Value
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.56
- ▸Attractively valued
ASR · Why this verdict
Why Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste offers strong margins (25%) and a 47% margin of safety at a forward P/E of 11.2x, but three consecutive earnings misses, negative cash conversion and a downtrend keep the case unproven.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The airport operator shows strong margins of 25%, a 7/9 Piotroski F-Score and a quality score of 6.5/10. Quality breakdown | Margins should stay above 20% and the Piotroski F-Score at 7/9 or better over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings quality is flagged as a red flag, with free cash flow at -19% of net income, so strong reported margins are not turning into cash. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 11.2x with a 47% margin of safety and a value score of 7.7/10. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 14x while earnings stabilize over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe PEG of 1.55 is not cheap and earnings growth scores only 2.4/10, so the low multiple may reflect weak growth, not a bargain. | ||
ASR missed EPS estimates in the last 3 consecutive quarters (-7.2%, -13.9%, -17.1%) with an average surprise of -8.6%. Earnings | EPS should meet or beat estimates at the next report on 2027-02-23 to end the miss streak. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe misses are narrowing from -17.1% to -7.2% most recently, and the February 2026 quarter was a 3.75% beat, so the trend may be bottoming. | ||
Free cash flow is negative at -19% of net income and the dividend is flagged as a yield trap (high yield but unsafe), with leverage (debt-to-equity 1.5) adding a -1.0 penalty. Catalyst breakdown | Free cash flow should turn positive above 50% of net income for the dividend to look sustainable. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAirport operators have heavy, lumpy capital spending on concessions and expansion, so negative free cash flow can be temporary and tied to growth investment. | ||
The stock sits below its 200-day moving average with a 3.5% 30-day slope decline, but the MACD is improving and RSI is 64, a recovery setup after a death cross. Chart pattern detection | Momentum should recover above 4.5/10 and price should hold above the $237.36 stop. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume shows distribution and the death cross is a hard technical block, so the recovery could fail. | ||
The airport operator shows strong margins of 25%, a 7/9 Piotroski F-Score and a quality score of 6.5/10.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should stay above 20% and the Piotroski F-Score at 7/9 or better over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings quality is flagged as a red flag, with free cash flow at -19% of net income, so strong reported margins are not turning into cash.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 11.2x with a 47% margin of safety and a value score of 7.7/10.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 14x while earnings stabilize over the next 12 months.
CounterThe PEG of 1.55 is not cheap and earnings growth scores only 2.4/10, so the low multiple may reflect weak growth, not a bargain.
ASR missed EPS estimates in the last 3 consecutive quarters (-7.2%, -13.9%, -17.1%) with an average surprise of -8.6%.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat estimates at the next report on 2027-02-23 to end the miss streak.
CounterThe misses are narrowing from -17.1% to -7.2% most recently, and the February 2026 quarter was a 3.75% beat, so the trend may be bottoming.
Free cash flow is negative at -19% of net income and the dividend is flagged as a yield trap (high yield but unsafe), with leverage (debt-to-equity 1.5) adding a -1.0 penalty.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should turn positive above 50% of net income for the dividend to look sustainable.
CounterAirport operators have heavy, lumpy capital spending on concessions and expansion, so negative free cash flow can be temporary and tied to growth investment.
The stock sits below its 200-day moving average with a 3.5% 30-day slope decline, but the MACD is improving and RSI is 64, a recovery setup after a death cross.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover above 4.5/10 and price should hold above the $237.36 stop.
CounterFalling on-balance volume shows distribution and the death cross is a hard technical block, so the recovery could fail.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.2 |
| ROA | 6.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -19% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.2 |
| EPS growth | 2.4 |
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 79)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.5 |
| quality rank | 3.3 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.7 |
| 52w position | 4.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 5.6 |
| put call | 8.5 |
| implied vol | 3.9 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.0 |
Catalyst
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.3 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:111d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.9>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.42
Upside
+6.2%
Downside
14.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 79
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.42 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8, and Sentiment at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 2.5, Catalyst at 2.9, and Peer rank at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.42 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Margins Solid Fundamentals
Trip ifNet margin falls below 15% from current 25%.
- P2Attractive Valuation Margin Of Safety
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 16x from current 11.2x.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Negative Cash Conversion Yield Trap
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income rises above 50% from current -19%.
- P5Downtrend Recovery Setup
Trip ifShare price falls below $237.36 from current $250.86.