Value
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.7 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.6 |
| PEG | 3.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.0x
- ▸PEG: 3.05
ATR · Why this verdict
Why AptarGroup (ATR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AptarGroup has beaten earnings four quarters in a row and carries solid quality (Piotroski 8/9) with strong momentum, but the price is within 2.9% of the analyst target and growth is weak, so reward-to-risk is only 0.21.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
AptarGroup has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 3.4%. Earnings track record | EPS continues to meet or beat estimates at the 2027-02-04 report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBeats are small (1.7% to 4.9%) and likely already priced in at a forward P/E of 22.2x. | ||
Upside to the $141.16 analyst target is only 2.9% from $137.20, against 13.7% downside, for a reward-to-risk of 0.21. Upside pct | Price needs analyst target upgrades or a pullback to restore an attractive reward-to-risk ratio. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCoverage is light (8 analysts) and targets often trail a rising stock, so upward revisions are plausible after the 3.3% beat. | ||
Financial quality is solid, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, a Dividend aristocrat record with a 1.5% yield, and dividend safety scoring 8.0. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or higher and the dividend continues to grow. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGrowth scores only 2.0 and earnings growth scores 0.0, so quality is not translating into earnings expansion. | ||
Supply chain risk is concentrated in single-source resins and rubber components. Bear case | No supply disruption forces a margin or delivery shortfall over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA supplier disruption or resin price spike could compress margins quickly with no alternative source. | ||
Momentum is strong at 8.4 with price above the 200-day average and rising on-balance volume, but RSI is 90, which is heavily overbought after a 6.1% gap up. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day average without a sharp retracement. | →Stable |
| CounterAn RSI of 90 and an extreme gap up often precede a pullback, and implied volatility of 112% shows how sharply the stock can move. | ||
AptarGroup has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 3.4%.
↓DeterioratingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- EPS continues to meet or beat estimates at the 2027-02-04 report.
CounterBeats are small (1.7% to 4.9%) and likely already priced in at a forward P/E of 22.2x.
Upside to the $141.16 analyst target is only 2.9% from $137.20, against 13.7% downside, for a reward-to-risk of 0.21.
Tripped↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price needs analyst target upgrades or a pullback to restore an attractive reward-to-risk ratio.
CounterCoverage is light (8 analysts) and targets often trail a rising stock, so upward revisions are plausible after the 3.3% beat.
Financial quality is solid, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, a Dividend aristocrat record with a 1.5% yield, and dividend safety scoring 8.0.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or higher and the dividend continues to grow.
CounterGrowth scores only 2.0 and earnings growth scores 0.0, so quality is not translating into earnings expansion.
Supply chain risk is concentrated in single-source resins and rubber components.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- No supply disruption forces a margin or delivery shortfall over the next 12 months.
CounterA supplier disruption or resin price spike could compress margins quickly with no alternative source.
Momentum is strong at 8.4 with price above the 200-day average and rising on-balance volume, but RSI is 90, which is heavily overbought after a 6.1% gap up.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day average without a sharp retracement.
CounterAn RSI of 90 and an extreme gap up often precede a pullback, and implied volatility of 112% shows how sharply the stock can move.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.2 |
| Op margin | 5.5 |
| Net margin | 3.3 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 87)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
| erm sentiment | 4.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $600,008 (0.007% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 3.2 |
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 10.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 7.8 |
- ▸Above max pain $85
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.2 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.4% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:92d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.16
Upside
-2.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.16 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2, Momentum at 6.5, and Sentiment at 6.1; the weakest are Growth at 2.0, Technical at 3.3, and Peer rank at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.16 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Limited Upside To TargetTripped
Trip ifPrice exceeds the $141.16 analyst target, taking upside below 0% from the current 2.9%.
- P3Solid Financial Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from the current 8.
- P4Single Source Supplier Risk
Trip ifGross margin falls more than 200 basis points YoY from a single-source supply disruption.
- P5Overbought Momentum
Trip ifPrice drops below the $131.02 stop level from the current $137.20.