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AXAxos Financial, Inc.Hold6.3·$89.84-0.48%
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Axos Financial, Inc. (AX) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $89.84, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Regulatory: OCC primary regulator; Thin upside margin: 6.7%.

Axos Financial runs a digital bank with $24.8 billion in assets and a securities custody business holding $39.4 billion at Axos Clearing. The Banking segment earns net interest income across mortgages, CRE, C&I and consumer loans; the Securities segment earns fees from clearing... Read more

$89.84+6.7% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#25 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
Stop $85.44Target $95.85(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$110.17+22.6%6 analysts
$95.85our TP
$89.84price
$110.17mean
$114

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $89.84, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Regulatory: OCC primary regulator; Thin upside margin: 6.7%. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Regulatory: OCC primary regulator
Thin upside margin: 6.7%
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.0
P/E (Fwd)9.3
Mkt Cap$5.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn36.0%
ROE16.8%
Rev Growth19.3%
Beta1.25
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C8.48bearish
IV62%elevated
Max Pain$70-22.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia and New York real estate loans
    10-K Item 1A: 'given our high concentration of loans secured by real estate in California and New York, the Company remains particularly susceptible to a downturn in those states' economies'
  • HIGHregulatoryOCC primary regulator
    10-K Item 1: 'subject to regulation, examination, and supervision by the OCC as its primary regulator and the FDIC as its deposit insurer'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $83.03Resistance $92.05

Price Targets

$85
$96
A.Upside+6.7%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.9 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $89.84, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Regulatory: OCC primary regulator; Thin upside margin: 6.7%. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $95.85 (+6.7%), stop $85.44 (−5.1%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $95.85 (+6.7% upside). Target $95.85 (+6.7%), stop $85.44 (−5.1%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Stop-loss: $85.44.

What are the risks of investing in AX?

Concentration risk — Regulatory: OCC primary regulator; Thin upside margin: 6.7%; Elevated risk factors.

Is AX overvalued or undervalued?

Axos Financial, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.0 (forward 9.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AX?

14 analysts cover AX with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $110.

What does Axos Financial, Inc. do?Axos Financial runs a digital bank with $24.8 billion in assets and a securities custody business holding $39.4 billion...

Axos Financial runs a digital bank with $24.8 billion in assets and a securities custody business holding $39.4 billion at Axos Clearing. The Banking segment earns net interest income across mortgages, CRE, C&I and consumer loans; the Securities segment earns fees from clearing and advisory services to 327 financial organizations. The deposit franchise spans commercial verticals, specialty deposits and brokerage sweeps.

Related stocks: CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · IFS (Intercorp Financial Services In) · SSB (SouthState Bank Corporation) · GABC (German American Bancorp, Inc.) · INTR (Inter & Co. Inc.)
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