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AVLNAvalyn Pharma Inc.Sell5.4·$29.89-0.93%
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Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $29.89: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 4.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Avalyn Pharma Inc. operates as a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing inhaled medicines to treat rare respiratory diseases, including pulmonary fibrosis and other interstitial lung diseases. The company provides inhaled formulations of oral medicines directly to... Read more

$29.89+68.7% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#64 of 258 Biotechnology
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
Stop $27.65Target $50.15(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 4.6:1
Analyst target$59.00+97.4%4 analysts
$50.15our TP
$29.89price
$59.00mean
$80

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $29.89: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 4.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Aug 14, 202641d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-15.6
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA-15.8
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE
Rev Growth
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts4

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings Timing
5.0

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.5
Quality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
5.0
Quality Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5A.R:R 4.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 41d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Speculative
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $25.70Resistance $33.32

Price Targets

$28
$50
A.Upside+67.8%
A.R:R4.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-14 (41d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AVLN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $29.89: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 4.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $27.65. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AVLN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.15 (+68.7% upside). Prior stop was $27.65. Stop-loss: $27.65.

What are the risks of investing in AVLN?

Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).

Is AVLN overvalued or undervalued?

Avalyn Pharma Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -15.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

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What does Avalyn Pharma Inc. do?Avalyn Pharma Inc. operates as a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing inhaled medicines to treat rare...

Avalyn Pharma Inc. operates as a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing inhaled medicines to treat rare respiratory diseases, including pulmonary fibrosis and other interstitial lung diseases. The company provides inhaled formulations of oral medicines directly to the lungs. Its current pipeline is focused on treating pulmonary fibrosis. Its products include AP01 and AP02, inhaled formulations of pirfenidone and nintedanib for the treatment of progressive pulmonary fibrosis and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis; and AP03, a fixed-dose combination of inhaled pirfenidone and nintedanib to deliver dual antifibrotic mechanisms. Avalyn Pharma Inc. was formerly known as Genoa Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and changed its name to Avalyn Pharma Inc. in July 2017. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Boston, Massachusetts.

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