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ASRGrupo Aeroportuario del SuresteSell6.0·$257.33+0.12%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The business offers attractive valuation at a forward P/E of 11.9x and solid operating margins, but three of the last four quarters missed consensus estimates by wide margins, growth is weak, and only about 5% headroom remains to the analyst target — leaving an unfavorable risk/reward despite improving technical signals.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Quality MarginsDeteriorating
  • Poor Cash Conversion Quality GapStable
  • Persistent Earnings Miss PatternStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)VALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Airports & Air Services

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $257.33: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V., together with its subsidiaries, holds concessions to operate, maintain, and develop airports in the southeast region of Mexico. The company operates through Cancún, Aerostar, Airplan, Mérida, Villahermosa, Holding & Services,... Read more

$257.33+14.7% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#1 of 5 Airports & Air Services
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.23%(5y avg 2.36%)Payout152.39%at-risk
Stop $246.03Target $295.10(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$339.20+31.8%9 analysts
$295.10our TP
$257.33price
$339.20mean
$392

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $257.33: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 42. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 9/11 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-05
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 21, 202646d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.5 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.4
P/E (Fwd)10.8
Mkt Cap
EV/EBITDA1.9
Profit Mgn26.1%
ROE22.8%
Rev Growth9.9%
Beta0.18
Dividend2.23%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV43%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
2.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 5.0>=4.5A.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 46d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $249.58Resistance $276.98

Price Targets

$246
$295
A.Upside+14.7%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts22
Consensus4.0/5
Avg Target$339

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-21 (46d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $257.33: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 42. Prior stop was $246.03. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ASR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $295.10 (+14.7% upside). Prior stop was $246.03. Stop-loss: $246.03.

What are the risks of investing in ASR?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ASR overvalued or undervalued?

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste trades at a P/E of 13.4 (forward 10.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ASR?

22 analysts cover ASR with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $339.

What does Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste do?Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V., together with its subsidiaries, holds concessions to operate,...

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V., together with its subsidiaries, holds concessions to operate, maintain, and develop airports in the southeast region of Mexico. The company operates through Cancún, Aerostar, Airplan, Mérida, Villahermosa, Holding & Services, and Other segments. It operates the airports in Cozumel, Huatulco, Mérida, Minatitlán, Oaxaca, Tapachula, Veracruz, and Villahermosa; and offers aeronautical services, such as passenger, aircraft landing and parking, passenger walkways, and airport security. The company also provides non-aeronautical services, such as leasing of space at its airports to retailers, restaurants, airlines, and other commercial tenants; luggage check-in, sorting and handling, aircraft servicing and cleaning, cargo handling, aircraft catering services, and assistance with passenger boarding and deplaning; and open-air parking lots for commercial vehicle operators, including taxi, bus and other ground transport operators; and other commercial activities. In addition, the company operates various airports in Colombia, including the Enrique Olaya Herrera Airport in Medellín, the José María Córdova International Airport in Rionegro, the Los Garzones Airport in Montería, the Antonio Roldán Betancourt Airport in Carepa, the El Caraño Airport in Quibdó, and the Las Brujas Airport in Corozal; and holds a lease to operate, maintain, and develop the Luis Muñoz Marín International Airport in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.

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