Value
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 7.5 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.92
- ▸Attractively valued
ASR · Why this verdict
Why Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The business offers attractive valuation at a forward P/E of 11.9x and solid operating margins, but three of the last four quarters missed consensus estimates by wide margins, growth is weak, and only about 5% headroom remains to the analyst target — leaving an unfavorable risk/reward despite improving technical signals.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward P/E of 11.9x, a PEG of 0.92, and strong operating margins of 26% together with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicate a fundamentally sound business trading at a reasonable price relative to its earnings power. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E re-rates above 14x over the next year as earnings delivery improves and investors close the discount. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterAttractive headline multiples are undermined by only 34% of net income converting to free cash flow — flagged as an earnings quality concern — meaning the reported earnings power may overstate the cash the business actually generates. | ||
Free cash flow represents only 34% of reported net income — identified as an earnings quality red flag — raising questions about whether the strong reported margins translate into cash returns, particularly given the yield trap warning on the dividend. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow relative to net income rises above 60% for 2 consecutive quarters, resolving the conversion gap. | →Stable |
| CounterA cash conversion gap can reflect timing differences in capital expenditures or working capital rather than structural impairment; if the investment cycle moderates, FCF could improve without underlying business deterioration. | ||
Three of the last four quarters missed consensus estimates, with surprise rates of -17.1%, -25.9%, and -34.8%, and the overall average surprise across the period is -18.5% — indicating a consistent pattern of over-promising and under-delivering. Earnings | EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the miss pattern has genuinely reversed. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one beat in the period came in at +3.75%, showing the business is capable of exceeding estimates when conditions align; a single quarter of improvement can change the trajectory if demand recovers. | ||
Despite a death cross in the moving averages, MACD is improving, volume is accumulating, and the momentum score has recovered to 7.6 — the notes characterize the current position as a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness, suggesting a possible recovery setup. Momentum breakdown | Price advances more than 10% above the current level of $301 and closes above all key moving averages within 3 months, confirming the recovery. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA death cross with only 4.9% upside to the analyst target and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.75 leaves little margin for error; if the momentum improvement stalls, downside could exceed the available upside. | ||
A forward P/E of 11.9x, a PEG of 0.92, and strong operating margins of 26% together with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicate a fundamentally sound business trading at a reasonable price relative to its earnings power.
Tripped→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E re-rates above 14x over the next year as earnings delivery improves and investors close the discount.
CounterAttractive headline multiples are undermined by only 34% of net income converting to free cash flow — flagged as an earnings quality concern — meaning the reported earnings power may overstate the cash the business actually generates.
Free cash flow represents only 34% of reported net income — identified as an earnings quality red flag — raising questions about whether the strong reported margins translate into cash returns, particularly given the yield trap warning on the dividend.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow relative to net income rises above 60% for 2 consecutive quarters, resolving the conversion gap.
CounterA cash conversion gap can reflect timing differences in capital expenditures or working capital rather than structural impairment; if the investment cycle moderates, FCF could improve without underlying business deterioration.
Three of the last four quarters missed consensus estimates, with surprise rates of -17.1%, -25.9%, and -34.8%, and the overall average surprise across the period is -18.5% — indicating a consistent pattern of over-promising and under-delivering.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the miss pattern has genuinely reversed.
CounterThe one beat in the period came in at +3.75%, showing the business is capable of exceeding estimates when conditions align; a single quarter of improvement can change the trajectory if demand recovers.
Despite a death cross in the moving averages, MACD is improving, volume is accumulating, and the momentum score has recovered to 7.6 — the notes characterize the current position as a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness, suggesting a possible recovery setup.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price advances more than 10% above the current level of $301 and closes above all key moving averages within 3 months, confirming the recovery.
CounterA death cross with only 4.9% upside to the analyst target and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.75 leaves little margin for error; if the momentum improvement stalls, downside could exceed the available upside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.9 |
| ROA | 7.7 |
| Gross margin | 5.3 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| FCF quality | 2.8 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 26%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 34% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
1.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
1.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 16, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 31%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.5 |
| quality rank | 3.3 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.3 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 4.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 9.2 |
| volatility | 5.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.33
Catalyst
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 0 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.44
Upside
+14.4%
Downside
5.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 16, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Value at 8.3 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:1.0<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.3, Technical at 7.5, and Quality at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 1.0, Growth at 1.4, and Catalyst at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.44 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Quality MarginsTripped
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x, indicating the discount has been closed.
- P2Persistent Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Poor Cash Conversion Quality Gap
Trip ifFree cash flow relative to net income rises above 60% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Recovery Momentum Unconfirmed
Trip ifRSI falls below 35 and on-balance volume turns negative for 30 consecutive days, confirming the recovery has failed.