising 4.7% per 30 days, a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day average and RSI recover above 40 within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling OBV shows volume distribution and MACD is at 0, so selling pressure may not be exhausted. | ||
Upside to the $371.91 analyst target is 6.6%, equal to the 6.6% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 1.0 at $348.96. Upside pct | Upside to target should rise above 10% through a pullback or higher targets over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst upside of 23% before haircut suggests the target could prove conservative if sentiment recovers. | ||
Implied volatility is 107%, a high level, even though the put/call ratio of 0.51 is low. Risk breakdown | Implied volatility should fall below 60% over the next 12 months as the sell-off settles. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh implied volatility may signal an upcoming catalyst, and call-heavy positioning could precede a rebound. | ||
Forward P/E of 10.2x, a PEG of 1.19 and a 4.1% dividend make Credicorp attractively valued with income support.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 12x and the dividend yield above 3.5% over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings growth scores only 3.7, so the PEG above 1.0 shows the multiple is not especially cheap for the growth delivered.
Margins are strong at 33% and ROE ranks superior versus peers, with a moat component of 6.5.
↑ImprovingPeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should stay above 28% and the peer quality rank above 7 over 12 months.
CounterROA scores only 1.9 and Piotroski F-Score 4.4, so balance-sheet strength is mediocre.
The price is oversold (RSI 27, capitulation risk) and below the 200-day average, but that average is still rising 4.7% per 30 days, a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day average and RSI recover above 40 within 12 months.
CounterFalling OBV shows volume distribution and MACD is at 0, so selling pressure may not be exhausted.
Upside to the $371.91 analyst target is 6.6%, equal to the 6.6% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 1.0 at $348.96.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Upside to target should rise above 10% through a pullback or higher targets over 12 months.
CounterAnalyst upside of 23% before haircut suggests the target could prove conservative if sentiment recovers.
Implied volatility is 107%, a high level, even though the put/call ratio of 0.51 is low.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Implied volatility should fall below 60% over the next 12 months as the sell-off settles.
CounterHigh implied volatility may signal an upcoming catalyst, and call-heavy positioning could precede a rebound.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.8 |
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
Growth
4.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 3.7 |
Momentum
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 3.2 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
5.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 7.9 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.3 |
| support resistance | 8.8 |
| 52w position | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 4.5 |
| put call | 9.6 |
| implied vol | 4.7 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 8.1 |
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
- ▸Dividend: 4.1%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.92
Upside
+5.9%
Downside
6.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Technical at 8.4; weakest: Momentum at 1.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.4, Value at 7.9, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 1.9, Growth at 4.6, and Catalyst at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.92 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation With Dividend
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 14x from current 10.2x.
- P2Superior Roe Strong Margins
Trip ifMargin falls below 25% from current 33%.
- P3Oversold Pullback In Uptrend
Trip ifPrice falls below the $336.14 stop, more than 3.7% under the current $348.96.
- P4Symmetric Reward To Risk
Trip ifUpside to analyst target drops below 3% from current 6.6%.
- P5Very High Implied Volatility
Trip ifImplied volatility stays above 100% for 3 more months.