Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 7.5 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.92
- ▸Attractively valued
ASR · Why this verdict
Why Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward P/E of 11.9x, a PEG of 0.92, and strong operating margins of 26% together with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicate a fundamentally sound business trading at a reasonable price relative to its earnings power. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E re-rates above 14x over the next year as earnings delivery improves and investors close the discount. | →Stable |
| CounterAttractive headline multiples are undermined by only 34% of net income converting to free cash flow — flagged as an earnings quality concern — meaning the reported earnings power may overstate the cash the business actually generates. | ||
Free cash flow represents only 34% of reported net income — identified as an earnings quality red flag — raising questions about whether the strong reported margins translate into cash returns, particularly given the yield trap warning on the dividend. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow relative to net income rises above 60% for 2 consecutive quarters, resolving the conversion gap. | →Stable |
| CounterA cash conversion gap can reflect timing differences in capital expenditures or working capital rather than structural impairment; if the investment cycle moderates, FCF could improve without underlying business deterioration. | ||
Three of the last four quarters missed consensus estimates, with surprise rates of -17.1%, -25.9%, and -34.8%, and the overall average surprise across the period is -18.5% — indicating a consistent pattern of over-promising and under-delivering. Earnings | EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the miss pattern has genuinely reversed. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one beat in the period came in at +3.75%, showing the business is capable of exceeding estimates when conditions align; a single quarter of improvement can change the trajectory if demand recovers. | ||
Despite a death cross in the moving averages, MACD is improving, volume is accumulating, and the momentum score has recovered to 7.6 — the notes characterize the current position as a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness, suggesting a possible recovery setup. Momentum breakdown | Price advances more than 10% above the current level of $301 and closes above all key moving averages within 3 months, confirming the recovery. | →Stable |
| CounterA death cross with only 4.9% upside to the analyst target and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.75 leaves little margin for error; if the momentum improvement stalls, downside could exceed the available upside. | ||
A forward P/E of 11.9x, a PEG of 0.92, and strong operating margins of 26% together with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicate a fundamentally sound business trading at a reasonable price relative to its earnings power.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E re-rates above 14x over the next year as earnings delivery improves and investors close the discount.
CounterAttractive headline multiples are undermined by only 34% of net income converting to free cash flow — flagged as an earnings quality concern — meaning the reported earnings power may overstate the cash the business actually generates.
Free cash flow represents only 34% of reported net income — identified as an earnings quality red flag — raising questions about whether the strong reported margins translate into cash returns, particularly given the yield trap warning on the dividend.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow relative to net income rises above 60% for 2 consecutive quarters, resolving the conversion gap.
CounterA cash conversion gap can reflect timing differences in capital expenditures or working capital rather than structural impairment; if the investment cycle moderates, FCF could improve without underlying business deterioration.
Three of the last four quarters missed consensus estimates, with surprise rates of -17.1%, -25.9%, and -34.8%, and the overall average surprise across the period is -18.5% — indicating a consistent pattern of over-promising and under-delivering.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that the miss pattern has genuinely reversed.
CounterThe one beat in the period came in at +3.75%, showing the business is capable of exceeding estimates when conditions align; a single quarter of improvement can change the trajectory if demand recovers.
Despite a death cross in the moving averages, MACD is improving, volume is accumulating, and the momentum score has recovered to 7.6 — the notes characterize the current position as a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness, suggesting a possible recovery setup.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price advances more than 10% above the current level of $301 and closes above all key moving averages within 3 months, confirming the recovery.
CounterA death cross with only 4.9% upside to the analyst target and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.75 leaves little margin for error; if the momentum improvement stalls, downside could exceed the available upside.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The business offers attractive valuation at a forward P/E of 11.9x and solid operating margins, but three of the last four quarters missed consensus estimates by wide margins, growth is weak, and only about 5% headroom remains to the analyst target — leaving an unfavorable risk/reward despite improving technical signals.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.9 |
| ROA | 7.7 |
| Gross margin | 5.3 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| FCF quality | 2.8 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 26%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 34% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
1.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 3.3 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 0.4 |
| 52w position | 6.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 9.6 |
| volatility | 5.0 |
| put call | 8.0 |
| implied vol | 4.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.7 |
Catalyst
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:16d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.0<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.5>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.02
Upside
+0.3%
Downside
12.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.0<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.02 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5, and Quality at 7.3; the weakest are Growth at 1.4, Catalyst at 2.7, and Technical at 3.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.02 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Quality Margins
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x, indicating the discount has been closed.
- P2Persistent Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Poor Cash Conversion Quality Gap
Trip ifFree cash flow relative to net income rises above 60% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Recovery Momentum Unconfirmed
Trip ifRSI falls below 35 and on-balance volume turns negative for 30 consecutive days, confirming the recovery has failed.